date: Thu Jun 23 11:41:25 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Fwd: Dave Keeling to: Ian.Sample@guardian.co.uk Ian, I'm not an expert in this, so I'd try and get someone else, but I'll try. I think the confusion is due to the natural and the enhanced (i.e. the human induced part) of the greenhouse effect. Natural here is why the mean temperature of the Earth is 14 deg C and not 30 degs cooler. Water Vapour is the main component of the natural greenhouse effect. Water Vapour is about 60-70% of the total if the sky were clear. CO2 is about 25%. The water vapour contribution is virtually impossible to measure and it depends on which lines in the absorption spectra get saturated. The additional CO2 since pre-industrial times is about 62% of the human-induced part. The rest (38%) is CH4, N2O, CFCs etc. So, they likely refer to different things: whether you include the natural greenhouse effect and whether you include water vapour. Cheers Phil At 10:18 23/06/2005, you wrote: Phil, hi, Thanks for the message and the email. We heard the news about Keeling after trying to track him down for a comment. I believe we're going to be doing an obit - at least I have pushed for it. I'm going to look again at the piece I've done - it's more a very very selective skip through some of the key milestones from Arrhenius onwards rather than a piece on Keeling himself. Incidentally, I wondered if you might be able to help me clear something up. I'm trying to check a figure for the %age contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect. I found figures attributing around 60% to atmospheric water vapour, but there seem to be two figures for CO2 - either around 25% or around 62%. If it's 62% (as a noaa guy told me last night), it means the water figure must be wrong. I'm wondering if there's a bit of confusion in that maybe the figs refer to different things. Might you know someone who can clarify what the contribution is? It'd be great if there's anyone who can help! With thanks again, Ian Phil Jones cc: Subject: Fwd: Dave Keeling 23/06/05 08:54 am Ian, This is all I have. Jim Fleming is an American Historian who has written a book on the scientists involved in climate change work over the last few centuries, but mainly from Aarrhenius onwards. Here is his co-ordinates if you need more. James R. Fleming -- Science, Technology and Society Program Colby College 5881 Mayflower Hill Waterville, ME 04901-8858 USA Phone 207-872-3548 Fax 207-872-3074 Secretary 207-872-3246 Profesional Profile: [1]http://www.colby.edu/profile/jfleming/ "James R. Fleming" >Dear Alan, > >I will be sending you a complete DVD of the scanned Callendar papers, but >for now, can you make the minor changes indicated below in Box 1. > >Also, Dave Keeling at Scripps died Monday of a sudden heart attack. I'm >sure it is news in the CRU. > >Thanks for doing this, >Jim Fleming Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------