cc: "Matilde Rusticucci" <mati@at.fcen.uba.ar>
date: Wed Jul 13 14:39:07 2005
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Figure 3.7.5
to: mati@at.fcen.uba.ar, "Kevin Trenberth" <trenbert@ucar.edu>

    Matilde,
       Thanks. I have printed the paper off and will read along with one by Botta et al.
    in GRL from 2002.
       Just some text seems fine.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 13:58 13/07/2005, Matilde Rusticucci wrote:

     Kevin, Phil
     > Ok all let me try to clear this up a bit.
     > 1) The Figure from Marengo is amongst those in the Figure file on the
     > ftp site.  At present it is not included in the text, although the
     > result is discussed.  Is this adequate or should we include this figure?
     I think that this is adequate. No figure but results discussed in the text.
     > 2) The figure is spectacular but concern has been expressed about whther
     > it is real: it it fully believable?  Is it reproducible with other
     > data?  If there are any questions about this then there is more reason
     > to not include it.
     In the same paper, Marengo compares the calculated indices with NCEP, CMAP
      GHCN and CRU data. Because the figure caption has some errors,
     itīs a little difficult to follow, but he says in the text that his
     data-based indices and CRU are positively and significantly correlated.
     No relation seems to be with NCEP, (19291999).
     In particular:
     "In northern Amazonia, the NAR index shows a negative trend while NCEP
     rainfall and the CMAP datasets show a positive trend. (194899)
     In southern Amazonia,rainfall from gauge observation and from the
     gridded datasets CRU, CMAP and the NCEP
     rainfall show a positive trend also significant at
     5% level. "
     IN MY UNDERSTANDING THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT STATION DATA ARE INCORRECT
     but the others could be...
     > 3) There was also the desire that if we did include it, could it be
     > updated?  The answer seems to be no.
     >
     The answer is NO
     > If that is the case then we are back to should we include it or not?
     > Matilde I thought you had views about the credibility of the figure?
     > Kevin
     >
     I hope I have explained it clearly for you, is it done now?
     (if not, we can try in Spanish ...)
     cheers,
     Matilde

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
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