cc: richard.somerville@wanadoo.fr, mmanning@al.noaa.gov
date: Mon Jul 25 16:24:49 2005
from: Phil Jones
subject: Re: tropical cyclones
to: Kevin Trenberth , ssolomon@al.noaa.gov
Susan,
It is good news if Kerry has dropped off that BAMS paper, but we both think
he is still on.
Kerry would be a welcome addition to the CA list, but can we add him after
the FOD. We are rushing trying to complete other sections at the moment
and don't want to go back to sections we are happy with now.
So can we suggest Kerry is a reviewer, and if he feels it needs extensively
modifying we get him involved during the SOD process. If he's happy with our
draft on TCs it might be better having him outside the process than in, when
it comes to any flak later.
Phil
At 15:18 25/07/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote:
Hi Susan
FYI, I have had quite a few exchanges with Kerry after some contacts via Rick Anthes,
not too long ago. Kerry will be here first week of August and is giving a seminar. I
presume the seminar is on his paper coming out in Nature which I have a copy of and
which is already in our chapter. In it he develops a new destructive potential index
for tropical storms. It is similar to the ACE I used in the Science paper.
The latter is accumulated energy, relates to v**2. Kerry goes a step further and
computes dissipated which is related more to v**3, so it emphasizies the big guys more.
He concludes that this index "show a substantial upward trend beginning in the mid
1970s, roughly doubling since then. This trend is owing to trends both toward longer
storm lifetimes and toward greater storm intensity." This is global although he
focusses most on Atlantic and NW Pacific. It is difficult to go back before the
satellite era of the late 1960s.
A lot of our excahnges related to the Pielke et al paper cvoming out in BAMS. He was
approached by Pielke Jr and Landsea and he says he play a major role in toning it down,
and thus felt obligated to remain an author, in spite of the fact that the messages
there are in conflict with is Nature paper. I pointed out several such conflicts: the
BAMS article says we don't know enough Science to say anything useful: Kerry and I agree
we can do a lot better than that. And then his conclusion fits very well with mine,
drawn independently as given in my Science article. But last I heard he was still an
author?
As you know Kerry reviewed the ZOD, which had troubles and mixed stuff coming mainly
from Albert. The FOD has changed completely and has a major new figure. I would be
glad if Kerry reviews it; whether he needs to be CA is not clear at this point. I
would say not.
You are wlecome to review the text of that section. It has been stable now for some
time.
Thanks
Kevin
ssolomon@al.noaa.gov wrote:
Dear Kevin and Phil,
Informally via Richard Somerville, Kerry Emmanuel has today volunteered to serve
as a CA on the topic of tropical cyclones.
You may want to consider an option of sending him your draft text for that subsection,
if you think it would be practical
and helpful to iterate with him before your draft is due in the middle of August.
I am passing this on to you for information, recognizing that it is quite late for
that.
It may be worth noting that according to Richard, I understand that Kerry has
withdrawn his name from the Pielke/Landsea piece that is due to appear in BAMS, and that
Kerry has another
piece of his own on this topic that is submitted to Nature.
It is entirely your call.
best regards,
Susan
--
****************
Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu
Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/
P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318
Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax)
Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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