cc: "Martin Parry - home" <PARRYML@aol.com>
date: Mon Apr 30 13:08:58 2001
from: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
subject: RE: Away from the Office
to: <s.park-dwyer@uea.ac.uk>

Sarah (& Martin),

Attached is the final figure that you wanted, showing the delay in cumulated exceedences under the mitigation scenarios.  I'd already written the program last week and was just waiting for the data, which I've just got from David - so here (at last) is the plot showing results under the various scenarios.  Notes:

(1) The 99% (orange) and IS92a (red) are almost identical and therefore overlap each other so the red line is only occassionally visible (and when it is visible, the yellow line is hiding the orange - so you never see them all at the same time).

(2) The IS92a (i.e., unmitigated) MAGICC simulation is *not* identical to the HadCM2 results, so the red/orange curve on the new plot is slightly delayed compared with the HadCM2 graph that you already have.  The HadCM2 warming is about 5 years ahead of the MAGICC simulation, so I've not shown HadCM2 here because it would confuse matters ('cos the 5 year timing difference is similar to the effects of mitigation, except for the 10% scenario when the delay in threshold exceedence can be much more than 5 years.

Regards

Tim