date: Fri Jul 10 11:30:05 2009
from: Phil Jones
subject: Re: Past temperatures
to: "Ken Mourin"
Ken,
You've obviously been to the site, but the page is
[1]http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html
The most relevant chapter to proving the warming is down to us is
Ch 9.
The current warming cannot be explained unless climate models are
told about increases in greenhouse gases. Without this, with 3 large
volcanic eruptions and a slight decline in solar output, we should be
cooling.
Only back for today. Away all next week. Here again from July 20.
Best Regards
Phil
At 20:34 08/07/2009, you wrote:
Dear Professor Jones
Many thanks for your prompt reply - I'd be delighted to have references to past
global temperatures and CO2 levels, for my sources are I suspect secondary, and I
haven't been able to track down the originals. They suggests that only on one occasion,
about 125,000 years ago, has the sea level risen above present levels - and that sea
levels are now steady.
Your last para says that CO2 levels are rising faster than ever before. This may be
totally irrelevant IF CO2 does not cause a rise in temperature. The graphs I have
available show that temperature rose 4-1200 years BEFORE the CO2, and the CO2 remained
high for up to 20,000 years after the temperature returned to normal. This would
suggest that temperature rises caused the increased CO2 release, probably from the sea
and the wetlands. One factor I have yet to see mentioned is that the greatly increased
energy usage of the last hundred years has resulted in higher heat output from simple
thermodynamics - energy expended tends to end up as heat.
So far I remain unconvinced by the IPCC reports - I have downloaded and partly read
the one you kindly drew my attention to. I also have previously read most of the Idso
and Singer report of the NIPCC at www heartlands.org. and the earlier NIPCC counterblast
which exposed some of the gross errors ( the J-shaped curve, the fiddling of the
figures, the political manipulation of the final report , the false attribution to many
scientists who were not really involved, etc.)
Sorry if I sound an unregenerate "denier", but I am genuinely perplexed, and also
fearful of the enormous economic costs of political actions based on what seems to be
unscientific and frankly bandwagoning politicians. I also believe that the earth has
much more comprehensive corrective capabilities than we currently give it credit for.
Furthermore, as a few East Coast denizens have shown recently, it only requires a few
men and a bucket and spade or two (loosely speaking!) to build up coastal defences to
stop maritime flooding. More attention to drainage ditches and the slowing of water
drainage could help a lot of inland damage too.
Rant over! I look forward to hearing from you further.
Kindest regards
Ken Mourin
13 Quebec Road - PLEASE NOTE THE CORRECT NUMBER - an draft template crept
into use.
Dereham NR19 2DR
e-mail: ken.mourin@virgin.net (though I will be changing this in a couple of weeks -
I'll send an update).
tel: 01362-692989
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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