cc: "Leonard Smith" , p.jones@uea.ac.uk, "Brian Hoskins" date: Mon, 19 Mar 2007 21:55:55 -0000 (GMT) from: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk subject: RE: SPM figures to: "Piers Forster" Lenny, One other thought. The SPM plot with the global T series on, the snow area and the SLR was produced at the Hadley Centre. David Parker there helped produce them. David is david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk . David is around as he's emailed me yesterday. Thinking more (and it is 6am here in Seoul) David can also send you Appendix 3.A. Chapter 3 produced the global T series, but 4 did the snow area and 5 the SLR. Cheers Phil > > Hi Lenny > > Thanks for your question. I'm not taking the blame for SPM-1, it's from > chapter 6 and I'm chapter 2! However, ill do my best to answer. The > non-red values are ice cores, and are plotted at varying resolutions, > degrading the further back in time you go. These are averages over the > resolutions for which the ice-core data guys assume that the bit of ice > core they are looking at covers. There is about 5-20 year resolution for > firn data and about 200 year resolution for old Antarctic ice. > Instrumental (red) data in the last 50 years is for annual averages in > the larger figures and monthly averages in the inset. The series all end > at the end of 2005. > > Cheers > > > Piers Forster (www.env.leeds.ac.uk/~piers) > T +44 113 343 6476; F +44 113 343 6716; E piers@env.leeds.ac.uk > School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK > > -----Original Message----- > From: Leonard Smith [mailto:lenny@maths.ox.ac.uk] > Sent: 19 March 2007 14:26 > To: piers@env.leeds.ac.uk; p.jones@uea.ac.uk > Cc: Leonard Smith; Brian Hoskins > Subject: Re: SPM figures > > > dear both, > > brian hoskins suggested i contact you directly regarding figures SPM-1 > and > SPM-3 which are taken from your chapters; i am fielding various > questions from the public, including some deniers, questioning why some > graphs "end early". i expect this is clear in your chapters but it is > not clear from the figure captions in the SPM. > > ending well before 2006 makes sense if the graphs are decadal averages > (which of course always end half-a-window-width before the last data > point; this is clearly the case in Fig SPM-4.). > > some confusion is caused by the small insets in fig SPM-1, where it is > not clear from the caption what is being plotted (annual values, longer > term averages?); could you tell me if these are averaged values and when > the series end? > > also, i notice that in fig SPM-3 the smooth line ("decadal averages") > extend to the end of the record! no one has flagged that yet, but i am > sure they will and i would rather preempt with an explanation, esp if i > am explaining why decadal averages end 5 years before the last data > point in other figures. > > thanks much for your help. > > cheers, > lenny > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > Prof Leonard A. Smith > Director Senior Research Fellow > Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (Mathematics) > Department of Statistics Pembroke College > London School of Economics Oxford OX1 1DW > Houghton Street England > London WC2A 2AE > > 020 7955 7626 (voice) 01865 270 517 > 020 7955 7416 (fax) 01865 270 515 > >