cc: "Quinn, Rachel" , "Bowden, Rebecca" date: Wed, 27 Jun 2001 12:07:53 +0100 from: Tom Downing subject: RE: Climate change meeting draft program - comments to: "Goulden, Marisa" , Terry Barker , Tom Downing , "'djgriggs@meto.gov.uk'" , "'michael.grubb@ic.ac.uk'" , "'Brian Hoskins (E-mail)'" , "'jthoughton@ipccwg1.demon.co.uk'" , "'m.hulme@uea.ac.uk'" , "'jcrh@mssl.ucl.ac.uk'" , "'martin.parry@uea.ac.uk'" Marisa (and colleagues): Your certainly have your hands full on putting this together. There have been some very sensible suggestions, here are a few more: Session 1: Needs a title, otherwise seems solid Session 2: How will climate change this century? First question is too bald, maybe: Can global climate models go beyond plausible scenarios to robust forecasts? Jim Skea would be ideal for the emission scenarios--he was on the SRES panel (I saw him yesterday and he would be available subject to diaries). Session 3: I think this needs a bit more focus and headlines. I would rephrase the question to: What are the major issues in vulnerability, impacts and adaptation? I have three topics in mind--but we may need to move the last one to a later session if timings are too difficult. Chair: Martin Parry A: Have we detected the first impacts of climate change? Speaker: David Macdonald, Director of WildCru, Zoology Department, Oxford (I spoke to him yesterday as well and he is willing to do this--has several key data sets and knows the issues well) Discussant: Mel Cannell, CEH B: Contested impacts: issues of model dependence, scale and valuation Speaker: Richard Tol--a set of subjects that he has worked on Discussant: could be anyone C: Integrated vulnerability assessment: Can we identify hot spots for adaptation? Speaker: could be me, Martin Parry, Neil Adger Discussant: Best to get someone from the disaster community? Session 4: mitigation: okay Sum up: Mike Hulme would be ideal--he covers a wide spectrum from climate science to impacts; or a policy-oriented person? Session 5: Might put Houghton then Watson, with Jaeger as a discussant--that is to bring out the good, bad and ugly of international scientific processes--leading to the kinds of questions about the use science in policy. Session 6: International level These need to be clarified. I would adopt a model of: Research synopsis: an introduction to the research--the speakers and some of the audience may not have attended the first day (5-10 min) Policy needs: the main presentation (10-15 min) Discussant: views from an alternative stakeholder (5 min) So... A: Sustainable climate change: what are the best prospects for achieving acceptable levels of climate change? Synopsis: Tol would be good, Bert Metz as well Policy: John Ashton or DEFRA negotiators Discussant: Aidan Murphy, Shell, Alan Steinbeck, RT or Bernard Bulkin, BP B: Global equity: what are the hot spots for adaptation and mitigation impacts? (If not done in session 3) Synopsis: T Downing and Benito Muller (10 min) Policy: Andrew Bennett, DfID, Sir Crispin Tickell Discussant: Patricia Feeney, Oxfam, or someone from Red Cross (Netherlands or Geneva?) C: Regimes: Is Europe going to deliver the Kyoto Protocol? Synopsis: Grubb Policy: Jos Delbecke, EU Discussant: John Gummer This should be a longer session! Maybe part of UK session (7), or a separate session linking the international and UK? That's all for now! Tom Thomas E. Downing Reader in Climate Policy Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford 1a Mansfield Road Oxford OX1 3SZ Tel: +44 1865 281180 Fax: +44 1865 281181 tom.downing@eci.ox.ac.uk www.eci.ox.ac.uk -----Original Message----- From: Goulden, Marisa [mailto:marisa.goulden@royalsoc.ac.uk] Sent: 26 June 2001 09:43 To: 'tsb1@econ.cam.ac.uk'; 'tom.downing@eci.ox.ac.uk'; 'djgriggs@meto.gov.uk'; 'michael.grubb@ic.ac.uk'; 'Brian Hoskins (E-mail)'; 'jthoughton@ipccwg1.demon.co.uk'; 'm.hulme@uea.ac.uk'; 'jcrh@mssl.ucl.ac.uk'; 'martin.parry@uea.ac.uk' Cc: Quinn, Rachel; Bowden, Rebecca Subject: FW: Climate change meeting draft program - comments Dear all, thank you for your comments, I will be putting them together shortly. In the mean time here are some suggestions from Martin Parry and Michael Grubb. Any further comments/suggestions are welcome. Regards Marisa -----Original Message----- From: PARRYML@aol.com [mailto:PARRYML@aol.com] Sent: 25 June 2001 16:01 To: marisa.goulden@royalsoc.ac.uk Subject: Re: RS Climate change meeting draft program - comments pl Marisa: You have the reply from Hulme that followed my discussion with him; and I am happy with that though I would add: a) I think Arnell would make a better discussant than Tol and b)Downing would be a good alternate for Adger. As I mentioned on the phone, I am (at end of this week) finalising some plans for the autumn, so it would be helpful to know if you would like me involved in the meeting (then I'll book to return to UK a little bit sooner than originally planned). regards, Martin Prof. Martin L. Parry Jackson Environment Institute University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ Tel: +44 (0) 1603 592 318 Fax: +44 (0) 1603 593 896 E-mail: parryml@aol.com Web: http://www.uea.ac.uk/env/jei -----Original Message----- From: Grubb, Michael J [mailto:michael.grubb@ic.ac.uk] Sent: 25 June 2001 15:15 To: 'Goulden, Marisa ' Subject: Climate change meeting draft program - comments Dear Marissa Many thanks for the programme, I am sorry if I have been slow to respond. On Thursday I jotted down the following suggestions, working on the draft from 18 June: Session 2. Emission scenarios Dennis Anderson at IC was a key person involved in the IPCC emission scenarios - not me, nor Terry. He would obvious lead. Ken Gregory - now an independent consultant - could provide an industry view, he was also involved in the IPCC scenarios. Or for UK scenarios you could go for one of the Royal Commission people. Session 4. Mitigation In my draft this is still blank, could you consider the following. i) If you want an analysis from within the IPCC WG-III process then I would probably be best placed to do the first talk - something rather general like 'Mitigating climate change: the potential for technologies and policies' ii) Terry Barker would then be best for a follow on something like 'the costs of emission limitations - a macroeconomic view' iii) For Technologies and Options - Mary Archer could be an interesting draw! Jim Skea would be also be good on either (I) or (iii), as speaker or discussant. Session 6. Challenges at the International Level This is quite complex. You could consider something like the following: The global architecture - John Ashton Discussant - I could be one possibility, or maybe Simon Shackley (Mike Hulme would be best placed to judge whether Simon right for this) from Tyndall Umist Richard Sandbrook, former director, IIED, or Saleemul Huq, now climate change coordinator at IIED, could be very good on the development angle, with a discussant from DFID? Then I think you need someone on the US position - maybe Alyce Tymball from the US Embassy Benito Mueller from Oxford Inst of Energy Studies would be the best discussant, he is specialising in understanding what is going on there. Also, Sir Crispin would be obvious eg. as discussant, big picture things. I hope these comments help. Michael Marisa Goulden Science Policy Officer (Environment & Energy) Science Advice Section The Royal Society 6 Carlton House Terrace London SW1Y 5AG Tel: +44 (0)20 7451 2590 Fax: +44 (0)20 7451 2692 e-mail marisa.goulden@royalsoc.ac.uk http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk Registered Charity No 207043 This e-mail message has been scanned for viruses and spam by the e:)scan service.