cc: richard.somerville@wanadoo.fr, mmanning@al.noaa.gov date: Mon Jul 25 16:24:49 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: tropical cyclones to: Kevin Trenberth , ssolomon@al.noaa.gov Susan, It is good news if Kerry has dropped off that BAMS paper, but we both think he is still on. Kerry would be a welcome addition to the CA list, but can we add him after the FOD. We are rushing trying to complete other sections at the moment and don't want to go back to sections we are happy with now. So can we suggest Kerry is a reviewer, and if he feels it needs extensively modifying we get him involved during the SOD process. If he's happy with our draft on TCs it might be better having him outside the process than in, when it comes to any flak later. Phil At 15:18 25/07/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi Susan FYI, I have had quite a few exchanges with Kerry after some contacts via Rick Anthes, not too long ago. Kerry will be here first week of August and is giving a seminar. I presume the seminar is on his paper coming out in Nature which I have a copy of and which is already in our chapter. In it he develops a new destructive potential index for tropical storms. It is similar to the ACE I used in the Science paper. The latter is accumulated energy, relates to v**2. Kerry goes a step further and computes dissipated which is related more to v**3, so it emphasizies the big guys more. He concludes that this index "show a substantial upward trend beginning in the mid 1970s, roughly doubling since then. This trend is owing to trends both toward longer storm lifetimes and toward greater storm intensity." This is global although he focusses most on Atlantic and NW Pacific. It is difficult to go back before the satellite era of the late 1960s. A lot of our excahnges related to the Pielke et al paper cvoming out in BAMS. He was approached by Pielke Jr and Landsea and he says he play a major role in toning it down, and thus felt obligated to remain an author, in spite of the fact that the messages there are in conflict with is Nature paper. I pointed out several such conflicts: the BAMS article says we don't know enough Science to say anything useful: Kerry and I agree we can do a lot better than that. And then his conclusion fits very well with mine, drawn independently as given in my Science article. But last I heard he was still an author? As you know Kerry reviewed the ZOD, which had troubles and mixed stuff coming mainly from Albert. The FOD has changed completely and has a major new figure. I would be glad if Kerry reviews it; whether he needs to be CA is not clear at this point. I would say not. You are wlecome to review the text of that section. It has been stable now for some time. Thanks Kevin ssolomon@al.noaa.gov wrote: Dear Kevin and Phil, Informally via Richard Somerville, Kerry Emmanuel has today volunteered to serve as a CA on the topic of tropical cyclones. You may want to consider an option of sending him your draft text for that subsection, if you think it would be practical and helpful to iterate with him before your draft is due in the middle of August. I am passing this on to you for information, recognizing that it is quite late for that. It may be worth noting that according to Richard, I understand that Kerry has withdrawn his name from the Pielke/Landsea piece that is due to appear in BAMS, and that Kerry has another piece of his own on this topic that is submitted to Nature. It is entirely your call. best regards, Susan -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------