cc: Manola Brunet date: Fri Oct 2 13:03:09 2009 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: INTERVIEW FROM TORTOSA to: Silvia Berbís Silvia, I will give you some answers to those that I think I have some expertise on. Answers below each of the questions Best Regards Phil At 11:35 02/10/2009, Silvia Berbís wrote: Dear professor Jones. I'm a journalist from Tortosa, my name is Sílvia Berbís, and I'm very interested in asking you some qüestions to publish because of the inauguration of the Center in Climate Change next eight of october. I talked with Manola Brunet and she gave me your email. Do you think I can get your answers in 6 of october, please?? We close our next edition this day... Thanks for all and excuse me for my bad english. 1.- The forecasts of affectation of the climatic change for the Ebros Delta establish that in year 2100 the increase of the level of the sea will place among half a meter and a meter so the threat is near and evident. Do you think that this forecast is excessive? I don't know who has produced this forecast, but they should have taken into account the rise of the sea level (globally, so from increases in water temperature - thermal expansion, and also from melting sea ice) The IPCC sea level forecast for 2100 is within the 0.5 to 1.0m range. The big unknown is how much will melt from Greenland and the Antarctic and the speed at which it will occur. There is also an issue of whether the Ebro Delta region is sinking relative to the present sea level. So, the forecast doesn't sound excessive. 2.- Do you believe you can put into practice measures that avoid any kind of damage or there is someone that its unavoidable? With respect to sea level, even if we get everyone agreeing in Copenhagen to massive emissions reductions (say 80% reduction in 1990 emissions by 2050) it will not make much difference to the sea level rise. 3.- Why the average temperature increase of 06 degrees that has experiment the planet in the last century is focused especially in the Poles? It isn't. There has been a large increase in the tropics. The increase is about 0.75 deg C over the last 100 years. It is more in polar regions than the tropics, but not that much more. In terms of the change, the increase is more significant in the tropics because temperatures vary less from year to year than in the polar regions. 4.- Why the Mediterranean is one of the areas that its most vulnerable because of the level sea increase? I'm not sure it is more vulnerable than other regions. Any region with very small tidal ranges will be more vulnerable, as the projected increase is large compared to what normally happens. In the UK we have a large tidal range (up to 10m in some places), so 0.5 to 1.0m increase is less of a problem. What will impact the UK is storm surges along the east coast of the UK. The Med are is probably more affected in the eastern Med, particularly the Nile Delta. 5.- In a global way, do we still the chance to correct this tendency? How many time do we have to act in that way? For sea level it is probably too late. For large temperature increases, we still have a chance. 6.- Reduce the emissions means to change our standard of living and economical. Do you think that people is really aware of it? No they aren't. I'm coming to the meeting by Ryanair to Reus. The flight costs £70 return. This is a few pounds less than the return rail fare between Norwich and London. This is wrong. It isn't just about standard of living, it is getting our priorities right. 7.- One of your speciality is paleoclimatology. It is necessary to study the dinosaur age to be able to predict the near future or which is the most outstanding period for studying? No! The only recent period that is relevant for the future is the last 2000 years. For earlier periods back to the dinosaurs, the boundary conditions were different. The amount of day hours at different latitudes changes enough prior to 2000 years ago. Back with the dinosaurs the continents were in different positions. 8.- How can you study the climate in periods when there werent reliable instruments? We develop reconstructions from proxy records - trees, ice cores, corals and documentary records. These are for the last 2000 years. There are other proxies as well for longer periods. 9.- From which global increase of temperatures there is a real biological risk? Yes. As the ocean temperature increases, it is also becoming more acidic due to absorbing CO2. Animals that make shells will no longer be able to make their shells if the pH becomes more negative. With higher temperatures there will be more coral bleaching events. 10.- Do you believe that some of the actual illnesses already have any relationship with temperature increase? Not sure what you mean. If you mean human illnesses, then this is quite difficult to prove. There are some studies suggesting that human-induced climate change has affected the areas influenced by malaria. ___________________________________________________________________________________ Disfruta antes que nadie del nuevo [1]Windows Live Messenger Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------