date: Fri Mar 26 07:59:55 2004
from: Phil Jones
subject: Re: [Fwd: Interesting Abtstract]
to: Tom Wigley
Tom,
Possibly will one day - not soon, but later this year. For Keith's Rapid project we've
got all
the early Greenland data, which enables a couple of the sites on the western side to be
taken back to the early 19th century. When this gets written up, I'll add in proper
correlations
with the NAO.
For Easter, I'll give Sarah a call and see what a good time might be. I'll bring the
Greenland
file.
Cheers
Phil
At 12:50 25/03/2004 -0700, you wrote:
Thanks Phil -- in a word, you seem to think the paper is crap.
So, what can one do? Seems like it is worth putting such an
opinion in print -- or doing it right.
Tom.
================
Phil Jones wrote:
Tom,
I got the whole paper.
Below is how to do it. This comes from being on the Climatic Change editorial board.
As an ex-member you can use it if you don't download everything. The fact that the
copy I produced is no longer in my bag is indicative. It's now in the pile to be
filed.
It has the words, this is wrong, this is crap in red on several pages. There was a lot
of unwarranted speculation, many of the correlations (those in the abstract) come
after filtering both series with a 5-year running mean !! Abstract didn't say that -
seems
important when using the NAO.
Also, it said that a most promising NAO reconstructions was Appenzeller et al. !
This has no correlation with real world NAO that I could find, nor any relationship
with
Ed Cook's or Jurg Luterbacher's.
Cheers
Phil
Access to the journal is now available and easier than ever via Kluwer's own website.
Therefore as of 1st August 2003, your free access to the journal via a third party
service, Ingenta, will come to an end. Naturally, as members of the Editorial Board,
your free access will continue though the Kluwer site.
Below you will find your new access codes for the free electronic version. These codes
are personal to you and care should be taken against discovery and use by others.
> Go to the journal's homepage at [1]http://www.kluweronline.com/issn/0165-0009
> click on 'Journal contents',
> and then click on the issue you wish to access.
> When you wish to look at an article, you will be asked for a username and password:
Username: climboard
Password: ILIM0009
> You can now select the papers from the online version of the journal and view them in
a PDF.
At 09:58 25/03/2004 -0700, you wrote:
Phil,
What do you think of this?
Tom.
=================
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Interesting Abtstract
Date: Mon, 22 Mar 2004 08:34:57 -0700
From: Joel Smith [2]
To: Tom Wigley (E-mail) [3]
CC: Jane Leggett (E-mail) [4]
Tom,
Relevant to our discussion about rapid melting of the Greeland Ice Sheet.
Joel
Climatic Change
63 (1-2): 201-221, March 2004
Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet
Petr Chylek
Space and Remote Sensing Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop D436, Los
Alamos, NM 87545, and Department of Physics, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces,
NM, U.S.A. E-mail: [5]chylek@lanl.gov <[6]mailto:chylek@lanl.gov>; Department of Physics
and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada B3H 3J5
Jason E. Box
Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, U.S.A.
Glen Lesins
Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
B3H 3J5
Abstract
The Greenland coastal temperatures have followed the early 20th century global warming
trend. Since 1940, however, the Greenland coastal stations data have undergone
predominantly a cooling trend. At the summit of the Greenland ice sheet the summer
average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.2 °C per decade since the beginning
of the measurements in 1987. This suggests that the Greenland ice sheet and coastal
regions are not following the current global warming trend. A considerable and rapid
warming over all of coastal Greenland occurred in the 1920s when the average annual
surface air temperature rose between 2 and 4 °C in less than ten years (at some stations
the increase in winter temperature was as high as 6 °C). This rapid warming, at a time
when the change in anthropogenic production of greenhouse gases was well below the
current level, suggests a high natural variability in the regional climate. High
anticorrelations (r = -0.84 to -0.93) between the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index
and Greenland temperature time series suggest a physical connection between these
processes. Therefore, the future changes in the NAO and Northern Annular Mode may be of
critical consequence to the future temperature forcing of the Greenland ice sheet melt
rates.
Joel B. Smith
Stratus Consulting Inc.
P.O. Box 4059
Boulder, CO 80306-4059 USA
Tel: 1-303-381-8218
Fax: 1-303-381-8200
[7]jsmith@stratusconsulting.com
[8]www.stratusconsulting.com
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [9]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------