date: Thu Dec 9 08:21:31 2004 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Re: Hurricanes and Global Warming for IPCC to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, FYI !!! Not read fully yet, have a visitor till 1pm today. Phil Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 16:21:55 -0500 From: "Christopher Landsea" X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.79 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Susan.Solomon@NOAA.GOV, Frank.Marks@NOAA.GOV, Rick.Rosen@NOAA.GOV, Peter.Ortner@NOAA.GOV, Thomas.C.Peterson@NOAA.GOV, Thomas.R.Karl@NOAA.GOV, Albert.Klein.Tank@knmi.nl, dhko@hko.gov.hk, rahim_f@irimet.net, lindam@ucar.edu, pachauri@teri.res.in, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, killeen@ucar.edu, B.J.Hoskins@reading.ac.uk, bubujallow@hotmail.com Subject: Re: Hurricanes and Global Warming for IPCC X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by inferno.aoml.noaa.gov id iB8LGQR11318 X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean Dear Dr. Pachauri and IPCC/NOAA colleagues, R K Pachauri wrote: > Dear Dr. Landsea, > > I am responding somewhat belatedly to your e mail of November 6 on > the above subject. > > I was tied up almost round the clock for the 22nd Plenary Session of > the IPCC held in New Delhi during the week of November 8, and then > immediately thereafter on travel to Korea and Australia. Thank you for your response. With this note, I would like to explain to you why I am no longer willing to serve as a contributor to the IPCC unless changes are made. > I fully appreciate your good intent in bringing to my attention as > well as that of others the recent news reports that you have referred > to. I need hardly mention that the IPCC cannot possibly take a > position on this, because individual scientists can do what they wish > in their own rights, as long as they are not saying anything on > behalf of the IPCC. I may also mention that often the media does > exaggerate what scientists may put forward on a balanced and > objective basis. I have myself been the victim of such exaggeration > on several occasions. I, therefore, agree entirely with Dr.Trenberths > response to your communication, since what he said did not in any > way misrepresent the IPCC and apparently his statements accurately > reflected IPCCs TAR. Thank you for presenting these points for consideration. Unfortunately, all of these issues that you bring up (i.e., individual scientists' statements, media exaggeration, and accurately reflecting the TAR) are not valid in the case of Dr. Trenberth and his advocacy that 2004's hurricanes and typhoons were in part caused by anthropogenic global warming. In the first point about "not saying anything on behalf of the IPCC", Dr. Trenberth certainly did so. At the press conference (again, audio for the entire event is available at - [1]http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge/media.html ), Dr. Trenberth was presented as "a convening lead author of the 2007 IPCC Report". There was no disclaimer by the press conference conveners, nor by Dr. Trenberth himself, that he was speaking only his opinions. Media representatives at this press conferences would rightfully conclude that Dr. Trenberth was officially representing the IPCC. Secondly, this is not a case of media exaggerating or misrepresenting a scientist's words. I have had numerous interactions with the media and have also occasionally experienced this by not-quite-competent or (worse) biased reporters. This is simply the media (in this case accurately) reporting Dr. Trenberth's actual words. Again, one can confirm this by listening to the above on-line audio, reading the transcript of his interview on the Living with the Earth media program - [2]http://www.loe.org/ETS/organizations.php3?action=printContentItem&orgid=33&typeID=18& itemID=223 - and by reading the recent NCAR Staff Notes writeup - [3]http://www.ucar.edu/communications/staffnotes/0410/hurricane.html . Much of the media concluding that the 2004's tropical cyclones were partially due to global warming is an accurate representation of Dr. Trenberth's own views and words. Finally, it is not true that "his statements accurately reflected IPCCs TAR." I know this to be the case, since I helped write the section on observations of hurricane activity for both the Second and Third Assessment Reports. From the TAR Summary for Policymakers: "Some important aspects of climate appear not to have changed... Changes globally in tropical and extratropical storm intensity and frequency are dominated by inter-decadal to multi-decadal variations, with no significant trends evident over the 20th Century." One can also read over section 2.7.3.1 Tropical Cyclones in TAR (which I was a primary author) to learn more of the details of how the numbers and intensity of tropical cyclones globally have seen large low-frequency variations, which dominate the time series. While it is possible that tropical cyclones will develop slightly stronger winds and more rain in the somewhat distant future (5% increase in about 80 years, according the the newest thorough study by the folks at GFDL), it is a dramatic change in conclusions to say that storminess might become a few percent worse in several decades to now saying that 2004's tropical cyclones were in part caused by global warming. As I mentioned earlier, the refereed literature in my field and the consensus by the folks active in tropical cyclone climate variability conclude the opposite to what Dr. Trenberth is advocating publicly. > I do hope you would continue to remain engaged in the work of > the IPCC and provide your knowledge and wisdom for the benefit > of science. > > May I say I do greatly appreciate your desire to see that scientific > statements are objective and balanced, and that we should all respect > this requirement. > > With kind regards, > Yours sincerely, > R. K. Pachauri Dr. Pachauri, you mentioned earlier that "individual scientists can do what they wish in their own rights", which is certainly true. Differing conclusions and robust debates are crucial to progress in climate science. However, what we have here is not in this case an honest scientific discussion. Instead, Dr. Trenberth in representing the IPCC has successfully promulgated into the media his own opinion that the 2004 hurricane season was caused by global warming, which is in direct opposition to research written in the field and is counter to conclusions in the TAR. Yet, I have been asked to provide the writeup about observed hurricane activity variations for the FAR with, ironically, Dr. Trenberth as Lead Author. Because of Dr. Trenberth's pronouncements, the IPCC process on our assessment of these crucial extreme events in our climate system is compromised and its objectivity lost. While no one can "tell" scientists what to say or not say (nor am I suggesting that), the IPCC did select Dr. Trenberth as a Lead Author and entrusted to him to carry out this duty in a non-biased, objective point of view. To this, he has failed. I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as not being scientifically sound. As long as this structure remains, I will no longer participate in the IPCC FAR. Sincerely, Chris Landsea *********************************************************************** Chris Landsea NOAA AOML/Hurricane Research Division Voice: (305) 361-4357 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway Fax: (305) 361-4402 Miami, Florida 33149 Internet: Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov [4]http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea_bio.html *********************************************************************** "When that cloud begins to move apace, you may expect the Wind presently. It comes on fierce, and blows very violently at N.E. 12 hours more or less...When the wind beginds to abate i dyes away suddenly, and falling flat calm, it continues for an hour, more or less: then the wind comes about to the S.W. and it blows and rains as fierce from thence, as it did before at N.E. and as long." - From the log of William Dampier on 4 July 1687, in the South China Sea, the first such record of a tropical cyclone. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------