date: Tue May 19 16:36:24 2009 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: TMP: cruts3 extended to 2008 to: Ian Harris Harry -- problems occur in the latest PRE data too -- attachment again shows seasonal country means. There are some big outliers here -- see Cuba on page 3! USA on page 4 is particularly worrying... the last decade is all way too high. Even though it USA is a big country and there are a number of years with erroneously high values, it might still be down to outliers (just lot's of them!). At 16:15 19/05/2009, Phil Jones wrote: Harry, Hope you can easily sort out the outliers. Might they be values where the flags say don't use? They seem like individual station values that you could get rid of with an outlier check. The Cook Islands are interesting. Cheers Phil At 16:03 19/05/2009, Tim Osborn wrote: Hi Harry and Phil, attached are my comparisons of last year's CRU TS 3.00 seasonal country averages through to end of 2005 (I didn't use the Jan2006-Jun2006 data) in pink, with the extended CRU TS 3.00 through to end of 2008. I've just shown 1940-2008, otherwise things get too small to see clearly. There are differences throughout, but most are fairly minor. Small differences (e.g. +-0.1) might be related to my calculations, which I've done at full precision but I've only written the final country/seasonal means out with 1 decimal place. However it is likely that there are some cases that really have shifted by a small amount between the two Harry versions. Any idea why early data has changed? A number of big outliers have also been introduced. Some are in the update period but are clearly wrong. Some are in the pre-2005 period but are not in the previous CRUTS3 data from last year -- have you turned off any QC checking when making the new extended version? p.4 Guatemal SON 1995 p.5 Greenland DJF 1995/6 p.6 France/Germany/Denmark SON 2006 (these might be real?) p.10 Mauritania SON 1994 p.11 Ivory Coast (+p.12 Burkina.) SON 1999 p.12 Mali/Algeria/Niger JJA 2005 p.12 Mail (not Algeria/Niger) SON 1994 p.13 Ethiopia/Eritrea/Somalia JJA 2002 p.14 Kenya/Tanzania JJA 2002 (opposite sign to Ethiopia!) p.16 Mozambique/Zimbabwe MAM 2004 p.17 Madagascar MAM 1996 p.23 Tuvalu/Kiribati MAM 1997 p.23 Tuvalu JJA 1947 p.23 Tuvalu/Kiri./Marshall/Caro.) DJF 1995/6 p.24 Tonga SON 1994 I made anomaly maps for annual means for 2006, 2007 and 2008. They looked quite similar to the HadCRUT3 maps on Climate Monitor. Cheers Tim Dr Timothy J Osborn, Academic Fellow Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------