date: Tue, 13 May 2008 09:55:39 -0400 from: David Easterling subject: JGR paper etc. to: Phil Jones Phil, Just letting you know I reviewed the paper Urbanization effects in large-scale temperature trends, with an emphasis on China excellent paper. Also I have a question regarding a certain skeptic named Stephen Wilde. I get emails from google when their web crawler finds mention of "global warming" and one was about an article in one of the right wing news web sites called something like "The truth on global warming and global cooling" by Stephen Wilde. Typical skeptics hogwash, but it claims he is a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society since 1968, but he is not listed in the Fellows of the RMS so is he a fraud? Last I am thinking about doing a short cautionary piece maybe for Science or Nature, looking at short trends (e.g. "the last 10 years show global cooling") and how they can lead to incorrect conclusions. Ron Stouffer showed a 10 year or so section of one of their A1B runs that has a strong downward trend, but the overall trend, of course, is warming of about 3C or so. I would also use sections from a control run to show that even an unforced climate can produce decade long trends both up and down. Thoughts? Cheers, Dave -- David R. Easterling, Ph.D Chief, Scientific Services Division NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 V: +1 828 271 4675 F: +1 828 271 4328 David.Easterling@noaa.gov