date: Fri Mar 26 07:59:55 2004 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Fwd: Interesting Abtstract] to: Tom Wigley Tom, Possibly will one day - not soon, but later this year. For Keith's Rapid project we've got all the early Greenland data, which enables a couple of the sites on the western side to be taken back to the early 19th century. When this gets written up, I'll add in proper correlations with the NAO. For Easter, I'll give Sarah a call and see what a good time might be. I'll bring the Greenland file. Cheers Phil At 12:50 25/03/2004 -0700, you wrote: Thanks Phil -- in a word, you seem to think the paper is crap. So, what can one do? Seems like it is worth putting such an opinion in print -- or doing it right. Tom. ================ Phil Jones wrote: Tom, I got the whole paper. Below is how to do it. This comes from being on the Climatic Change editorial board. As an ex-member you can use it if you don't download everything. The fact that the copy I produced is no longer in my bag is indicative. It's now in the pile to be filed. It has the words, this is wrong, this is crap in red on several pages. There was a lot of unwarranted speculation, many of the correlations (those in the abstract) come after filtering both series with a 5-year running mean !! Abstract didn't say that - seems important when using the NAO. Also, it said that a most promising NAO reconstructions was Appenzeller et al. ! This has no correlation with real world NAO that I could find, nor any relationship with Ed Cook's or Jurg Luterbacher's. Cheers Phil Access to the journal is now available and easier than ever via Kluwer's own website. Therefore as of 1st August 2003, your free access to the journal via a third party service, Ingenta, will come to an end. Naturally, as members of the Editorial Board, your free access will continue though the Kluwer site. Below you will find your new access codes for the free electronic version. These codes are personal to you and care should be taken against discovery and use by others. > Go to the journal's homepage at [1]http://www.kluweronline.com/issn/0165-0009 > click on 'Journal contents', > and then click on the issue you wish to access. > When you wish to look at an article, you will be asked for a username and password: Username: climboard Password: ILIM0009 > You can now select the papers from the online version of the journal and view them in a PDF. At 09:58 25/03/2004 -0700, you wrote: Phil, What do you think of this? Tom. ================= -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Interesting Abtstract Date: Mon, 22 Mar 2004 08:34:57 -0700 From: Joel Smith [2] To: Tom Wigley (E-mail) [3] CC: Jane Leggett (E-mail) [4] Tom, Relevant to our discussion about rapid melting of the Greeland Ice Sheet. Joel Climatic Change 63 (1-2): 201-221, March 2004 Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet Petr Chylek Space and Remote Sensing Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop D436, Los Alamos, NM 87545, and Department of Physics, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, U.S.A. E-mail: [5]chylek@lanl.gov <[6]mailto:chylek@lanl.gov>; Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada B3H 3J5 Jason E. Box Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, U.S.A. Glen Lesins Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada B3H 3J5 Abstract The Greenland coastal temperatures have followed the early 20th century global warming trend. Since 1940, however, the Greenland coastal stations data have undergone predominantly a cooling trend. At the summit of the Greenland ice sheet the summer average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.2 °C per decade since the beginning of the measurements in 1987. This suggests that the Greenland ice sheet and coastal regions are not following the current global warming trend. A considerable and rapid warming over all of coastal Greenland occurred in the 1920s when the average annual surface air temperature rose between 2 and 4 °C in less than ten years (at some stations the increase in winter temperature was as high as 6 °C). This rapid warming, at a time when the change in anthropogenic production of greenhouse gases was well below the current level, suggests a high natural variability in the regional climate. High anticorrelations (r = -0.84 to -0.93) between the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index and Greenland temperature time series suggest a physical connection between these processes. Therefore, the future changes in the NAO and Northern Annular Mode may be of critical consequence to the future temperature forcing of the Greenland ice sheet melt rates. Joel B. Smith Stratus Consulting Inc. P.O. Box 4059 Boulder, CO 80306-4059 USA Tel: 1-303-381-8218 Fax: 1-303-381-8200 [7]jsmith@stratusconsulting.com [8]www.stratusconsulting.com Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [9]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------