date: Tue Nov 23 15:35:22 2004 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: FWD: Weather and climate/ TYNDALL SEMINAR to: f034 , , Craig Wallace , Marie Ekstrom Agreed. This would be one to avoid. Phil At 14:56 23/11/2004, f034 wrote: Phil, Marie, Craig If this seminar turns into an arguement between Alan and John along the lines of this correspondence, then I don't think CRU would want to be involved/responsible! Clare >===== Original Message From "Laura Middleton" ===== >Dear Clare, Craig and Marie, >I thought this might be good as a joint tyndall CRU seminar, or maybe I've >got it horribly wrong! Provisional dates feb/march. >Let me know. Laura > >-----Original Message----- >From: John Schellnhuber [[1]mailto:H.J.Schellnhuber@uea.ac.uk] >Sent: Tuesday, November 23, 2004 11:12 >To: A.J.Thorpe >Cc: John Schellnhuber; Laura Middleton >Subject: Re: Weather and climate/ TYNDALL SEMINAR >Importance: High > >Excellent! I will copy this to Laura, who is organizing the Tyndall Seminar >and who will try to find a convenient date in February or March. > >I am looking forward to a very interesting discussion! > >Regards, >John > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "A.J.Thorpe" >To: "John Schellnhuber" >Sent: Tuesday, November 23, 2004 10:51 AM >Subject: Re: Weather and climate > > >> John, >> >> I would be very happy to come to Tyndall to give a seminar with a >title >> something like "Putting weather into climate: a WWRP perspective on >climate >> change prediction". WWRP = World Weather Research Programme. I guess we >may >> be looking at February for a possible time slot? >> >> Uncertainties will never be zero - all we can do is properly quantify >> them with the same scientific rigour that we apply to the prediction >itself. >> I don't accept the association between GCMs and low, or no, uncertainty. >No >> prediction should come without a scientifically-defined and rigorous >> uncertainty estimate. >> >> Alan >> >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> Professor Alan J. Thorpe >> Director, NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science >> Dept of Meteorology, University of Reading, >> Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB >> >> Tel: + 44 (0) 118 378 6979/6452 >> Fax: + 44 (0) 118 378 6462 >> Mobile: 0774 771 5842 >> Email: A.J.Thorpe@reading.ac.uk >> Web: [2]http://ncas.nerc.ac.uk >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: "John Schellnhuber" >> To: "Alan Thorpe" >> Cc: "John Schellnhuber" >> Sent: Tuesday, November 23, 2004 10:08 AM >> Subject: Re: Weather and climate >> >> >> > Dear Alan, >> > >> > Interesting debate - I wonder whether we should pursue it in a more >> > organized way: would you be willing to come for a Tyndall seminar in due >> > course to present your ideas? This could have a significant impact on >our >> > Phase II strategy. And it would be fun, anyway, to discuss these subtle >> > issues with you. >> > >> > Just one remark on your note: Hadley is number one - in the GCM field - >> but >> > is this the most important field for climate change management? You >cannot >> > wait for starting climate protection policy until all uncertainties have >> > been removed. So it boils done again to what we mean by precaution. >> > >> > Would be nice to see you soon for further exchange of arguments. >> > >> > Regards, >> > John >> > >> > >> > >> > ----- Original Message ----- >> > From: "Alan Thorpe" >> > To: "John Schellnhuber" >> > Sent: Monday, November 22, 2004 8:00 PM >> > Subject: Re: Weather and climate >> > >> > >> > > John, >> > > >> > > Thanks for this - I wonder if you should contact the BBC and THES >as >> > > they use your words in quotation marks. >> > > >> > > In fact I don't agree with you about the intellectual advancement >> > point. >> > > Climate impacts are in fact mostly expressed by the details of >weather. >> So >> > > at any level weather and climate are intimately intertwined - basic >> > science >> > > or impacts. NERC currently spends over £60M per annum on climate >change >> > but >> > > rather little on weather research. >> > > >> > > I agree that the tipping points are important to understand. But I >> > > remain to be convinced about intermediate complexity models (ICM) as a >> > tool >> > > to inform policy. Current full-complexity climate models are pretty >> coarse >> > > grain and I think we need to be more up front about the large >> > uncertainties >> > > in them. Computing resources are such that we can, if we pool them, >run >> at >> > > much higher resolution than currently. Then we can have credible >> > > simulations. Removing some of the complexity (in a ICM) seems to me to >> be >> > an >> > > intellectually backward step. If we had access to computing power like >> the >> > > Earth Simulator we could keep the complexity. Producing a bad answer >now >> > (by >> > > throwing out some of the known physics) is probably worse than waiting >> a >> > > little while until we can get close to the right answer. There are >> enough >> > > known unknowns without throwing out some known knowns! >> > > >> > > Advances in climate and weather models go hand in hand so funding >> one >> > is >> > > useful to the other. This is not just philosophy, it works >practically - >> > > this is why the Hadley Centre is number one in the world actually. >> > > >> > > Alan >> > > >> > > ------------------- >> > > > Dear Alan, >> > > > >> > > > I am sorry for - inadvertantly - alarming you. My response to your >> note >> > > > comes in two pieces. >> > > > >> > > > 1. I did not make the statement in question at the ESOF 2004. I had >a >> > > phone >> > > > chat with Alex Kirby, BBC, some time before the conference, where we >> may >> > > > have touched upon the relative importance of weather vs. climate >> > research, >> > > > and I possibly said that the balance is still not right. I certainly >> did >> > > not >> > > > say that we are spending TOO MUCH on weather forecasting - the >> > proportion >> > > > would have to be corrected by INCREASING the funds for climate >change >> > > > science, of course. >> > > > >> > > > 2. My quintessential point, however, remains the concern that we >might >> > > > miss/overlook the points of no return in the Earth System, i.e., the >> > > > strategic intervention options, while we push the weather forecast >> > horizon >> > > > by a day or so per decade, using incredible amounts of human >ingenuity >> > and >> > > > resources. The latter is important, but - perhaps - less crucial >right >> > now >> > > > while we may be about to destabilize the planetary machinery at >large! >> > So >> > > > it's " first things first! ". >> > > > >> > > > I assume that you have a similar perspective on the relative >> importance >> > of >> > > > intellectual advancement. I fully appreciate your point about a >> holistic >> > > > approach, yet we may not have the time to wait until the all- >> timescales >> > > > hierarchy of fluid dynamics models has emerged through bottom-up >> > > evolution. >> > > > Physics-based models of intermediate complexity or preliminary 3D >> Earth >> > > > System models might be needed in the meantime and have to be >properly >> > > > funded. I'd be happy to pursue this debate if you feel that you >cannot >> > > agree >> > > > with me here. >> > > > >> > > > On the other hand, I PROMISE to make sure that any statement of mine >> on >> > > the >> > > > weather-climate nexus cannot be misused for dividing the community - >> nor >> > > for >> > > > letting the funders off some hook. >> > > > >> > > > Regards, >> > > > John >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > Original Message ----- >> > > > From: "Alan Thorpe" >> > > > To: >> > > > Sent: Saturday, November 13, 2004 10:44 AM >> > > > Subject: Weather and climate >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > > John, >> > > > > >> > > > > I was alarmed to see you quoted in the Times Higher Education >> > > > Supplement >> > > > > this week: "We're investing too much in things like improving the >> > > accuracy >> > > > > of our weather forecasts ........". I hope it is a mis-quote but I >> see >> > > > that >> > > > > the BBC website gives the same quote as coming from a talk you >gave >> at >> > a >> > > > > Euro conference in August. >> > > > > >> > > > > Aside from the socio-economic benefits of weather forecasts, >> which >> > > are >> > > > > huge, any suggestion of a dichotomy between weather and climate >> > > prediction >> > > > > is false. Climate impacts will come in major part through weather >> > events >> > > > and >> > > > > it will be the forecasting of these that actually matters to >> society. >> > > Also >> > > > > climate models have at their core global weather models and are >> > actually >> > > > > only as good as their ability to describe accurately the weather >> > systems >> > > > and >> > > > > their nonlinear averaging as input to climate. So improving >weather >> > > > > forecasts helps to improve climate forecasts. I, and a lot of >> others, >> > > have >> > > > > been trying hard to stop any wedge being driven between weather >and >> > > > climate >> > > > > research. We are working towards a holistic and integrated >> forecasting >> > > > > system on time ranges from minutes to decades. >> > > > > >> > > > > Alan >> > > > > >> > > > > ********************************************************* >> > > > > Professor Alan J. Thorpe >> > > > > Director, NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science >> > > > > Dept of Meteorology, University of Reading, >> > > > > Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB >> > > > > >> > > > > Tel: + 44 (0) 118 931 6979/6452 >> > > > > Fax: + 44 (0) 118 931 6462 >> > > > > Mobile: 0774 771 5842 >> > > > > Email: A.J.Thorpe@reading.ac.uk >> > > > > Web: [3]http://ncas.nerc.ac.uk >> > > > > >> > > > > ********************************************************* >> > > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > >> > > >> > > ********************************************************* >> > > Professor Alan J. Thorpe >> > > Director, NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science >> > > Dept of Meteorology, University of Reading, >> > > Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB >> > > >> > > Tel: + 44 (0) 118 931 6979/6452 >> > > Fax: + 44 (0) 118 931 6462 >> > > Mobile: 0774 771 5842 >> > > Email: A.J.Thorpe@reading.ac.uk >> > > Web: [4]http://ncas.nerc.ac.uk >> > > >> > > ********************************************************* >> > > >> > >> > >> >> Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------