date: Wed Dec 10 15:04:07 2003 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Fwd: Re: abstract for Clivar to: "raymond s. bradley" Your comments reinforce just what I feel about the selective (appropriately tuned) use of EBMs . I want to inject some results from our SOAP project (from the HadCM3 and ECHO-G ) runs (see http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/soap/ ). I think you know what I think about the 2000 year series ( as does Phil) . Of course it does not matter ( in the greater context of the infinite universe or the shrinking context of my own remaining span) who is on the author list - it might just help in the struggle to present a balanced view of the evidence if you sit on my end of the seesaw . My back is really greatly improved and I am suffering less from the occasional seize ups that do occur. I am 95 per cent certain to go to the Fritts meeting and will be happy to let you refund some of your Stellenbosch (never could spell it) wine bill that I am still paying off. As for what you say about Baltimore , I am concerned to say the least.. and might consider my own attendance. Best wishes to you and kisses to Jane Keith p.s.with regard to your comment about Cambridge, My older daughter is in her first year at Christ's ,, and loving it. At 09:56 AM 12/10/03 -0500, you wrote: I don't think it matters about the authorship of this...although it is true that you need 2 CRU boys to balance a Mann... If I could add any suggestion it would be to make it clear what you mean by: "several modelling centres have run climate simulations based on models with varying levels of complexity .." I don't think Mike is thinking of coupled AOGCMs here, which would be ideal, but mostly energy balance models and MICs, and it's hard to use these to look at anything but the very largest scales. Furthermore, the model output is very much determined by the time series of forcing that is selected, and the model sensitivity which essentially scales the range. Mike only likes these because they seem to match his idea of what went on in the last millennium, whereas he would savage them if they did not. Also--& I'm sure you agree--the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don't want to be associated with that 2000 year "reconstruction". I don't plan on going to the Clivar mtg (I assume this is the Baltimore one?). Being close to DC, no doubt it will attract a lot of nuts. I hope you are well & over your back problem. Will you be coming over for the "Fritts mtg" in Tucson in early April...I hope you will. We need to have few beers and try to get back onto the sunny side of what we do. It's been all aggravation and gloom around here, compounded by living in a country that has been taken over by fascists. Cambridge never looked so good... Ray At 08:10 AM 12/10/2003, you wrote: FOR YOUR INFO - IF MIKE AGREES I HOPE YOU WILL ALSO , AS SOME FURTHER ELEMENT OF BALANCE RE SCIENTIFIC JUDGEMENT AND INDEPENDENT OPINION WOULD BE FORTHCOMING Date: Wed, 10 Dec 2003 12:44:47 +0000 To: "Michael E. Mann" From: Keith Briffa Subject: Re: abstract for Clivar. Due soon! Mike I have edited and reformatted the abstract quite a bit , so you had better check it thoroughly again. Please note that have no real objection to Phil being a co author - other than a possible lack of balance with two CRU people. This would be helped considerably if we considered one more author ( Ray Bradley) perhaps. What do you think? Anyway, I am happy with the abstract now. We could include a whole group of "collaborating authors " (as in IPCC reports) to acknowledge the input "the usual subjects" will undoubtedly make. Cheers Keith At 12:36 PM 12/9/03 -0500, you wrote: Hi Keith, I hope all is well. Deadline for submitting our CLIVAR abstract vastly approaches, so I've taken the liberty of drafting an abstract, which I've attached in word format. Truth be told, I've borrowed liberally from some other recent abstracts, including ones that Phil and I wrote jointly--I vote we make Phil a co-author on the abstract for this reason, among others--is that ok w/ you? Please let me know if you have any comments, and feel free to edit and send me a revised version. Its presently exactly at the 400 word limit, so we can't lengthen, but we can remove. I need to submit this electronically by Friday, because I'll be travelling and away from my email through after the deadline after then. If I don't hear from you by Friday, I'll submit as is, w/ our three names on it... thanks in advance for any feedback you can provide, mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Raymond S. Bradley University Distinguished Professor Director, Climate System Research Center* Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Morrill Science Center 611 North Pleasant Street AMHERST, MA 01003-9297 Tel: 413-545-2120 Fax: 413-545-1200 *Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659 <[4]http://www.paleoclimate.org> Paleoclimatology Book Web Site: [5]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa[7]/