date: Thu Feb 14 12:45:13 2008 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Tom Wigley (wigley@ucar.edu) has sent you a news story from to: Tom, Dave Bromwich's papers (one in JGR an done in GRL) in 2007 are both about how poor Reanalyses are in the Antarctic cf the Arctic. Main issue is that both NCEP and ERA-40 rejected most of the surface data prior to 1979 and ERA-40 worked hard to get mores sondes in from the BAS Reader project, but then screwed up getting these in. So not sure what this news alert is about. Even in the Peninsula, the warming is probably just significant. The SD is amazingly high in this region. Cheers Phil At 23:38 13/02/2008, you wrote: Hi Phil, Interesting re the Antarctic paper -- which I have not read. I'm very suspicious of this. SNR is such that one cannot usefully compare models and obs -- not to mention obs uncertainties, and problems with getting the sfce signal effect of ozone depletion. Re the latter, Susan Solomon thinks the models are very poor at this. Tom. "Climate change, gender differences, health among EurekAlert! 10 Most Pop= ular Stories in 2007" [1]http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-01/aaft-ccg011008.php ___________________________________________________________ This message was sent from EurekAlert!, a service of AAAS, the science society. Visit [2]http://www.eurekalert.org for more breaking science, health and technology news. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------