From: Jonathan Overpeck To: Stefan Rahmstorf Subject: Re: urgent help re Augusto Mangini Date: Sat, 7 Apr 2007 09:35:51 -0600 Cc: Valerie Masson-Delmotte , Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa Hi Stefan - Valerie was the lead on the Holocene section, so I'll cc her. I agree that your approach is the smart one - it's easy to show proxy records (e.g., speleothems) from a few sites that suggest greater warmth than present at times in the past, but our assessment was that there wasn't a period of GLOBAL warmth comparable to present. We used the term likely, however, since there still is a good deal of work to do on this topic - we need a better global network of sites. Keith can comment on the last 1300 years, but again, I think there is no published evidence to refute what we assessed in the chapter. Again, one or two records does not hemispheric or global make. I think Keith or Valerie could comment further if they're not Eastering. Eystein, likewise might have something, but I think it is his national responsibility to hit the glaciers over Easter. Best, Peck >Dear Peck and IPCC coauthors, > >- I know it's Easter, but I'm having to deal with Augusto Mangini, a >German colleague who has just written an article calling the IPCC >paleo chapter "wrong", claiming it has been warmer in the Holocene >than now, and stalagmites show much larger temperature variations >than tree rings but IPCC ignores them. What should I answer? > >One of my points is that IPCC shows all published large-scale proxy >reconstructions but there simply is none using stalagmites - so >please tell me if this is true?!! My main point will be the local >vs hemispheric issue, saying that Mangini only provides local >examples, while the IPCC statement is about hemispheric or global >averages. > >But how about local variations - do stalagmites show much larger >ones than tree rings? Any suggestions what other counter-arguments I >could write? Do we have a stalagmite expert on the author team, >other than contributing >author Dominik Fleitmann, whom I've already identified? >I have to submit my response to the newspaper tomorrow. > >Thanks, Stefan > >-- >Stefan Rahmstorf >www.ozean-klima.de >www.realclimate.org > > > > >-- >Stefan Rahmstorf >www.ozean-klima.de >www.realclimate.org -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/