date: Sun, 05 Oct 2003 16:24:28 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: Fwd: EOS: Soon et al reply to: Caspar Ammann , rbradley@geo.umass.edu, Keith Briffa , tom crowley , "Malcolm Hughes" , omichael@princeton.edu, Tim Osborn , Jonathan Overpeck , Scott Rutherford , Kevin Trenberth , Tom Wigley , Phil Jones , mann@virginia.edu p.s. one other point that needs to be addressed in this: the supposed inconsistency w/ boreholes. There are two issues here: one involves whether the borehole GST estimates are representative of past SAT variations, and there are now numerous peer-reviewed studies that suggest the answer is "no". So its an 'apples and organges' issue, which is a diplomatic way of putting it w/out getting into the specific disagreements between Pollack and coworkers, and many of the rest of us (which would detract from our message). The other point is that Pollack and others have indicated that they don't believe the boreholes have sensitivity to temperature changes more than 500 years ago or so, and that these longer-term estimates that S&B refer to that supposedly show a Medieval warm period, are not trusted by even Pollack and coworkers--I believe Tom C (Tom?) has written on this at some point? look forward to comments, mike At 04:19 PM 10/5/2003 -0400, Michael E. Mann wrote: Dear Colleagues, Sorry to have to bother you all with this-- I know how busy our schedules are, and this comes at an unfortunately busy time for many of us I would guss. But I think we *do* have to respond, and I'm hoping that the response can be, again, something we all sign our names to. I've asked Ellen for further guidance on the length limits of our response, and the due date for our response. The criticisms are remarkably weak, and easy to reply to in my view. S&B have thus unwittingly, in my view, provided us with a further opportunity to expose the most egregious of the myths perpetuated by the contrarians (S&B have managed to cram them all in there) in the format of a response to their comment. THeir comment includes a statement about how the article is all based on Mann et al [1999] which is pretty silly given what is stated in the article, and what is shown in Figure 1. It would be appropriate to begin our response by pointing out this obvious straw man. Then there is some nonsense about the satellite record and urban heat islands that Phil, Kevin, and Tom W might in particular want to speak to. And Malcolm and Keith might like to speak to the comments on the supposed problems due to non-biological tree growth effects (which even if they were correctly described, which they aren't, have little relevance to several of the reconstructions shown, and all of the model simulation results shown). There is one paragraph about Mann and Jones [2003] which is right from the Idsos' "Co2 science" website, and Phil and I and Tim Osborn and others have already spoken too. I will draft a short comment on that. I'd like to solicit individual comments, sentences or paragraphs, etc. from each of you on the various points raised, and begin to assimilate this into a "response". I'll let you know as soon as I learn from Ellen how much space we have to work with. Sorry for the annoyance. I look forward to any contributions you can each provide towards a collective response. Thanks, mike Date: Sun, 05 Oct 2003 08:23:03 -0400 To: Caspar Ammann , rbradley@geo.umass.edu, Keith Briffa , Tom Crowley, "Malcolm Hughes" , omichael@princeton.edu, Tim Osborn , Jonathan Overpeck , Scott Rutherford , Kevin Trenberth , Tom Wigley From: "Michael E. Mann" Subject: Fwd: EOS: Soon et al reply Comments? Mike Delivered-To: mem6u@virginia.edu Date: Sat, 04 Oct 2003 12:33:04 -0400 From: Ellen Mosley-Thompson Subject: EOS: Soon et al reply X-Sender: ethompso@pop.service.ohio-state.edu To: "Michael E. Mann" Cc: lzirkel@agu.edu, jjacobs@agu.org X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.0.0.22 Dear Dr. Mann (and co-authors of the Forum piece that appeared in EOS), Dr. Willie Soon and his co-authors have submitted a reply to your Forum piece that I have accepted. Let me outline below the official AGU procedure for replies so that you know the options available. I have sent these same instructions to Dr. Soon. As you wrote the original piece you now have the opportunity to see their comment (attached) on your Forum piece. You may decide whether or not to send a reply. If you choose not to reply - their reply will be published alone. Should you decide to reply then your response will be published along with their comment on your paper. One little twist is that if you submit a reply, they are allowed to see the reply, but they can't comment on it. They have two options: they can let both their and your comments go forward and be published together or (after viewing your reply) they also have the option of withdrawing their comment. In the latter case, then neither their comment or your reply to the comment will be published. Yes this is a little contorted, but these are the instructions that I received from Judy Jacobs at AGU. I have attached the pdf of their comment. Please let me know within the next week whether you and your colleagues plan to prepare a reply. If so, then you would have several weeks to do this. I have copied Lee Zirkel and Judy Jacobs of AGU as this paper is out of the ordinary and I want to be sure that I am handling all this correctly. I look forward to hearing from you regarding your decision on a reply. Best regards, Ellen Mosley-Thompson EOS, Editor cc: Judy Jacobs and Lee Zirkel attachment ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml