cc: J.skea@psi.org.uk, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, PARRYML@aol.com, merylyn.hedger@environment-agency.gov.uk, tom.downing@sei.se, mgrc@ceh.ac.uk, chris.West@ukcip.org.uk, michael.grubb@imperial.ac.uk, terry.barker@econ.cam.ac.uk, george.marsh@aeat.co.uk, dennis.anderson@ic.ac.uk, peter.bates@epsrc.ac.uk, dave.griggs@metoffice.com, john.mitchell@metoffice.com, john.lawton@nerc.ac.uk, john.harries@ic.ac.uk, Mike.Walker@defra.gsi.gov.uk, Andrew.Stott@defra.gsi.gov.uk, Peter.Costigan@defra.gsi.gov.uk, John.Lock@defra.gsi.gov.uk, Jeremy.Eppel@defra.gsi.gov.uk, chris.whaley@DEFRA.GSI.GOV.UK, Ian.Pickard@defra.gsi.gov.uk, howard.dalton@DEFRA.GSI.GOV.UK, Sayeeda.Tauhid@defra.gsi.gov.uk, john.holmes@scotland.gov.uk, Guy.Winter@scotland.gsi.gov.uk, rodger.lightbody@doeni.gov.uk, Barry.Dare@Wales.GSI.Gov.UK, Havard.Prosser@Wales.GSI.Gov.UK, john.houghton@jri.org.uk, DL-GAALL@DEFRA.GSI.GOV.UK, Henry.Derwent@defra.gsi.gov.uk, miles.parker@DEFRA.GSI.GOV.UK, terry.carrington@dti.gsi.gov.uk, tim_foy@dfid.gsi.gov.uk, robert.mason@fco.gov.uk, lorraine.hamid@fco.gov.uk, alan.apling@dft.gsi.gov.uk date: Tue, 25 Mar 2003 05:55:43 EST from: PARRYML@aol.com subject: initial vision of IPCC WGII to: Sophia.Oliver@DEFRA.GSI.GOV.UK Dear Sophia: In reply to your circular about the IPCC's AR4, I am copying below an outline vision developed and discussed by the Bureau of WGII (Impacts and Adaptation). It is fluid. There is also a strawman 25-chapter outline that reflects this broad 5-way division of the issues, but I think distribution of this would be premature since it is likely to change radically and could imply a level of detail in planning thant has not yet been achieved. It will however be tabled at the First Scoping Meeting (FSM), and following that meeting, I hope to be able to circulate something further. The comments you provide to the FSM will be most helpful STARTS Key issues provisionally identified and discussed by WGII Bureau (at meetings in August and December 2002, and April 2003), that should be addressed in the WGII 4th Assessment Report include: 1. Are there attributable impacts which are observable now? How far is it possible to distinguish between effects of natural climate variability and those of possible (early onset of) human-induced climate change. What can be learned from adaptation to natural variability as a basis for planning for adaptation to climate change. 2. What are the likely effects of future unmitigated climate change? This was partially answered in TAR, but attention is needed to these key sub-questions: " What are the implied effects under different development pathways (eg as indicated by the SRES marker scenarios)? " Are there critical levels of climate change where exceedance leads to non-linear or irreversible effects? Can this help inform the question: What is a dangerous climate change? " What would be the effect of altered extreme weather events and patterns? " What are the uncertainties/probabilities attached to these estimates of impact? " Can we identify the regional and local as well as the global aspects of these issues? Are there key vulnerable regions and sectors? " Can we achieve a more balanced approach by rigorously analysing the balance between opportunities and challenges presented by potential impacts (noting there may have been, in some cases, a tendency to emphasise negative effects). 3. How much of these effects could be avoided or reduced by adaptation? " What are current and future estimated adaptive capacities? " How would these capacities vary under different development pathways (eg SRES)? " How could these be enhanced? At what cost, etc 4. What would be the estimated impacts/adaptation requirements under different levels of mitigation? (eg under different stabilisation scenarios for different development pathways). We need both: " Global assessments. " Regional and local case studies 5. Can we begin to conduct some robust comparable analyses of mitigation and adaptation? For example, what are the relative costs of these two responses and what combinations of them might be most effective? This would require cross-cutting work with WG3. ENDS Kind regards, Martin