cc: Mike Hulme date: Fri, 14 Nov 2003 16:25:48 +0000 from: Tim Mitchell subject: Droughts paper to: Sari Kovats Sari, Regional information on regions at risk Sahel: This is critically dependent on the extent to which the West African Monsoonal rains penetrate inland. Changes in patterns of rainfall distribution (inland v coastal) may be critical and are hard to predict. The models do not show a consistent sign in the region of interest (TAR WGI Fig 10.6, Box 10.1 Fig 2). Southern Africa: The source of rain depends on the area concerned, since the land lies at the meeting point of oceans. Most rain is during summer (DJF), for which the models do not show a consistent sign in the region of interest (TAR WGI Fig 10.6, Box 10.1 Fig 2). India: The Southern Asian Monsoon dominates of course. Monsoonal changes are difficult to predict without a firmer grasp of (a) how the monsoon is connected to El Nino and (b) how El Nino will change. However, the models consistently suggest a small increase in precipitation (TAR WGI Fig 10.6, Box 10.1 Fig 2). The distribution of any change will, of course, be critical. This may not be relevant, but on the other hand, you might be interested in: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timm/movies/index.html Regards Tim _____________________________________ Dr. Tim Mitchell Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research email: t.mitchell@uea.ac.uk web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timm/ phone: +44 (0)1603 59 1378 = CHANGED JULY fax: +44 (0)1603 59 3901 post: Tyndall, ENV, UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK _____________________________________