cc: Manrique Rojas date: Mon, 1 May 2000 11:01:46 +0200 from: Jamie Skinner subject: FW: new US govt. report on water and climate change to: "Nigel Arnell [N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk] (E-mail)" , "Mike Hulme [m.hulme@uea.ac.uk] (E-mail)" Dear Mike and Nigel, Many thanks for the hard copies of the reports and the disk. I have taken a break over Easter but just wanted to acknowledged receipt and to send you this web reference, should you be interested, Best wishes Jamie Jamie Skinner Senior Advisor - environment World Commission on dams 58 Loop street PO Box 16002 Vlaeberg, Cape Town 8018 South Africa tel : ++ 27 21 426 4000 fax : ++ 27 21 426 0036 www.dams.org -----Original Message----- From: Patrick McCully [SMTP:patrick@irn.org] Sent: Saturday, April 29, 2000 3:58 AM To: jskinner@dams.org; deb@edf.org Subject: fyi: new US govt. report on water and climate change X-Sender: ebrink@pop3.netvista.net Date: Tue, 25 Apr 2000 10:29:20 -0700 To: patrick@irn.org From: Elizabeth Brink > Subject: CC and Water Resources in US Hi P- This all started from a sound clip I heard from one of my news services with Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute saying that a recent official US report recommends no new large infrastructure projects and a focus on conservation due to potential uncertainties related to climate change. It turns out the report is currently in draft form, available for public comment until May 20, 2000. Title of the official project - The U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change on Water Resources Coordinating Agency - US Department of the Interior Here's the Web location of the entire draft report - http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov/sectors/water/draft-report/ One of the most interesting sections for our purposes is Coping and Adaptation, specifically Water Planning and Management (http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov/sectors/water/draft-report/coping.html#Coping) , which includes a recommendation for an "emphasis on planning and demand management rather than construction of new facilities marks a change in traditional water-management approaches, which in the past have relied on the construction of large and expensive infrastructure." Here's their summary- The U.S. National Assessment Draft Report of the Water Sector of the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change - summary (http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov/sectors/water/draft-report/summary.html#Summary) - As the new century begins, many challenging factors face the public, water planners and managers, and policymakers. Changes in population, economic conditions, technology, policies, and the relative values of society will be important determinants of future water supply and demand. On top of these complexities, human-induced changes in our basic climatic conditions must also be taken into account. More than twenty years of research and more than a thousand peer-reviewed scientific papers have firmly established that a greenhouse warming will alter the supply and demand for water, the quality of water, and the health and functioning of aquatic ecosystems. As noted throughout this report the detailed nature of future climate changes and their impacts remain uncertain. These uncertainties are obstacles to introducing climate impacts into investment or operational decisions. The first line of defense for protecting the nation's water resources must therefore be a strong and consistent research and monitoring program to continue to evaluate climate-related risks. Where climate changes are minor or where other factors dominate, the impacts on our water resources may be low. In some regions and for some issues, climate changes may even reduce the risks imposed by growing populations, industrialization, and land-use changes. A growing body of evidence, however, shows that U.S. water resources are sensitive to both climate and to how these complex water systems are managed. In many cases and in many locations, there is compelling scientific evidence that climate changes will pose serious challenges to our water systems. Of particular concern are climate changes that cause impacts that are larger than other expected changes, different in nature than expected changes, or imposed on top of existing long-term challenges. In these instances, the marginal economical, ecological, and social costs to society could be substantial. The United States has an enormous investment in dams, reservoirs, aqueducts, water treatment facilities, and other concrete structures. These systems were designed and are operated assuming that future climatic and hydrologic conditions will have the same characteristics as past conditions. We now know that this is no longer a valid assumption. Some managers are beginning to explore how different operating rules and regimes might reduce future climate risks; this kind of evaluation should be encouraged. The relative socioeconomic and environmental impacts of both climatic and non-climatic impacts on the supply and demand for water will depend in large part on the ability to foresee major changes, to adapt to such changes, to be flexible in the face of probable surprises, and to be innovative in the management and allocation of the nation's water resources. Maintaining options and building in dynamic flexibility are important for designing and operating water systems that will continue to meet our needs in the coming decades. Elizabeth