Indicators of Climate Change in the UK

Proposal for publication, dissemination and updating

Aim

This proposal is part of the pilot study, whose aims included developing a mechanism for collating and reporting information on indicators of climate change in a publicly accessible form on a regular basis.

We propose the following stages.

Stage 1. Agreement on the initial list of indicators (Sept - Oct 1998).

A list of 35 candidate indicators has been proposed in the report to DETR, delivered in August 1998. These indicators are those that the authors consider meet the criteria defined in the original proposal, taking into account comments from the initial round of reviewers. Feedback is now required from DETR on whether this list is satisfactory as an initial set, suitable for publication, bearing in mind that the list can be revised in future years. Decisions are also required on whether the format and text in the report is suitable for the publication.

This feedback may be given at a meeting at DETR on 18 September 1998.

Stage 2. Publication of the report on Indicators of Climate Change (Oct 1998- Jan 1999)

The original tender (25 July 1997) included a separate proposal and costing for the publication of the report. Since July 1997, (i) CEH has cancelled its arrangement with the Stationery Office and may prefer to publish most of its publications itself, and (ii) the new CEH publication officer is Karen Goodsir, located at ITE, Monks Wood.

We now propose that the report be published by CEH with the following Contents:

Title page - Eds MGR Cannell and JP Palutikof

Contents

Contributors

Preface - by David Warrlow and Penny Bramwell (inviting comment and feedback)

Summary - largely as written

Introduction - by Melvin Cannell, largely as written

The Indicators (including Appendix material in small point-size with each indicator.)

Environmental Change Network - by Terry Parr, largely as written

Overview - by Jean Palutikof, to be written

The timetable for the publication will be as follows:

1 October 1998: decisions made by DETR on the list of indicators, text on each indicator and publication Contents.

15 October 1998: assuming no major changes, all material will be compiled by Melvin Cannell.

1 November 1998: edited files will be sent to Karen Goodsir to prepare camera -ready layout for the printers, following the general format of the Mild Winter and Hot Summer reports.

11 December 1998; all material delivered to the printers.

15 January 1999: publication.

15-20 January 1999: distribution free to a list of recipients agreed with DETR

Subsequently: distribution free on request to a limit of 1000 copies.

The costs in 1998/99 will be as follows.

JP Palutikof (UEA) 5 days at £350/day (editing) (inc 40% o/h)	£1750

MGR Cannell (CEH) 5 days at £214 /day (editing)	£1070

K Goodsir (CEH) (AO)30 days at £ 62/day (layout)	£1860

AN Other (CEH) (SSO) 3 days at £132/day (copy editing)	£ 396

KJ Potter (CEH) (PS) 5 days at £62/day (distribution)	£ 310

Superannuation (CEH staff)	£ 533

Overheads at 140% incl superann (CEH staff)	£5587

TOTAL STAFFTIME	£11506

Travel and subsistence	£ 450

Printing 1000 copies and delivery to ITE, Edinburgh	£4600

Package and posting costs at £1.5 per copy	£1500

TOTAL PRINTING AND DISTRIBUTION	£6100

TOTAL	£18056

3. Establishment of a Web-site on Climate Change Indicators (Oct - Dec 1998)

It is proposed that a shortened version of the report is placed on a web site hosted at ITE, Edinburgh, managed by Tommy Brown (supervised by R Milne), with open access worldwide. The web site will be advertized in the hard-copy report and there will be pointers to it from web pages at DETR, and contributing organizations such as the Climate Research Unit (UEA), Environmental Change Network, Institute and Institute of Hydrology and British Trust for Ornithology.

The website will have a three-level hierarchy, as illustrated in Figures 1, 2 and 3 attached.

Level 1 (Fig 1)

This begins with a preface from David Warrilow (and Melvin Cannell?) explaining the purpose of the indicators, the existence of the full report and inviting comments and suggestions. This is then followed by a shortened version of the Introduction in the report (please ignore the illustrative text in Fig 1).

In the left margin, there are then pointers to an overview (abbreviated from the report - to be written) and to four broad categories of indicators (see Fig 1). Clicking on one of these five options will move to level 2. To illustrate, suppose we clicked on 'Insects and birds'.

Level 2 (Fig 2)

This level lists the indicators and 'specific indicators' within each of the four broad categories. Thus, Fig 2 lists the indicators for 'Insects and birds'. Clicking on any one indicator will move to the next level. To illustrate, suppose we clicked on 'Dates of Insect Appearance and Activity'.

Level 3 (Fig 3)

This level will automatically display the time series graph for the chosen indicator, with a complete legend (Fig 3 is incomplete), and abbreviated text taken from the main report, including the definition of the specific indicator(s), sensitivity to climate and other factors, the time trend, source of data and key references.

Options that need to be considered are:

- whether to include the related weather variable with the graph of the indicator, as in the main report; this would be involve more work:

- the level of detail to be given in the text - we could place the entire text from the report on the web, which would be less work;

- access to the raw data; it is proposed that this is denied (only the graph is shown) in order to preserve confidentiality requested by some data suppliers.

The web site will be run on an Intel platform (probably Windows NT) so that the graphs can be generated from the datasets in real-time (ie calling the data file and creating the graph rather than calling a ready-made graph). Alternatives would require more time and mean that the graphs would need to be updated every time the data were updated.

The costs in 1998/99 will be:

Melvin Cannell (CEH) 8 days at £214/day (editing)	£1712

Ronnie Milne (SSO) 1 day at £132/day (supervision)	£ 132

Tommy Brown (SO) 40 days at £80/day (web site)	£ 3200

Overheads at 140% incl superann.	£7381

TOTAL STAFF TIME	£12106

Software (Microsoft Frontpage 98; Ulead Web Razor)	£110

TOTAL	£12535

4. Annual Update of the Website Databases in 2000, 2001 and 2002.

The database on the website (and hence the time series graphs that can be drawn) will be updated between January and March in 2000, 2001 and 2002. A period is specified, because not all data are available in January. In a few cases, data may not be available every year.

An Overview for the previous year will be added each April, highlighting notable trends and events, written by MGR Cannell.

The responsibilities each year will be:

- Jean Palutikof and Mike Hulme will send UEA Indicator updates directly to ITE, Edinburgh. These will be single numbers for each specific indicator for the year in question.

- Tim Sparks will assemble all non-UEA Indicator update data and send them to ITE, Edinburgh.

- Tommy Brown will update the website databases, supervised by Ronnie Milne (ITE, Edinburgh) and produce a printout of the new time series. There will be no need to update the graphs as they are generated in real time from the data.

- Melvin Cannell will write a new Overview for the previous year which will be circulated for comment to Jean Palutikof, Mike Hulme, Tim Sparks and DETR before being added to the website.

- Melvin Cannell will report to DETR all the comments and suggestions received on the Indicator list.

The stafftime required will be :UEA 5 days/year; Melvin Cannell(CEH) 4 days/year; Tim Sparks 5days/year per year; Tommy Brown 5 days/year.

We are advised that there will be no charge from the British Trust for Ornithology and IH for data, but we would wish to add a £500/year contingency in order to secure data which requires stafftime to extract in other organizations. We assume no travel and subsistence.

The summary costs are given below assuming 5% annual inflation.

5. Revision of the Indicator list and new Proposals for the Way Ahead

It is suggested that, in 2002, a new contract is placed to revise the Indicator list, taking into account:

- comments received from recipients of the 1999 publication and website visitors,

- the time series that will then be available from the Environmental Change Network, and

- any developments in the UK climate, user needs and other Indicator lists (eg by SEPA, MAFF and overseas).

Subsequent steps may involve a new publication and/or a revision of the web site, with a new agreement on updating.

Summary costs (£) Production and distribution of the report, establishment of a web-site, updating the web-site until 2002.(5% annual inflation).

1998/99	1999/2000	2000/2001	2001/2002

CEH Staff *	8715	1911	2058	2120

Superann	1265	277	299	308

T & S	450

Printing	4600

Recurrent/contingency1610	500	500	500

Subcontract to UEA	1750	1838	1930	2026

CEH overheads	12201	2675	2881	2968

TOTALS	30591	7201	7668	7922

GRAND TOTAL	53382

* Salary plus NI

Melvin Cannell

August 1998