date: Fri May 22 09:12:51 2009 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: NAM graphs to: Steve Jones Hi Steve, can we delay until 1030 this morning please? Cheers, Tim At 19:22 16/04/2009, you wrote: Hi Tim, After a brief hiatus over Easter, I've put together some graphs using the data you sent me the other week, which I've attached for you to look at. First up are nam1 and nam2, which show the differences between the NAM series generated by Miller (black lines) and you (red lines). During the 20th century there's not much in the way of differences between the two, except for the variability in a couple of cases. Your NAM series show a greater propensity to increase during the 21st century than Miller's. In means.eps, I've plotted unweighted (black) and weighted (red) mean values from your NAM series according to the scores I've calculated for the various models. The scores are in scores.xls, and the mean values are in the csv files. The minimum score for any model has been set to 0.1 so all models have at least some contribution to the weighted mean series. The two mean series are ultimately pretty close, but the weighted mean shows a slightly slower acceleration through the 21st century. I'd still like to make a couple of Taylor diagrams to see has the two match up to the ERA-40 data, but that should be a quick job once we've got a NAM series for it. Shall we meet up soon and decide where we are and what conclusions might be drawn from all of this? Steve. 1900,-2.07 1901,-0.05 1902,-2.09 1903,2.15 1904,2.38 1905,0.86 1906,1.57 1907,-2.85 1908,0.14 1909,1.32 1910,0.94 1911,0.4 1912,2.1 1913,-0.28 1914,1.51 1915,-2.08 1916,-0.81 1917,1.04 1918,0.24 1919,-2.3 1920,-1.5 1921,-1.11 1922,-0.66 1923,0.15 1924,-1.86 1925,-0.42 1926,0.79 1927,-0.72 1928,1.44 1929,-0.28 1930,1.75 1931,3.84 1932,0.31 1933,0.77 1934,-1.64 1935,-0.23 1936,-3.45 1937,2.49 1938,-0.46 1939,-1.24 1940,0.67 1941,-0.96 1942,-0.62 1943,-1.05 1944,0.46 1945,0.29 1946,-1.28 1947,0.92 1948,0.37 1949,1.74 1950,1.09 1951,0.8 1952,1.66 1953,0.74 1954,-1.49 1955,-0.1 1956,-2.4 1957,-0.36 1958,0.71 1959,-0.33 1960,-1.7 1961,1.02 1962,-0.1 1963,-0.34 1964,-1.32 1965,1.03 1966,1.62 1967,0.72 1968,0.03 1969,-2.09 1970,1.25 1971,-0.63 1972,1.53 1973,-1.54 1974,-1.67 1975,0.59 1976,-3.26 1977,-1.22 1978,0.8 1979,1.15 1980,-0.44 1981,-1.66 1982,-0.4 1983,3.63 1984,-0.1 1985,2.77 1986,-2.24 1987,-1.99 1988,0.56 1989,1.31 1990,0.88 1991,-1.68 1992,-0.93 1993,-1.7 1994,1.34 1995,0.3 1996,-1.32 1997,1.62 1998,0.48 1999,1.88 2000,0.4 2001,1.64 2002,0.74 2003,0.11 2004,2.06 2005,1.17 2006,0.2 2007,0.18 2008,2.25 2009,0.58 2010,1.78 2011,-0.12 2012,0.07 2013,2.59 2014,-0.92 2015,0.37 2016,3.46 2017,1.05 2018,1.5 2019,1.1 2020,2.08 2021,2.88 2022,1.47 2023,0.7 2024,1.86 2025,0.44 2026,2.45 2027,2.45 2028,2.05 2029,2.27 2030,3.08 2031,3.21 2032,2.77 2033,2.23 2034,2.53 2035,-1.49 2036,-0.77 2037,3.4 2038,3.27 2039,3.01 2040,0.85 2041,3.09 2042,3.57 2043,0.78 2044,1.91 2045,1.88 2046,2.37 2047,1.58 2048,2.64 2049,1.9 2050,3.61 2051,4.63 2052,1.03 2053,3.2 2054,3.13 2055,5.29 2056,3.12 2057,2.02 2058,2.12 2059,2.78 2060,3.3 2061,1.62 2062,3.16 2063,4.23 2064,2.46 2065,5.34 2066,0.39 2067,4.34 2068,1.29 2069,1.73 2070,3.16 2071,2.27 2072,2.28 2073,2.58 2074,2.05 2075,1.11 2076,5.3 2077,4.17 2078,2.89 2079,3.95 2080,4.73 2081,4.33 2082,4.65 2083,-0.04 2084,4.12 2085,4.36 2086,3.43 2087,3.34 2088,7.14 2089,1.9 2090,3.42 2091,4.01 2092,3.73 2093,3.36 2094,2.3 2095,4.89 2096,3.72 2097,3.57 2098,4.76 2099,2.05 2100,6.57 1900,-0.74 1901,-2.14 1902,-1.77 1903,3.48 1904,1.68 1905,-0.62 1906,2.25 1907,-1.55 1908,-1.55 1909,2.02 1910,-1.34 1911,1.63 1912,0.14 1913,-2.43 1914,1 1915,-3.18 1916,-0.68 1917,1.82 1918,-0.7 1919,-1.66 1920,-2.67 1921,-1.79 1922,0.96 1923,0.23 1924,-2.93 1925,1.87 1926,0.96 1927,-3 1928,-0.69 1929,-1.97 1930,1.93 1931,4.11 1932,1.3 1933,0.21 1934,-0.58 1935,-0.22 1936,-3.47 1937,1.31 1938,-2.59 1939,-1.11 1940,-0.33 1941,-0.5 1942,-0.43 1943,-1.89 1944,-1.84 1945,2.56 1946,-2.19 1947,-0.82 1948,1.64 1949,2.01 1950,1.42 1951,1.77 1952,1.21 1953,2.09 1954,-3.11 1955,-0.84 1956,-1.28 1957,-0.93 1958,1.28 1959,0.07 1960,-1.79 1961,1.31 1962,-0.29 1963,-1.5 1964,-2.14 1965,1.36 1966,1.49 1967,0.05 1968,0.32 1969,-3.22 1970,1.77 1971,-0.67 1972,2.9 1973,-2.26 1974,-2.32 1975,0.61 1976,-2.79 1977,-1.6 1978,0.66 1979,2.92 1980,0.5 1981,-3.01 1982,0.77 1983,4.32 1984,0.55 1985,2.67 1986,-1.98 1987,-2.42 1988,-0.97 1989,1.98 1990,-1.06 1991,-2.84 1992,-1.44 1993,-1.58 1994,1.1 1995,1.31 1996,-1.22 1997,1.03 1998,-0.41 1999,0.52 2000,-1.55 2001,0.09 2002,-0.05 2003,-0.38 2004,1.29 2005,0.54 2006,-0.17 2007,-0.69 2008,1.3 2009,-0.84 2010,0.98 2011,0.01 2012,-0.43 2013,0.98 2014,-1.59 2015,1.94 2016,2.91 2017,-0.92 2018,2.54 2019,1.41 2020,1.65 2021,2.67 2022,0.67 2023,-0.07 2024,0.19 2025,0.62 2026,0.42 2027,1.56 2028,3.02 2029,1.25 2030,1.74 2031,3.85 2032,3.89 2033,0.89 2034,2.41 2035,-1.66 2036,-2.7 2037,1.09 2038,3.65 2039,1.55 2040,0.72 2041,0.76 2042,2.51 2043,-0.11 2044,0.87 2045,2.32 2046,0.94 2047,0.95 2048,0.78 2049,0.11 2050,5.37 2051,4.1 2052,-0.25 2053,4.05 2054,2.89 2055,6.24 2056,5.15 2057,0.63 2058,1.82 2059,3.18 2060,3.04 2061,0.96 2062,5.29 2063,5.02 2064,2.17 2065,5.04 2066,1.84 2067,4.39 2068,1.41 2069,0.33 2070,2.17 2071,1.4 2072,2.09 2073,1.52 2074,1.56 2075,0.67 2076,3.98 2077,5.98 2078,1.76 2079,3.59 2080,4.15 2081,3.89 2082,5.39 2083,-0.01 2084,2.62 2085,4.44 2086,4.43 2087,3.39 2088,7.02 2089,2.5 2090,1.34 2091,3.59 2092,4.02 2093,2.88 2094,2.65 2095,6.93 2096,2.67 2097,2.23 2098,4.81 2099,1.22 2100,5.85