date: Tue Nov 2 08:42:36 2004
from: Phil Jones
subject: Re: Further to your E-mail on IPCC/AR4
to: "Hiroki Kondo"
Dear Hiroki,
In a little more detail then:
What we are after will be a box in the report of say 500-1000 words. It might include a
diagram, but it doesn't have to. It should discuss trends of tropical cyclones in all
basins
and discuss trends. Some of the trends may be due to better reporting, for example,
through
satellites seeing more storms that miss land entirely. Some regions are better covered
than others - maybe the Atlantic has the longest and best records, for example. Some text
on what causes variations from year to year (e.g. due to ENSO), but also the latest views
on whether some increases are due to human activities.
If you want to co-ordinate the views of a number of people then this will be fine. It
will be
easier for us to deal with one person. The draft will get reviewed several stages as with
all
IPCC reports. We are at the first stage, so a review will be started from mid-Jan onwards
by
people we nominate, then by anybody next summer, then governments in early 2006. If a
diagram is there we will need it updated with 2005 numbers later and maybe even with
2006 as publication will be in 2007.
The author would become a Contributing Author in the final chapter, so be named.
I also send a similar message yesterday to another Japanese colleague, Prof
Takehiko Mikami of Tokyo Met. University (MIKAMI Takehiko )
and he said he will also think about who a good person in Japan will be. I have known
Takehiko for a number of years.
As for writing style - more scientific than the 20th century climate review, but
readable to
most scientists and containing references. The latter is vital as all statements expressed
should be backed up by papers in the peer-review literature. Views have been made in the
literature, particularly by US scientists in Miami, but we are trying to get the
views/opinions
of others around the world.
Thanks for your time and efforts on the matter.
Cheers
Phil
At 08:05 02/11/2004, you wrote:
Dear Phil,
As I consult with several colleagues including those from Japan Meteorological
Agency, there seems to be experts and specialists in this field of research in Japan
dealing with not only tropical cyclones in western North Pacific (called Typhoons in
severe stage) but also other regions.
In order to facilitate your request most appropriately, it would be grateful if you
could further inform me your request in more detail (to what extent time scale of
statistics shoud be considered, or do you wish to discuss the relation of tropical
cyclone formation with climate variabilities or ENSO events, etc.), so that we could
identify exactly fitted person or forcal point
among our colleagues.
Best regards,
***********************************
Hiroki KONDO
Senior Scientist
Frontier Research Center for Global Change
3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku,
Yokohama, 236-0001 JAPAN
TEL: +81-45-778-5583
FAX: +81-45-778-5496
E-mail: [1]hkondo@jamstec.go.jp
********************************
> Dear Hiroki,
With Kevin Trenberth, I'm putting together the Atmospheric
Observations Chapter
of the next IPCC report (due in 2007). We are trying to find a Japanese
scientist (or maybe
a Chinese one) who could write a small box (say 500-100 words) about
tropical storms
(not just for East Asia, but other regions around the world) and whether
the number is
changing. I am aware of the high number that have affected Japan this
year, so I was
wondering if you know of someone in Japan, who writes on their changing
number
and often talks to the media. Any help with a contact name would be most
appreciated.
Best Regards
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [2]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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