cc: Phil Jones
date: Fri, 6 Dec 1996 13:32:02 +1000 (EST)
from: Convention Network
subject: Re: re-submitted other two abstracts
to: yhduan@fudan.ihep.ac.cn
REPLY TO: Prof Zeng-Hao Qin
CC: Phil Jones, University of East Anglia, UK
DATE: 4 December, 1996
RE: IAMAS/IAPSO - JULY 1997
Thank you for submitting your abstract for the 1997 Joint Assemblies of IAMAS-IAPSO.
Title: Sea Level Change for Shanghai and Its Adjacent Waters
Session Name: Palaeoclimate in the southern hemisphere
Session Code: JMP17
Abstract Number: JMP17k
Paper Status: Under Review
Convenor: Phil Jones, University of East Anglia, UK
A copy of your abstract have been forwarded to the Convenor, Phil Jones, University of East Anglia, UK. You will be notified in March 1997 of your abstract acceptance/non acceptance. Please note your abstract number is to be used as a reference for all further communication.
If you have any queries please do not hesitate to contact me.
NOTE TO Phil Jones, University of East Anglia, UK: If you receive any abstracts direct please ensure they are forwarded to Convention Network.
Lucy Krelle
At 02:52 PM 11/28/96 BST-8, you wrote:
> Nov.28,1996
>
> Dear Mr. Krelle,
>
> Thank you for your reply.
> You say you haven't received my other two abstracts.In fact I sent
>them as an attachment document in the form of Word-perfect in the last
>e-mail to you.Here I send them as Text form,named
>
> a.Sea level change for Shanghai and its adjacent waters.(JPM17)
> ---------
> b.Impact of sea level rise on the tide,storm surge and probable
> highest water level in Shanghai.(IP12)
> ------
> If there are any question,trouble you to contact with me.
> With best regards,
>
> Qin Zeng-hao
>
>--------------------------------------------------------------------
>--------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> SEA LEVEL CHANGE FOR SHANGHAI AND
> ITS ADJACENT WATERS
>
> ZENG-HAO QIN , YONGPING LI AND YIHONG DUAN
> (SHANGHAI TYPHOON INSTITUTE, SHANGHAI,CHINA)
>
>
> Utilizing the historical tide-gauge records(1912-1993)
>and statistical approaches, two issues,the
>characteristics of the annually mean sea level changes in
>the last decades and their long-term amplitudes
>estimation in the coming years for Shanghai, are dealt
>with in this paper in the background of the monthly mean
>sea level change for the northern Pacific.
> In general, the mean eustatic sea level(ESL) obviously
>rises for the Pacific in twentieth century on the basis
>of an analysis of the monthly mean ESL records of both
>tide stations over the Pacific and satellite ocean
>topography experiment(TOPEX). The average rising rate of
>the mean ESL differs from part to part and depends on the
>latitude of site. The rise of mean ESL was faster for the
>northern Pacific, covering Shanghai than that for the
>southern Pacific, whereas the rise of the mean ESL was
>slower for the eastern Pacific than that for the western
>Pacific.
> Locating at the eastern China Sea, the area of fastest
>rise in mean ESL in the ChinaAEs coastal waters, the
>average rate of rise in the mean ESL in Shanghai was
>approximately 0.9mm per year during the period 1912-1959
>and has rapidly increased to 2.0mm per year since 1960.
>After manipulation of band-pass filter the annually mean
>ESL for Shanghai varied periodically with predominately
>interannual and decade trends included.
> A statistical model fitting the variation of the mean
>ESL is established. It is shown from the model
>extrapolation that the mean ESL will rise 5cm and 11cm ,
>respectively relative to 1990 for Shanghai by the years
>of 2010 and 2030. As to the current ground subsidence
>mainly resulted from the over-exploitation of ground
>water and the average vertical crust deformation and its
>trend, it is estimated by the scientists from the
>Shanghai Institute of Rock and Geology that the average
>subsidence due to the long-term accumulation of ground
>water will be 10cm and 15cm ,respectively relative to
>1990 for Shanghai by the years of 2010 and 2030.
> The measurements of the average vertical crust
>deformation by VLBI and their linear extrapolation by the
>scientists from the Shanghai Observatory , Academic
>Sinica show that the local crust vertically subsides to
>2.0cm and 4.0cm ,respectively relative to 1990 for
>Shanghai in 2010 and 2030.
> The sum of the estimations to the mean ESL and average
>ground subsidence gives the mean relative sea level(RSL)
>will rise 17cm and 30cm,respectively relative to 1990 for
>Shanghai by the years of 2010 and 2030. Considering a
>variety of undetermined factors in mean RSL estimations,
>the reasonable values of the mean rise in RSL relative to
>1990 for Shanghai roughly amount to be 15-25cm in 2010
>and 25-35cm in 2030.
> Finally, the reasons why did the mean sea level rise
>for Shanghai are tentatively discussed.
>
>-------------------------------------------------------------
>
> IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE TIDE, STORM SURGE
> AND PROBABLE HIGHEST WATER LEVEL IN SHANGHAI
> YI-HONG DUAN, ZENG-HAO QIN AND YONG-PING LI
>
> (SHANGHAI TYPHOON INSTITUTE,SHANGHAI,CHINA)
>
> Tides and storm surges, caused by the estimated sea
>level rises in 2010 and 2030 for the coastal tide-
>stations in Shanghai,are numerically computed in this
>paper using a traditional nonlinear 2-D hydrodynamic
>model with slight revision. Estimation to the probable
>highest water levels resulting from the sea level rises
>in 2010 and 2030 are completed as well. It is shown that
>the coming sea level rise could result in a decrease in
>storm surges depending upon the track and intensity of
>the impinging tropical cyclone as well as the geographic
>location of the tide-station.
> The effect of the coming sea level rise on tide
>oscillates with the period as same as that of the tide.
>There are no effect of the sea level rise on tide at both
>high water and low water. Its effect on tide is positive
>for the duration of rise below the mean sea level,
>whereas the negative effect occurs for the duration of
>(ebb)fall. The opposite conclusion hold true in case it
>occurs below the mean sea level.
> The impact of the sea level rise on tide becomes
>intense when the amplitude of rising sea level increases.
> Three intense tropical cyclones impinging Shanghai and
>its neighborhood, are chosen in computation and
>intensities of these tropical cyclones are forced to
>altered hypothetically to ensure that the tropical
>cyclone case is profitable to the most dangerous storm
>surges happened to Shanghai. After nonlinearly matching
>the most dangerous storm surge with appropriate spring
>tide, the computational results give the probable highest
>water levels for Shanghai in 2010 and 2030 respectively
>to be 745cm and 752cm in the background of the known
>relative sea level rise estimation done by the present
>authors elsewhere. These figures seem to quite useful to
>the coastal engineering design in the future for Shanghai
>harbor. The method suggested may be effectual for other
>metropolis in dealing with the similarity.
>_______________________________________________________
>
>
>
>
>CONVENTION NETWORK
224 Rouse Street
Port Melbourne VIC 3207
AUSTRALIA
Telephone: +61 3 9646 4122
Facsimile: +61 3 9646 7737
E-mail: convnet@peg.apc.org