From: Kevin Trenberth To: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk Subject: Re: 2006 Date: Wed, 24 Jan 2007 10:49:21 -0700 Cc: "Kennedy, John" , Phil Jones Ok that explains several things, I am so glad to know this before going to Paris tomorrow. I made another minor tweak. Kevin david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk wrote: > Kevin > > Thanks. The averages of the values in Fig 3.6 over 1961-1990 turned out > not to be exactly 0.000 owing to missing data in the reference period (a > perennial problem Phil is well aware of). But Susan (?) wanted the SPM > curve to average exactly 0.000 in 1961-1990 so the values were shifted > by somewhere between 0.02 and 0.03. > > Regards > > David > > > On Wed, 2007-01-24 at 10:09 -0700, Kevin Trenberth wrote: > >> John and David >> Thanks, I have updated the figure using your new low frequency curves, >> and so I think 3.6 is now redone. >> However I do not understand the other figure: the global value for T for >> 2006 seems to be 0.46 not 0.42: it lies above half way between the >> ticks. Again I have copied the low frequency curve and replaced the one >> on our figure, but I don't understand the last point. >> How do these look? >> Kevin >> >> Kennedy, John wrote: >> >>> Kevin, >>> >>> I have attached updated versions of the diagrams so that you can see >>> where the 2006 bars and dots should be moved to. >>> >>> John >>> >>> On Tue, 2007-01-23 at 14:48 -0700, Kevin Trenberth wrote: >>> >>> >>>> David et al >>>> For Fig 3.6 we need values for globe, NH and SH. I guessed at NH as >>>> 0.55 and SH as 0.28. But not sure what the new error bars are. I >>>> reduced them a bit from old ones but not as much as for last year. >>>> Anyway, take a look at the attached. I also made a teeny extension of >>>> the blue in each plot. Should I have done that or did the decadal curve >>>> already include 2006? >>>> This is what I can do. If you give me the correct error bars I can >>>> refine a bit more. >>>> Let me know >>>> Kevin >>>> >>>> david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk wrote: >>>> >>>> >>>>> Phil, Kevin >>>>> >>>>> The 2006 global annual average surface temperature anomaly wrt 1961-1990 >>>>> including December data is 0.42+-0.06C (1 sigma) and 2006 remains 6th. >>>>> Slight upgrades to November and December land data are expected in due >>>>> course, but this is the final number so far as IPCC is concerned. >>>>> >>>>> Regards >>>>> >>>>> David >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html NCAR P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305