date: Mon, 28 Jan 2008 16:22:23 -0000 from: "Jenkins, Geoff" subject: RE: [ukcip08-pmg] awareness raising workshop slides to: "Anna Steynor" , "UKCIP08" , "Sexton, David" , "Humphrey, Kathryn \(CEOSA\)" , "C G Kilsby" , "Phil Jones" Thanks for sending these, Anna. I am sending back some quick comments as I think you have a workshop coming up very soon. Slide 10: bullet 2 - add variability, but delete trends (as 30y climate is assumed to be stationary), bullet 5 - add 2 is like, and the variability around that typical day" Slide 21: would prefer that the term "internal" isnt use as this will confuse with internal variability - same comment applies to some later slides. Suggest a slide before this one to show the 3 sources of uncertainty - variability/chaos, modelling and emissions. Slide 29: add "variants" Slode 30: Most of the weighting of the model variants will come from how well it does recent climate (61-90) - the fig seems to suggest it is how well it does the trend (which is part of it but not most imp) Slide 33: delete internal in bullett one Slide 34: instead of "added in" which makes it sound as if the other models were treated as just one of the MOHC family, might be better to say "....other IPCC models are incorporated into the overall uncertainty estimate" Slide 36: same comment Slide 37: "based on our current understanding, modelling and methodology, there is a % prob". Couldn't work out what the dot at 3.4 represents, or indeed the line from 1.3 - 4.8 along the x-axis? Slide 38: Please delete quote from Descartes - we expressly don't want users to follow what is most probable, but to use the whole of the PDF. Slide 39: I like the distinction, but prefer inductive to subjective, and prefer "strength of evidence" to belief, which sound a bit religious. Slide 41: OK, its not objective in the dice way, but does use a formal scientific methodology. Didn't underrstand the last bullet which seems to be more associated with emissions, which is NOT part of the probabilistic climate projection. Suggest delete. Slide 42: again, would say evidence rather than belief. Slide 44: bullet 2 ....change for a specific probability. "direction of change"? of course we have seen the prob can stretch across both directions (eg summer ppn). Slide 46: suggest delete the "per deg C" from the PDF and just use relative probability. add to CDF diagram "prob of change being less than". Slide 47: again, prefer "evidence for" rather than "belief in" Slides 54-60: allowing the build up of bullets to remain through the sequence gives some problems, eg when 25km grid is up at the same time as the 3 marine slides - none of which are at 25km, or have daily max and min temp etc. Slide 63: I know you don't like time series for some reason, but I think "statistical expression" is misleading. I use synthetic daily time series. Slide 64: can we hold on the hourly for a while, please - I think we may need to talk this over again. Looks a lot of commnets, sorry, but most of them are v simple. Please get back if I have not been clear. Only other comment is that you may need to have a few slides on what a PDF and CDF is - there seemed to be a lack of understanding of this at the Oxford wksp and it is absolutely central to the whole scenarios, so worth labouring, I suggest. Roger was down at PMG to send the timetable of the next couple of workshops - could you send me this as I would like to come to one of them please. Cheers Geoff -----Original Message----- From: ukcip08-pmg-bounces@zonda.badc.rl.ac.uk [mailto:ukcip08-pmg-bounces@zonda.badc.rl.ac.uk] On Behalf Of Anna Steynor Sent: 24 January 2008 09:57 To: ukcip08-pmg@zonda.badc.rl.ac.uk Subject: [ukcip08-pmg] awareness raising workshop slides All We took an action at the PMG to send you the ppt slides we are using for the awareness raising workshops. All the material we are giving to the delegates is available from this link http://www.ukcip.org.uk/scenarios/ukcip08/08_training.asp Kind Regards Anna Anna Steynor Science Team UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) Oxford University Centre for the Environment (OUCE) South Parks Road Oxford OX1 3QY Tel: 01865 285532 Fax: 01865 285710 www.ukcip.org.uk _______________________________________________ ukcip08-pmg mailing list ukcip08-pmg@badc.nerc.ac.uk http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/mailman/listinfo/ukcip08-pmg