date: Mon, 26 Mar 2007 10:48:53 +0100 from: "Mitchell, John FB \(Chief Scientist\)" subject: RE: Awful Ch 4 programme to: "Phil Jones" Thanks Phil Mark Galliani also spotted this and corrections are in hand You are right , there is lot more we could add- I chose what I thought werefive of th ekey issues and tried to keep it short and simple Gareth Jones can give chapter and verse on the solar curve ( I have asked our press office to incude some basic information on source) "I should have said what the source exactly was. Solanki and Krivova 2003 is a reconstruction based on sunspots. The 11 year cycle of sunspots is scaled to match the recent satellite record to obtain the 11 year cycle component into the past. The mean cycle amplitude is used to obtain the underlying longer term variations, scaled to match estimates of Maunder Minimum to present day change in solar irradiance as deduced from observations of stars. It is this latter stage which recent work suggests is much lower than previously thought. Yes the last 30 years does come from satellite data. PMOD is the one reconstruction from satellites by "Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos" as shown in Frohlich papers (as in Frolich and Lean fame). There are other satellite reconstructions (see latest IPCC chap" I have not mentioned the CH4 program deliberately- as it happens, people think I am an adviser to the program (NO!)- see CH4s website on the programme and follow "ask the expert" They had over 800 questions-- 20 will be selected and I will chose 8-10 - don't when that will be on the site John Professor John Mitchell OBE FRS Chief Scientist, Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB United Kingdom Tel. +44(0)1392884604 Fax:+44 (0) 870 9005050 E-mail: john.f.mitchell@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 26 March 2007 10:43 To: Mitchell, John FB (Chief Scientist) Cc: Jenkins, Geoff Subject: Awful Ch 4 programme > > John, A couple of things about the web page on Climate Myths. 1. The recent eruptions were in 1982 (El Chichon) and 1991 (Pinatubo). Effects were mostly in the years you've given (so cooling then), but they occurred the year before. 2. On Myth 5, you could add that models have run the last millennium as well as the last hundred years. Related to this, is the solar activity in Myth 4 the new Judith Lean series? I could add many more myths, relating to frost fairs, the MWP, urbanization etc , if you should ever choose to add to this page. Philip Stott in that same program alluded to Frost Fairs and the MWP. There is no need for the UK to consider frost fairs, when we have the Manley CET record, Luterbacher's Swiss reconstructions and the Dutch seasonal reconstructions back to 1250. By the way, the skeptics may one day realise that the only bias in the surface temperature data that really matters is the bucket/intake one. The page is linked off the CRU site. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ----