cc: "Davey, Mike" , "Parker, David" date: Wed, 27 Jun 2007 12:53:11 +0100 from: "Folland, Chris" subject: RE: In case you've not seen this awful paper to: "Phil Jones" , "Wood, Richard" Phil 1. I have glanced through this - reads like the Pilkey book which I have read and which they refer to. Neither seems to have heard of NWP and the extensive and improving skill verification statistics that exist. This destroys the Pilkey book's central thesis about the uselessness of all non linear mathematical models for all predictive purposes at a stroke. 2. A paper has recently appeared in Science comparing early IPCC expectations of changes in various climate parameters with what has actually happened since. Looks good. David Parker is an author and can provide a copy if need be. Seems to be a fairly well matched answer to this article. 3. Next month we expect another criticism to start to fall - publication in Science of the first and quite extensive set of validated decadal hindcasts using a coupled model where the model is indeed initialised - and a demonstration of the skill got from doing initialisation, compared to not initialising. And a decadal forecast for the future which they can get their teeth into which can already be partially verified. Wait till this appears c 3 Aug. 4. There is quite a lot of skill up to a year ahead in probabilistic real time numerical forecasts of El Nino SSTs using coupled models. Don't think they know much about that. Mike Davey maybe can point to the best paper on this. 5. In certain regions we can demonstrate real seasonal forecast skill beyond chance using numerical models. I presented an example in my Prof. lecture at CRU a year or two ago for the Upper Volta Soudan region of West Africa. Think its not written up - Mike Davey can comment. There is a discussion of N E Brazil seasonal rainfall skill using GCMs forced with observed SST in Folland et al (2001) J. Climate. Mostly very long set of seasonal hindcasts from 1912 in ensemble mode, but a few real forecasts. Not a perfect example of what they are on about but relevant. Don't think they know about that. 6. We regularly do moderately skilful forecasts of global surface temperature one year ahead. Partly coupled model based only. But not yet written up. Chris Prof. Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability and Forecasting Research Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) Fellow of the Met Office Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 25 June 2007 09:06 To: Wood, Richard; Folland, Chris Subject: In case you've not seen this awful paper Richard, Chris, You may have seen this, so apologies if you have. Kevin's brief response is to the point. There might be some media coverage this week, as I think ISF is on now. We didn't respond to their email a few months back as it was too vague. I did get one though from Kestin Green. It would seem that both authors could do with reading some relevant literature - at least understand the difference between forecasts, predictions and projections. Cheers Phil >X-Authentication-Warning: moffatt.cgd.ucar.edu: apache set sender to >trenbert@ucar.edu using -f >Date: Sun, 24 Jun 2007 18:21:24 -0600 (MDT) >Subject: Re: Forecasting conference - Armstrong paper >From: "Kevin Trenberth" >To: j.renwick@niwa.co.nz >Cc: "Phil Jones" >Reply-To: trenbert@ucar.edu >User-Agent: SquirrelMail/1.4.8-2.el4.centos4 >X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.0 >X-UEA-Spam-Level: / >X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO > >Jim >Yes, and I offer the attached comments on his paper. I haven't >commented on the bet he has made, but there will probably be something >on realclimate.com. >I have had a lot of exchanges with Gavin. >Not sure what to do with this: post it on realclimate.com is one option. >Anyway I am in the middle as a keynote speaker at this conference. I >do plan to make my ppt available after the mtg via my web site. > >Kevin > > > Hi Kevin: > > > > I se you're speaking at ISF 2007 this week. One of the other invited > > speakers, J Scott Armstrong, who is talking about public policy and > > forecasting (http://www.forecasters.org/isf/) has written the > > attached, ostensible for the ISF meeting. It's a strange document - > > even I get quoted in terms of a casual remark I made to an NZ > > journalist a few weeks ago (I should know by now there's no such > > thing as a casual remark). Just thought you should know this stuff, if you didn't already. > > > > I got the PDF off the NZ Climate Science Coalition (i.e. Vince Gray > > and > > co) website. By the way, I suppose you heard Augie Auer died > > suddenly a couple of weeks ago? > > > > > > Cheers, > > Jim > > -- > > Dr James Renwick, Science Leader, climate variability & change > > National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Private Bag > > 14901, Wellington, NEW ZEALAND > > J.Renwick@niwa.co.nz Ph: +64-4-3860343 Mob: +64-21-1785550 > > http://www.niwa.co.nz Fax: +64-4-3862153 or +64-4-3860574 > > > > >___________________ >Kevin Trenberth >Climate Analysis Section, NCAR >PO Box 3000 >Boulder CO 80307 >ph 303 497 1318 >http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ----