date: Tue May 23 14:21:27 2000 from: Mike Hulme subject: Re: NCAR-PCM to: Martin D Crossley Martin, Please email Jerry Meehl regarding this problem: Say you are working for me with regard to the IPCC DDC. See if he can explain why in the NCAR PCM3 run the forced climate is *cooler* than the control climate for until the 2040s or so. You could include the numbers calculated below for his information. Please cc correspondence to me. Mike At 14:28 22/05/00 +0100, you wrote: >Mike, > >I've checked my program thoroughly and can see no >obvious bug. And as I mentioned, the routine for >tackling NCAR-PCM is exactly the same as that used >for every other GCM except that the input files >for the 61-90 period are taken from a different >directory. > >I also checked that the 61-90 mean from the control >run is comparable with the means from other GCMs, >and they look very similar to me in the cases I >checked. > >I've included the time series below, both for the >business-as-usual run (NCPGS1B) and the stabilisation >run (NCPGS1S). >Note that although I include annual means for the >control data for the period 1960-1999, I only use >1961-1990 in forming the mean. > >Martin > > >YEAR NCPGS1B >6190 286.74277 > >[control :] >1960 -0.08875 >1961 -0.20856 >1962 -0.13785 >1963 0.02277 >1964 -0.03659 >1965 0.05637 >1966 -0.00839 >1967 -0.13828 >1968 -0.19644 >1969 -0.11133 >1970 0.07605 >1971 -0.03027 >1972 -0.09387 >1973 0.22214 >1974 -0.06079 >1975 0.06351 >1976 0.10175 >1977 0.17221 >1978 0.16547 >1979 0.04883 >1980 0.07635 >1981 -0.10385 >1982 -0.08041 >1983 0.00983 >1984 0.24872 >1985 0.02594 >1986 -0.03339 >1987 -0.00064 >1988 -0.01929 >1989 0.03671 >1990 -0.06699 >1991 -0.12717 >1992 0.01978 >1993 -0.04269 >1994 -0.01257 >1995 -0.00006 >1996 -0.11758 >1997 0.00540 >1998 -0.02951 >1999 -0.00125 > >[business-as-usual run :] >2000 -0.76505 >2001 -0.86383 >2002 -0.86072 >2003 -0.75986 >2004 -0.61319 >2005 -0.79550 >2006 -0.69528 >2007 -0.74429 >2008 -0.64893 >2009 -0.71072 >2010 -0.57574 >2011 -0.54633 >2012 -0.71234 >2013 -0.71426 >2014 -0.65005 >2015 -0.70306 >2016 -0.58679 >2017 -0.57159 >2018 -0.53305 >2019 -0.59741 >2020 -0.63260 >2021 -0.50385 >2022 -0.60010 >2023 -0.42813 >2024 -0.36652 >2025 -0.45493 >2026 -0.41818 >2027 -0.44031 >2028 -0.35416 >2029 -0.29910 >2030 -0.55313 >2031 -0.41995 >2032 -0.55869 >2033 -0.57980 >2034 -0.36691 >2035 -0.32251 >2036 -0.37299 >2037 -0.26385 >2038 -0.22482 >2039 -0.19165 >2040 -0.01492 >2041 -0.30432 >2042 -0.20059 >2043 -0.21194 >2044 -0.20837 >2045 -0.11777 >2046 -0.12970 >2047 -0.04547 >2048 -0.02649 >2049 -0.09222 >2050 -0.02792 >2051 0.00357 >2052 0.09216 >2053 0.12808 >2054 0.22534 >2055 0.15384 >2056 0.31268 >2057 0.35822 >2058 0.33572 >2059 0.12524 >2060 0.36258 >2061 0.41537 >2062 0.27356 >2063 0.24460 >2064 0.53967 >2065 0.54297 >2066 0.39804 >2067 0.30899 >2068 0.42349 >2069 0.53351 >2070 0.58847 >2071 0.48438 >2072 0.58530 >2073 0.36227 >2074 0.61975 >2075 0.67456 >2076 0.61359 >2077 0.74884 >2078 0.87296 >2079 0.62286 >2080 0.62402 >2081 0.71304 >2082 0.85803 >2083 0.68823 >2084 0.79315 >2085 0.76871 >2086 0.70645 >2087 0.81143 >2088 0.86765 >2089 0.87503 >2090 1.02676 >2091 0.90891 >2092 1.05710 >2093 1.02731 >2094 0.98199 >2095 0.87946 >2096 0.97684 >2097 1.09155 >2098 1.09805 >2099 0.94574 > > >YEAR NCPGS1S >6190 286.74277 > >[stabilisation run :] >2005 -0.57910 >2006 -0.86676 >2007 -0.74680 >2008 -0.70819 >2009 -0.73660 >2010 -0.74423 >2011 -0.64572 >2012 -0.80518 >2013 -0.80658 >2014 -0.76810 >2015 -0.58145 >2016 -0.58902 >2017 -0.75735 >2018 -0.59406 >2019 -0.49078 >2020 -0.49503 >2021 -0.50415 >2022 -0.42328 >2023 -0.59503 >2024 -0.53708 >2025 -0.47845 >2026 -0.41052 >2027 -0.51160 >2028 -0.46021 >2029 -0.33868 >2030 -0.44501 >2031 -0.29114 >2032 -0.30960 >2033 -0.18628 >2034 -0.34482 >2035 -0.30707 >2036 -0.29611 >2037 -0.32172 >2038 -0.28311 >2039 -0.14508 >2040 -0.31396 >2041 -0.26520 >2042 -0.25455 >2043 -0.16681 >2044 -0.10486 >2045 -0.32779 >2046 -0.21799 >2047 -0.14157 >2048 -0.02283 >2049 0.03479 >2050 -0.03860 >2051 0.06427 >2052 0.05716 >2053 0.17859 >2054 0.00177 >2055 -0.01874 >2056 0.09573 >2057 0.27472 >2058 0.13254 >2059 0.02664 >2060 0.21222 >2061 0.07574 >2062 0.20096 >2063 0.21109 >2064 0.23303 >2065 0.22922 >2066 0.29306 >2067 0.24631 >2068 0.35562 >2069 0.36069 >2070 0.51767 >2071 0.40424 >2072 0.36377 >2073 0.47241 >2074 0.36966 >2075 0.37009 >2076 0.45740 >2077 0.45422 >2078 0.43167 >2079 0.31277 >2080 0.44144 >2081 0.41150 >2082 0.38437 >2083 0.30783 >2084 0.25665 >2085 0.33255 >2086 0.32611 >2087 0.41238 >2088 0.50351 >2089 0.45911 >2090 0.41510 >2091 0.49271 >2092 0.63751 >2093 0.40604 >2094 0.61823 >2095 0.70343 >2096 0.50998 >2097 0.55185 >2098 0.52338 >2099 0.66074 > >