From: "Michael E. Mann" To: Phil Jones Subject: Re: not so fast - an update Date: Thu, 04 Jan 2007 11:40:37 -0500 Reply-to: mann@psu.edu sounds good Phil, I agree on the forecast. I think its at least 'plausible' ;) by the way, please remind me what input you need from me at this point on the Wengen paper. I've attached a review paper I've got in press in "AREPS". Not sure if I sent this to you before. Its mostly a re-tread of our '04 Rev Geophys review (which is getting lots of citations if you've noticed!), but a little bit of newer stuff. talk to you later, mike Phil Jones wrote: > > Mike, > I'm just beginning to notice this. I talked to AP about 5 hours ago. > Our google search has noticed 150 in the last 3 hours. > I checked one - can't recall whether it was Minneapolis of San Diego, > but it read OK. > > It's a trivial forecast. GW plus ENSO. > > Cheers > Phil > > > I was hoping to put some of this background to the IPCC figure > into the Wengen paper, but the more places the merrier. > > By the way - when I'll send out a reminder. > > Phil > > > At 16:19 04/01/2007, Michael E. Mann wrote: > >> by the way, 2007 to be warmest year headline getting a huge amount of >> play in the U.S. media today, >> >> mike >> >> Phil Jones wrote: >> >>> >>> Dear All, >>> The net is closing... >>> >>> National Research Council, US Committee for the Global Atmospheric >>> Research Program, Understanding Climatic Change: A Program for Action, >>> National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, (1975), appendix A. >>> >>> This book (Fig A2b) has the same figure as Imbrie/Imbrie. It is >>> rotated. >>> It also has the same concept of the IPCC 1990 Figure, changes on >>> various timescales - all rotated. Loads of Lamb diagrams I have >>> seen countless times before. >>> >>> This book also talks about the impending cooling..... >>> >>> John Mitchell also thought the figure is in a book by Gribbin >>> called '1982 CO2 Review". Anyone recall that one. This isn't >>> in the CRU Library nor UEA's. >>> >>> The direct source of the IPCC diagram is the UK Dept of Environment >>> document from 1989 which is being posted to me. It though has >>> a source, which isn't in the document. John and Geoff Jenkins >>> wrote it though. It is possible that just the last millennium panel >>> was from this source and the others from this 1975 source. >>> >>> Cheers >>> Phil >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> Dear All (Tom is off to Texas), >>> David Warrilow has found the said report. A photocopy is being >>> posted >>> to me, and two others have been asked if they know more about how >>> it was arrived at. >>> >>> I'll report more when I get news. >>> >>> Phil >>> >>> Tom, >>> Here's a reply from David Warrilow (below). I still think it is >>> in a UK Dept of the Environment report from 1988/89, as does >>> Chris Folland, so have asked him to think a little more. >>> I've looked at the 1979 edition, and Figure 45 is the one. >>> It has a curve, but with the 20th century warmer than the >>> MWP!! It is said to be based on Lamb (1969). This is a >>> chapter in the World Survey of Climatology Series >>> edited by Landsberg. I can't see how you can adapt anything >>> from this. Hubert's chapter has lots of detail, many figures >>> which have lines with the phrase 'analyst's opinion' - one >>> of his favourite terms for things he made up. If it is an >>> adaptation, then it comes from Hubert's ideas about >>> England and NW Europe, because these are the curves >>> in the 1969 chapter. >>> >>> Anyone have the 1986 edition, to see if this curve got changed? >>> The 1986 date is about right for being in the document I recall >>> seeing. Some of you who've seen my room, will be saying if I had >>> a better filing system, then I would be able to find it. Despite >>> keeping >>> most things I can't find this ! >>> >>> By the way, it is GREAT PITY, the First IPCC report didn't use >>> Fig 45. We'd all be very happy and the skeptics wouldn't be going >>> on about what came out in 1990. >>> >>> Attached is the Met Office forecast for 2007. It seems that I'm >>> getting >>> the credit for this in the media. All I did was talk to the >>> Independent about >>> what I thought 2007 had in store weatherwise. With an El Nino going >>> on, >>> I thought it might be a record and just trotted off the typical >>> things that happen >>> in El Nino years. >>> >>> Cheers >>> Phil >>> >>> >>> Phil, >>> >>> I can't be sure but I think the original diagram is from Imbrie and >>> Imbrie : >>> Imbrie, John and Katherine Palmer Imbrie. Ice ages: Solving the >>> Mystery. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1979, >>> 1986 (reprint). ISBN 0-89490-020-X; ISBN 0-89490-015-3; ISBN >>> 0-674-44075-7. p. 25 >>> >>> You may have it in your library. I am afraid I don't have it to hand, >>> >>> David >>> >>> >>> >>> Prof. Phil Jones >>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>> University of East Anglia >>> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>> NR4 7TJ >>> UK >>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>> >> >> >> >> >> -- >> Michael E. Mann >> Associate Professor >> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) >> >> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 >> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 >> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu >> University Park, PA 16802-5013 >> >> http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm >> > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\AREPS-preprint061.pdf"