cc: Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 16:00:02 +0200 from: Fortunat Joos subject: Re: Fwd: RE: solar forcing over the recent millennia to: Jonathan Overpeck Hi, Suggest to incorporate the essence of the paragraph into the forcing section. Regards, Fortunat Quoting Jonathan Overpeck : > Hi Keith and Fortunat - here's some text (and candid insight from > Chap 2 CLA) on land-use change back on paleo timescales. What should > we do w/ it? Anything? > > thanks > > best, peck > > >X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 > >From: "Piers Forster" > >To: "'Jonathan Overpeck'" > >Subject: RE: solar forcing over the recent millennia > >Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 10:21:50 +0100 > >Organization: University of Reading > >thread-index: AcWNdVqPqgXy+jzVRjCio7W7H4cJFwAX7kMg > > > > > > > >Peck > > > >Here is the text on land-use. I think it was more one of our Las (Richard > >Bets) wanting to get his work referenced as I took it out of our chapter. > >But I'm not even 100% sure he as submitted the work he refers to here in the > >Betts (2005) reference. But if you think you would want to cite it I could > >ask him > > > >Piers > > > > > > > > > >Since anthropogenic land cover change was in progress well before fossil > >fuel burning began, this may have exerted a radiative forcing of climate > >prior to the industrial era. Betts et al (2005) used a GCM to estimate the > >radiative forcing due to anthropogenic surface albedo changes at 1750 > >relative to the natural vegetation state. The global mean shortwave > >radiative forcing due to land cover change by 1750 was simulated as -0.06 > >Wm-2. The local forcing at 1750 reached -2 Wm-2 over Europe, China and > >India. In Europe, approximately 12% of the land currently used for crops or > >grazing had been modified by 1750 (Klein Goldewijk 2001). Although a > >greater fraction (15%) of the land was cultivated in China at that time, > >much of this was in warmer regions where the relative infrequency of snow > >cover reduced the impact of deforestation on surface albedo. The greatest > >forcing within China was in Manchuria, where long-lasting snow cover allowed > >land cover change to exert large impacts on surface albedo. > > > >Negative radiative forcings were simulated in of some parts of the Americas, > >but these areas were small since European settlers had arrived only > >relatively recently and major agricultural expansion had yet to take place. > > > >Piers Forster (p.m.forster@rdg.ac.uk) > >T +44 118 378 6020; F +44 118 378 8905 > >Department of Meteorology, > >University of Reading, RG6 6BB, UK > > > >-----Original Message----- > >From: Jonathan Overpeck [mailto:jto@u.arizona.edu] > >Sent: 20 July 2005 22:51 > >To: Piers Forster > >Cc: Eystein Jansen; cddhr@giss.nasa.gov; Gabi Hegerl; Keith Briffa; 'V. > >Ramaswamy' > >Subject: RE: solar forcing over the recent millennia > > > >Hi Piers et al - thanks! I'm hoping (please > >confirm, David) that David will be working to > >ensure all of our chapters are consistent wrt > >solar forcing - want to also make sure we're also > >ok wrt to volcanic? > > > >Of course the rest of us should try to keep an eye on things too. > > > >We are still over our official space limit, but > >if you want to send the land-use change material > >you mention, we can check it out and see if we > >can at least reference the right citations. > > > >Thanks again, peck > > > >>Hi all > >> > >>This a draft of our solar and volcanic sections, so you can see where we > >>have got to and what we intend to cover - note it is still some way off > >>being complete! > >> > >>There is also a section at the start on land-use changes prior to 1750 that > >>Richard Betts, one of our LAs wanted the Paleo chapter to consider > >> > >>Note also the brief sections on the climate response to solar and volcanic > >>forcings, these may also fit better elsewhere > >> > >> > >>Cheers > >>Piers > >> > >> > >> > >> > >>Piers Forster (p.m.forster@rdg.ac.uk) > >>T +44 118 378 6020; F +44 118 378 8905 > >>Department of Meteorology, > >>University of Reading, RG6 6BB, UK > >> > >>-----Original Message----- > >>From: Jonathan Overpeck [mailto:jto@u.arizona.edu] > >>Sent: 18 July 2005 18:54 > >>To: V. Ramaswamy > >>Cc: p.m.forster@reading.ac.uk; cddhr@giss.nasa.gov; Eystein Jansen; Gabi > >>Hegerl; Keith Briffa > >>Subject: Re: solar forcing over the recent millennia > >> > >>Hi Ram and Piers - might be good to share, and > >>also to share w/ David Rind, Keith Briffa and > >>Gabi, since we need to make sure all our chapters > > >are compatible on the issue of solar. I believe, > >>last we talked, that you were playing pre-20th > >>century aspects. > >> > >>I think David tries hard to keep in touch w/ > >>Judith L on these issues too. That should help. > >> > >>We're happy to share our text w/ you too. > >> > >>Thanks again, peck > >> > >>>Hi Piers, > >>> > >>>Would it be best to send to Jonathan Chap. 2's latest version of the > > >>solar - and also volcano? Note that these sections are still at the > >>>draft-stage. > >>> > >>>Ram > >>> > >>> > >>> > >>>On Mon, 18 Jul 2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > >>> > >>>> Hi Fortunat et al. - thanks for this new > >>>> material, and for the review of this new > >>>> material. I think David Rind is up on the Chap 2 > >>>> discussion of solar, and he's also a CA/liaison > >>>> on Chap 9. Thus, he can help make sure we are > >>>> consistent (best confirm, David). > >>>> > >>>> If we have it all right and it makes sense for > >>>> Rob to be a CA, great (and thanks!). Rob - can > >>>> you send a short cv to me and Eystein? > >>>> > >>>> thanks, peck > >>>> > >>>> >Hi, > >>>> > > >>>> >I have some text on solar for section 6.5.2. I > >>>> >tried to be as brief as possible. > >>>> > > >>>> >I got also input from Rob Dorland for our chapter and I have > >summarized > >>his > >>>> >text, mainly in para 2.7.2.1, in the very > >>>>last para of the attached document. > >>>> > > >>>> >(I have not yet checked his lower bound Maunder Minimum for the > >earlier > >>>> >reconstruction, but will try to do so asap if > >>>>this last paragraph survives. I > >>>> >suspect the lower bound should be 0.25% reduction instead of 0.15%; > I > >>have > >>>> >added Bard as additional reference which > >>>>gives the high Maunder Minimum bound > >>>> >of a 0.65% reduction in irradiance below the present mean level) > >>>> > > >>>> >KEITH AND DAVID could you check whether you > >>>>agree with the writing. Bette has > >>>> >already looked over it here at NCAR and found the expansion > >worthwhile. > >>>> > > >>>> >PECK AND EYSTEIN, can you put Rob van Dorland > >>>>down as contributing author if > >>>> >this expansion on solar forcing is welcomed. > >>>> > > >>>> >ROB: would you mind to send me the references > >>>>for your text in endnote format? > >>>> >(I usually use bibtex and are just in the transition). > >>>> > > >>>> >With best wishes, > >>>> > > >>>> >Fortunat > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> >-- > >>>> >e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; > >>>> > > >>>> >Until November 23 > >>>> > National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Terrestrial Sciences, > >CGD > >>>> > 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305 > >> >> > ++1-303 497 13 44 (office) > >>>> > > >>>> > home address: > >>>> > 3655 Emerson Avenue, Boulder, CO, 80305 > >>>> > ++1-303 494 69 52 (home) > >>>> > > >>>> >After November 24 > >>>> > Climate and Environmental Physics > >>>> > Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern > >>>> > Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 > >>>> > Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ > >>>> > > >>>> >Attachment converted: Macintosh > >>>> >HD:joos_Ch06_FOD_6.5.2_s#8A3ED.doc (WDBN/) > >>>> >(0008A3ED) > >>>> >Attachment converted: Macintosh > >>>> >HD:dorland_Ch02s7_ZOD_pr#8A3EE.doc (WDBN/) > >>>> >(0008A3EE) > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> -- > >>>> Jonathan T. Overpeck > >>>> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >>>> Professor, Department of Geosciences > >>>> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >>>> > >>>> Mail and Fedex Address: > >>>> > >>>> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >>>> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor > >>>> University of Arizona > >>>> Tucson, AZ 85721 > >>>> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 > >>>> fax: +1 520 792-8795 > >>>> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ > >>>> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > >>>> > >> > >> > >>-- > >>Jonathan T. Overpeck > >>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >>Professor, Department of Geosciences > >>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >> > >>Mail and Fedex Address: > >> > >>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor > >>University of Arizona > >>Tucson, AZ 85721 > >>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 > >>fax: +1 520 792-8795 > >>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ > >>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > >> > >>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ch2topaleo19July.doc (WDBN/) > >(0008AD67) > > > > > >-- > >Jonathan T. Overpeck > >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >Professor, Department of Geosciences > >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > > > >Mail and Fedex Address: > > > >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor > >University of Arizona > >Tucson, AZ 85721 > >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 > >fax: +1 520 792-8795 > >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ > >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > > > -- > Jonathan T. Overpeck > Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > Professor, Department of Geosciences > Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > > Mail and Fedex Address: > > Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor > University of Arizona > Tucson, AZ 85721 > direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 > fax: +1 520 792-8795 > http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ > http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > -- e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Until November 23 National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Terrestrial Sciences, CGD 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305 ++1-303 497 13 44 (office) home address: 3655 Emerson Avenue, Boulder, CO, 80305 ++1-303 494 69 52 (home) After November 24 Climate and Environmental Physics Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/