date: Tue Sep 23 16:30:42 2008
from: Phil Jones
subject: Fwd: UKCIP08 launch delay
to: c.goodess@uea.ac.uk
Clare,
Keep this to yourself for the time being! It will affect getting Maureen on
the project. Kathryn is happy to do this, but needs a CV from her. I've
emailed Maureen, but no response yet.
I will now email Chris!
Cheers
Phil
X-Authentication-Warning: ueamailgate01.uea.ac.uk: defang set sender to
using -f
X-VirusChecked: Checked
X-Env-Sender: kathryn.humphrey@DEFRA.GSI.GOV.UK
X-Msg-Ref: server-6.tower-89.messagelabs.com!1222180998!30695963!1
X-StarScan-Version: 5.5.12.14.2; banners=-,-,-
X-Originating-IP: [195.92.40.48]
X-IronPort-AV: E=Sophos;i="4.32,452,1217804400";
d="scan'208,217";a="20567710"
Subject: UKCIP08 launch delay
Date: Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:43:16 +0100
X-MS-Has-Attach:
X-MS-TNEF-Correlator:
Thread-Topic: UKCIP08 launch delay
Thread-Index: Ackdirawc0yRLGYoQay2Fy1dfdWsnA==
Priority: Urgent
From: "Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA)"
To: "Ag Stevens" ,
"Anna Steynor" ,
"Bryan Lawrence" ,
"Butt, Adrian (CEOSA)" ,
"Chris Kilsby" ,
"Colin Harpham" ,
"David Sexton" ,
"Geoff Jenkins" ,
"Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA)" ,
"Jason Lowe" ,
"Kevin Marsh" ,
"Mark Elkington" ,
"Paul Bowyer" ,
"Phil James" ,
"Phil Jones" ,
"Richard Westaway" ,
"Roger Street" ,
"Sarah Callaghan"
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 23 Sep 2008 14:43:17.0286 (UTC) FILETIME=[B7305460:01C91D8A]
X-Canit-CHI2: 0.00
X-Bayes-Prob: 0.0001 (Score 0, tokens from: @@RPTN, f028)
X-Spam-Score: 0.00 () [Hold at 5.00] HTML_MESSAGE
X-CanItPRO-Stream: UEA:f028 (inherits from UEA:default,base:default)
X-Canit-Stats-ID: 9658921 - 73c0d05562b3 (trained as not-spam)
X-Antispam-Training-Forget:
[1]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=9658921&m=73c0d05562b3&c=f
X-Antispam-Training-Nonspam:
[2]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=9658921&m=73c0d05562b3&c=n
X-Antispam-Training-Spam: [3]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=9658921&m=73c0d05562b3&c=s
X-Scanned-By: CanIt (www . roaringpenguin . com) on 139.222.131.184
Dear all,
MOHC have found a problem through their sensitivity testing with the calculation of the
discrepancy term in that it is throwing out odd results for winter mean temperature in
Scotland, proportion of dry days in Scotland and specific humidity. They have suggested
to us that the best option for dealing with this is to try out another method of
calculating the discrepancy which they believe will work better, and if it does, this
will involve re-doing all of the PDFs given that the same discrepancy calculation is
used across the board. Defra have agreed that this seems to be the most sensible
approach, which will inevitably lead to a delay in the launch.
Next steps therefore involve:
- Me and MOHC coming up with a line to give out on the reason for the delay that we
can all give out to people. Geoff is going to help me write this. This line will need
to go the Ministers, then the steering group, then out more widely, so for now please
dont pass on that the launch is delayed to anyone, before we have a standard line to
give out. If you have to, just pretend its still 20^th November for now! We should
have a line by tomorrow and let Ministers know a day or so afterwards so should be able
to let the SG know this week.
- I need an updated project plan from all of you combined to start to think about a
new launch date. I have suggested February to colleagues here to test the water and
there havent been huge cries of woe, but I need to know what you think is sensible first
and we also want to wait to see the first results of MOHCs re-analysis before agreeing a
new launch date. The sooner I can get a revised project plan the better.
- We need to decide if we want to call the project UKCIP09. Thoughts?
- Colleagues here are keen to now incorporate a peer review as we are not tied to
the November launch deadline. Geoff and I have discussed ways of doing this before,
which basically involve sending the methodology out to a few key experts and asking for
comments within a 4 week period or so.
- I need to check who is waiting for the data to inform research or policy so that
we can deal with their needs. If you know of any projects that are waiting for the data
please let me know.
Thats a bit of a brain dump, but please ring me to discuss if you have any further
queries especially about what work you should now be doing given that the PDFs are
likely to change. Ill forward another email shortly with MOHCs suggested timing for
re-doing the PDFs to help you plan your own timings.
Kind Regards,
Kathryn
Kathryn Humphrey
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Team, Defra
Zone 3F Ergon House, Horseferry Road, London, SW1P 3JR
tel 0207 238 3362 fax 0207 238 3341
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)
This email and any attachments is intended for the named recipient only.
If you have received it in error you have no authority to use, disclose,
store or copy any of its contents and you should destroy it and inform
the sender.
Whilst this email and associated attachments will have been checked
for known viruses whilst within Defra systems we can accept no
responsibility once it has left our systems.
Communications on Defra's computer systems may be monitored and/or
recorded to secure the effective operation of the system and for other
lawful purposes.
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------