cc: Tim Osborn , Malcolm Hughes , Keith Briffa , rbradley@geo.umass.edu, tcrowley@duke.edu, omichael@princeton.edu, jto@u.arizona.edu, Scott Rutherford , Tom Wigley , p.jones@uea.ac.uk, Kevin Trenberth , mann@virginia.edu date: Wed, 15 Oct 2003 12:22:27 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: draft to: Tom Crowley Thanks Tom, I knew you'd been travelling, and appreciate you getting back to me as soon as you could. I've attached a revised 'final' draft adopting your suggestion on the final sentence w/ a minor tweak. Will await any comments/go ahead from Peck, and then I should be ready to submit. Thanks to all, again, for the considerable help... mike At 10:16 AM 10/15/2003 -0400, Tom Crowley wrote: Mike, I have been out of town and have not participated in the exchanges - the reply is nice - some might raise eyebrows about the pointedness but I think BS deserve a bit of pointedness, so I am happy to sign off on it. A couple of minor points: last para., first line, a comma does not seem necessary after "Education" last para., last sentence - needs a bit more punch to close it out - something like "We believe these developments speak for themselves with respect to the quality of the Soon and Baliunas criticisms." you don't need another go-around on this last point if you don't like it - just think about it and I will defer to whatever you decide without taking any longer on this. thanks for all your work, tom Great, Thanks a bunch Tom...Will make those changes. Awaiting word from Tom C and Peck before signing off, mike At 11:45 AM 10/14/2003 -0600, Tom Wigley wrote: Good job Mike -- and everyone else. Reads smoothly and punchily. Still some grammar errors, like 'et al' instead of 'et al.' Also, I think Caspar should just be 'NCAR', for consistency with me and Kevin. TOM. =========== Michael E. Mann wrote: Thanks Malcolm, I agree, it would be nice to give this issue, which is nuanced and somewhat complex, proper justice. But we can't. I think your minor change of wording helps. We're at 755 words--I think that'll be ok. Latest (final?) draft attached. The sentiment has been overwhelmingly to keep the final paragraph, but in the shortened and downplayed form as suggested by Tom W and others. At this point, we only need to hear from Tom C and Peck to sign off on this. Tom, Peck, any comments". Again, I don't want to sign either of your names to this until I at least have an "ok". Thanks, mike At 09:39 AM 10/14/2003 -0700, Malcolm Hughes wrote: Dear Mike - count me in. Regarding Mike O's question, it might help to insert 'recent' before 'bias' at the end of para 1). As it stands the paragraph shows that SB treat a problem related to a subset of the tree-ring data as if it applied to all of them.It would probably take a couple of sentences more to adequately answer Mike's reasonable concern and that would skew our text too far towards defending our own work rather than our critique of SB, in my view. Given more space, the crucial issue is that there is reason to believe that the weakening of the relationship between temperature and tree-ring density and width in some extensive northern regions, largely restricted to decadal time scales, is indeed anomalous. For example, the stability of the density/summer temperature relationship has been demonstrated against instrumental records as far back as the early 18th century in the case of Scotland. Thus the justification for not using the post 1950 period for training of models for retrodiction is that some new factor or combination of factors has come into play since then in these cases. Hope this helps! Keith can probably say it in 80% fewer words. Cheers, Malcolm . . . Malcolm Hughes Professor of Dendrochronology Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 520-621-6470 fax 520-621-8229 ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Thomas J. Crowley Nicholas Professor of Earth Systems Science Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences Box 90227 103 Old Chem Building Duke University Durham, NC 27708 tcrowley@duke.edu 919-681-8228 919-684-5833 fax ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\SoonReply-final.doc"