cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk date: Mon, 20 Oct 2003 11:32:32 +0100 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Fwd: Re: MBH98 to: "Michael E. Mann" ,rbradley@geo.umass.edu, mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu,Scott Rutherford , hfd@ncdc.noaa.gov Dear All, I've had several emails from Steve McIntyre. He comes across in these as friendly, but then asks for more and more. I have sent him some station temperature data in the past, but eventually had to stop replying to me. Last time he emailed me directly was in relation to the Mann/Jones GRL paper. That time he wanted the series he used. I suspect that he is the person who sent the email around about only 7 of the 23 series used by Ray et al. being in WDC-Paleo. I told him then that he needs to get in contact with the relevant paleo people. It seems only Mike, Ray and me got this email from Timo, so I'll forward it. He names the worst offenders (ie those not putting data on WDC-Paleo) as being Cook, Mosley-Thompson, Hughes and Briffa !! He clearly should go to a few paleo meetings to find out what is really out there. Last week I saw the Patzold Bermuda coral record again. It is now 1000 years long and all there is an unwritten paper ! The second email I'm forwarding is one from Bill Kininmonth. I've met Bill several times at WMO meetings and in Australia. Bill has retired now. When I knew him he knew very little about paleo. I wouldn't bother replying, unless you want to go into chapter and verse and don't think through Timo. I would like to believe Bill would be receptive, but it would take time. You could suggest, Ray, he reads your book rather than Lamb's, but from his tone that might not go down too well ! Both Hubert's books in the early 1990s are basically updates of his 1974/77 books, with more references and in a chattier style. Cheers Phil At 11:14 19/10/2003 -0400, Michael E. Mann wrote: FYI--thought you guys should have this (below). This guy "McIntyre" appears to be yet another shill for industry--he appears to be the one who forwarded the the scurrilous "climateskeptic" criticisms of the recent Bradley et al Science paper. Here is an email I sent him a few weeks ago in response to an inquiry. It appears, by the way, that he has been trying to break into our machine ("multiproxy"). Obviously, this character is looking for any little thing he can get ahold of. The irony here, of course, is that simple composites of proxy records (e.g. Bradley and Jones; Mann and Jones, etc) give very similar results to the pattern reconstruction approaches (Mann et al EOF approach, Rutherford et al RegEM approach), so anyone looking to criticize the basic NH temperature history based on details of e.g. the Mann et al '98 methodology are misguided in their efforts... The best that can be done is to ignore their desperate emails and, if they manage to slip something into the peer-reviewed literature, as in the case of Soon & Baliunas, deal w/ it as we did in that case--i.e., the Eos response to Soon et al---they were stung badly by that, and the bad press that followed.For those of you who haven't seen it, I'm forwarding an interesting email exchange from John Holdren of Harvard that I got the other day. He summarized the whole thing very nicely, form an independent perspective... Cheers, mike p.s. I'm setting up my email server so that it automatically rejects emails from the "usual suspects". You might want to do the same. As they increasingly get automatic reject messages from the scientists, they'll start to get the picture... Date: Thu, 25 Sep 2003 18:53:33 -0400 To: "Steve McIntyre" From: "Michael E. Mann" Subject: Re: MBH98 Bcc: Scott Rutherford , mann@virginia.edu Dear Mr. McIntyre, A few of the series terminate prior to the nominal 1980 termination date of the calibration period (the earliest such instance, as you note, is 1971). In such cases, the data were continued to the 1980 boundary by persistence of the final available value. These details in fact, were provided in the supplementary information that accompanied the Nature article. That information is available here (see first paragraph): [1]ftp://eclogite.geo.umass.edu/pub/mann/ONLINE-PREPRINTS/MultiProxy/data-supp.html and here: [2]http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ei/data_supp.html The results, incidentally, are insensitive to this step; essentially the same reconstruction is achieved if a calibration period terminating in 1970 (prior to the termination of any of the proxy series) was used instead. Owing to numerous demands on my time, I will not be able to respond to further inquiries. Other researchers have successfully implemented our methodology based on the information provided in our articles [see e.g. Zorita, E., F. Gonzalez-Rouco, and S. Legutke, Testing the Mann et al. (1998) approach to paleoclimate reconstructions in the context of a 1000-yr control simulation with the ECHO-G Coupled Climate Model, J. Climate, 16, 1378-1390, 2003.]. I trust, therefore, that you will find (as in this case) that all necessary details are provided in the papers we have published or the supplementary information links provided by those papers. Best of luck with your work. Sincerely, Michael E. Mann At 05:28 PM 9/25/2003 -0400, Steve McIntyre wrote: Dear Prof Mann, Here is the pcproxy.txt file sent to me last April by Scott Rutherford at your direction. It contains some missing data after 1971. Your 1998 paper does not describe how missing data in this period is treated and I wanted to verify that it is the correct file. How did you handle missing data in this period? In earlier periods, it looks like you changed the roster of proxies in each of the periods described in the Supplementary Information using only proxies available throughout the entire period. I have obtained quite close replication of the rpc1 in the 20th century by calculating coefficients for the proxies and then calculating the rpc's using the minimization procedures described in MBH98 and the selection of PCs in the Supplementary Information. The reconstruction is less close in earlier periods. I also don't understand the reasoning for reducing the roster of eigenvectors in earlier periods. The description in MBH98 was necessarily very terse and is still very terse in the Supplementary Information; is there any more detailed description of the reconstruction methodology to help me resolve this? Thank you for your attention. Yours truly, Steve McIntyre, Toronto, Canada ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [4]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------