date: Mon Jul 17 19:31:22 2000 from: Mike Hulme subject: Re: Futures scenarios to: F.Berkhout@sussex.ac.uk (Frans Berkhout) Frans (+ Simon), Thanks for sending this - I enjoyed reading it. It struck me again just how divergent are the views expressed by social scientists from those of most natural science modellers, whether those 'predicting' climate change or climate change impacts. I am increasingly unconvinced by the majority of climate impact studies - including some of those I am involved in - and feel we are not really giving the right message to our audiences. I think this must be an area where the Tyndall Centre can make some progress and perhaps this goes back to one of Simon's ideas about using a new genre of coupled climate and climate futures/scenarios as a linking stitch between a number or all of our RPs. Mike p.s. Frans - does the paper you refer to in GEC relate to the one that is coming out this month from the CSERGE group, i.e., the DETR/UKCIP study? At 12:11 17/07/00 +0100, you wrote: Dear all Attached a short article for a forthcoming issue GEC on futures scenarios. Frans ------------------------------------------ Dr Frans Berkhout Environment Programme SPRU-Science and Technology Policy Research Mantell Building University of Sussex Falmer Brighton BN1 9RF Tel: +44 1273 877 130 Fax: +44 1273 685 865 Web: [1]www.sussex.ac.uk/spru ------------------------------------------ -- Begin original message -- > From: Mike Hulme > Date: Fri, 14 Jul 2000 18:16:27 +0100 > Subject: Re: Futures scenarios > To: Simon.Shackley@umist.ac.uk,F.Berkhout@sussex.ac.uk (Frans Berkhout) > > Simon and Frans, > > Yes, I will be around on the 14th Sept. here and we could talk about it then. > If Frans can't make then, we may be able to talk further when (if) you come > up to UEA for the Communications Manager interviews (either early August > or early Sept.). > > I would also like to see how this links in with the next UK climate > scenarios I (i.e. > Tyndall Centre) will be producing for DETR - published winter 2001/02. > We already have funding for this from DETR but maybe Tyndall money > can add some extra dimensions. > > Mike > > At 19:56 10/07/00 +0100, Simon J Shackley wrote: > >hi Frans > > > >yes, we've spent ages developing the socio-economic scenarios for NW > >and East Anglia for Regional Enterprise and Global Sustainability > >(which we're combining with UKCIP high and UKCIP low climate > >scenarios respectively). > > > >There is a reasonably lengthy paper which is nearly completed and I > >should be able to send you a copy by the end of the week - hope that > >fits into your timetable re: GEC. The scenario details are, > >however, a bit under wraps until we've had a stakeholder meeting in > >October. > > > >The scenarios seem to have raised the heckles of some of the sponsors > >and policy advisors to the project. One participant called the > >Regional enterprise scenario for East Anglia: 'political dynamite' ! > >Its all v. interesting to observe and to think how to respond to. > > > >Any way, I'll send you a copy this week and would welcome any > >comments. > > > >On TC, yes I think we should be taking this whole issue further. A > >sub-group meeting on how would be worth initiating. There is a LINK > >climate impacts project meeting at UEA in September (13-15th) at > >which I'm talking about the scenarios and I wonder if that would be > >an opportune time for TC people present to think SE scenario issues > >some more? > > > >Cheers, Simon > > > >cc. to Mike > > -- End original message -- Content-Type: APPLICATION/MSWORD; Name="Viewpoint3.doc" Content-Name: Viewpoint3.doc