date: Wed Jan 2 14:24:57 2008 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: RE: More nonsense on climate change to: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Chris, I began by accepting everything as it was easier to read then. The only mistake I then found was that the 3rd bullet said 2007 when it should have been 2008, as that is was we're talking about. I have added in all the tilde's and an 's' at the end of your quote. I have also modified my quote at the end to make it clearer. I have also added the word 'not' that I intended to the other day! A couple of things 1. Added a comment - could say in 3rd bullet that 1998 was so warm because of the record 97/98 El Nino. 2. Could add a website in the press release that appears on the Met Office site to a web site where the earlier forecasts might be accessible? This isn't essential - it is just that the skeptics won't believe your 0.07 accuracy number. If a page was mentioned it might shut them up - unlikely I know! Let me know when you're due to release this and I can get UEA to send it out from here - locally in East Anglia - tomorrow. Cheers Phil PS The Climate Audit web site has just discovered the FAQs from AR4! They began by saying these hadn't been approved, but several people have told them they were in the various chapter drafts. They are now complaining that they differ from the last govt review! It is impossible to win with these people. The FAQs were altered - but only by a science writer and the CLAs to make them more easy to read. If the science writer changed the sense, we changed it back. Dear Phil Ive left your comments in but dealt with most of them We must not make this release too complicated. Before Xmas on my PC I had a very provisional set of HadCRUT3 values. The average magnitude of the error is actually 0.07C. This has lead to some further minor changes. Please make any further changes in tracker and I will send it to the Press Office this afternoon for final discussions tomorrow. Cheers Chris Prof. Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability and Forecasting Research Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) <[1]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk> Fellow of the Met Office Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia -----Original Message----- From: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk [[2]mailto:P.Jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 30 December 2007 20:21 To: Folland, Chris Subject: RE: More nonsense on climate change Chris, Here's a few thoughts on the press release. Only got back today. I'll be in CRU on Jan 2, so we can finalise this then. I need to work out the values for 2001-7 and 1991-2000, but we might be using different versions of the GLT record - you may be adjusting for 1961-90 not being quite zero. The SH oceans have oooled off a lot in late 2007. Reword my quote if you want. Trying to say that if we got a very warm year in 2008 as a result of an El Nino event it wouldn't mak any difference scientifically to a cooler 2008 due to La Nina. It might politically but we don't do that ... Have a great New Year ! Cheers Phil > Phil > > Please see the draft global temp forecast. Changes and additions in > tracker please. Some numbers are approximate if close, as I'm having > difficulties accessing some Met Office web sites from home today. The > forecast value may change slightly when updated on Jan 2. We have yet > to fully agree the DePreSys decadal forecast system value (a third of > the weight of the forecast) as Andrew Colman and Doug Smith have a > discepency of 0.03C when apparently doing the same calculation. > > Take your time - hope to get back to the Press Office with a revision > including the numbers by cop Jan 2. > > Happy Xmas > > Chris > > > > Prof. Chris Folland > Head of Climate Variability and Forecasting Research > > Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United > Kingdom > Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk > Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 > Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 > (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) > <[3]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > Fellow > of the Met Office Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, > University of East Anglia > > > > ________________________________ > > From: Phil Jones [[4]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] > Sent: 21 December 2007 12:58 > To: Folland, Chris > Subject: RE: More nonsense on climate change > > > > Chris, > David seems to be doing something sooner on this last 10 years > trend. > > In what you do, this point may be relevant. 0.2 deg C per decade is > roughly what we're warming at (it's a bit lower I know), so annually > this is 0.02 per year. This is less than half the error on the Global > T estimates (even the one SE). > > So all these arguments/comments are stupid. > > Have a great Christmas and New Year ! > > Cheers > Phil > > > At 16:17 20/12/2007, you wrote: > > > Phil > > I am working on the draft Press release tomorrow morning. Will send a > draft to you. The forecast will be issued 4 Jan. Soon (feb) I will be > starting the global temperature forecasting paper. It will discuss > these issues. Might go for GRL to quicken it up. Have to see. > > Chris > > > Prof. Chris Folland > Head of Climate Variability and Forecasting Research > > Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United > Kingdom > Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk > Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 > Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 > (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) > < [5]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk <[6]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/> > > Fellow of the Met Office > Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of > East Anglia > > > > ________________________________ > > From: Phil Jones [ [7]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk > <[8]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk> ] > Sent: 20 December 2007 15:59 > To: Parker, David; Folland, Chris > Subject: Fwd: More nonsense on climate change > > > David, Chris > Been in touch with Bob - and told him that when you add in errors > then you can't say that any of the 10-year trends are significant. > 1998-2007 > values do have a positive trend, but it isn't significant - and > certainly not when considering > the errors. > I'm fed up hearing this story. It has been doing the rounds now > for more than > a year. > I was wondering if there is anything we can do about it. > We could develop > histograms for all 10-year trends for 1850-1859 to 1998-2007 with > and without > considering the errors. Most will be non-significant, so just > showing how > many there are that are significant might be useful. > Another way is to look at non-overlapping decades. 1998-2007 will > be > warmer than 1988-1997 for example, and it is the decade timescale > that is > important and not interannual. > > Another idea is that old chestnut of extracting the SOI > influence from the record. > Maybe Dave Thompson's work will go some way towards this by > extracting > ENSO and COWL. This has the benefit of down-weighting 1998. > > Maybe we should add something to the press release in early Jan > on your > forecast for next year - if you're doing one. > > People in the know in the climate field understand, but this story > won't go away. > I'm sure Nigel Lawson will spout it again in the Lords when they > come to debate > the new govt emission controls on CO2 > > Have a good Christmas and New Year break! > > I'll have New Year's wish not to hear this story again - I expect > it won't > be long before it's broken! > > Cheers > Phil > > > > > Subject: More nonsense on climate change > Date: Thu, 20 Dec 2007 12:32:08 -0000 > X-MS-Has-Attach: > X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: > Thread-Topic: More nonsense on climate change > Thread-Index: AchDBFYEH11uRYdfTTGoWFQrAv04sQ== > From: "Bob Ward" > To: "Phil Jones" > X-OriginalArrivalTime: 20 Dec 2007 12:32:10.0737 (UTC) > FILETIME=[5785B610:01C84304] > X-UEA-Spam-Score: 2.0 > X-UEA-Spam-Level: ++ > X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO > > Dear Phil, > > I was wondering whether you have seen the article by David > Whitehouse in the latest edition of 'New Statesman'? > [9]http://www.newstatesman.com/200712190004 > > It would be great if somebody could respond to the article. I would > be happy to do so if somebody can supply me with the ammunition. Any > thoughts? > > Best wishes, > > Bob > > Bob Ward > Director, Global Science Networks > > Risk Management Solutions Ltd > Peninsular House > 30 Monument Street > London > EC3R 8NB > > Tel. +44 (0) 20 7444 7741 > Blackberry +44 (0) 7710 333687 > > [10]www.rms.com <[11]http://www.rms.com/> > > > > > > > This message and any attachments contain information that may be RMS > Inc. > confidential and/or privileged. If you are not the intended > recipient > (or authorized to receive for the intended recipient), and have > received > this message in error, any use, disclosure or distribution is > strictly > prohibited. If you have received this message in > error, > please notify > the sender immediately by replying to the e-mail and permanently > deleting > the message from your computer and/or storage system. > > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > -- > ---- > > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > -- > ---- > > > Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------