From: "Michael E. Mann" To: Keith Briffa Subject: Re: expert review comments on AR4 Date: Thu, 25 May 2006 13:16:21 -0400 Reply-to: mann@psu.edu Hi Keith, here is the submitted comment by Tapio Schneider, attached. Please do not pass along or show to others. Thanks in advance, mike Keith Briffa wrote: > Hi Mike > thanks for these comments and especially thanks for your remarks on > the effort of trying to produce a balanced picture of the current > state of things in the IPCC Chapter 6. In fact , I know that it is > already out of date and I am going to get particularly lambasted for > not discussing problems with recent tree responses to warming and > potential problems wit CO2 fertilization - I may have to add even more > text yet .You are absolutely correct that we had unreasonable trouble > from Susan , who was not as "hands off" as she might have been. I will > certainly study your comments carefully - as I always do . I would > rather reserve comment on the Crowley reconstruction til I speak > personally to you. I really hope that we can get an atmosphere of > constructive discussion that , I believe, must include some discussion > of the sceptics . Look forward to those drinks and some time away from > the mad house of teaching/exam marking etc. See you soon > > best wishes > Keith > > At 18:08 24/05/2006, you wrote: > >> Hi Keith, >> >> I wanted you to have an advance copy of the comments I'll be >> submitting on the final draft of the AR4. I commend you for the >> excellent work you've done and the tough battle I know you have had >> to fight. I don't envy it, and you know the tough battles I've been >> through. >> >> Confidentially, I do have a number of specific concerns mostly in >> the area of discussions of where things actually now stand in terms >> of some of the earlier criticisms. I believe that the discussion is >> still out of date, given what has been shown in recent publications, >> including Wahl and Ammann (Science). Also, and I don't think this is >> the only place you're going to hear this from, there are deep >> problems w/ Hegerl et al '06, particularly the claims of what TLS can >> do, which are egregiously incorrect. There is a comment in review in >> Nature (not me, but I can promise you, by someone who understands the >> statistical issues involved better than anyone else in our community) >> that is very critical. I think its unwise for the TAR to >> uncritically accept the claims made, particularly given that the >> actual J. Climate paper was in limbo at least at the time the most >> recent draft was finalized. I believe that disqualifies it for >> consideration for AR4, no? >> >> Also, I think it is an absolute travesty that figure 6.10 isn't being >> shown in the SPM. I think that is unforgiveable, and there should be >> an effort to over-ride that decision (I would suspect that is Susan >> Solomon's doing?), >> >> I hope we can discuss these things (and much else) over a few beers >> in Switzerland. Looking forward to seeing you soon, >> >> mike >> >> -- >> Michael E. Mann >> Associate Professor >> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) >> >> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 >> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 >> The Pennsylvania State University email: >> mann@psu.edu >> University Park, PA 16802-5013 >> >> http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm >> >> > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\hegerl06_comment.pdf"