date: Thu, 19 Feb 2009 08:51:20 -0500 from: Chet Ropelewski subject: Re: Request for a review to: Phil Jones Phil, Thanks for the informal comments and reprint. They will be useful for the review. I fear this submission is going to be a struggle. Yes, I'm in the DC area again. My office is in Silver Spring. Give me a head's up the next time you expect to be in the area. I planning to go to a reduced work schedule (3-days a week) early next year and expect to keep a hand in the game for a couple of years. Best -Chet Phil Jones wrote: > > Chet, > Glad to hear you have concerns about the paper! A lot of the issues > relate to the NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses producing temperature trends > that are less than in the HadCRUT3/NCDC/GISS surface temperatures > from the late 1950s. There is a paper by Kalnay and Cai (2003) that > claims > these differences result from Land-use/Land-cover effects - which is > total rubbish. Once the Reanalyses (ERA-40 as well) get better after the > satellite data start coming in all the differences disappear. > Attached is a nice paper on all this with ERA-40. > > It would be nice to meet up again - are you back in the DC area? > If you are I should tell you when I'm next in the area. I'm assuming > you're > not planning a holiday in the UK at any time! > > Cheers > Phil > > > At 13:22 18/02/2009, you wrote: >> Phil, >> Thanks for your suggestions. You confirm some of my concerns about >> this submission. I hope that we can cross paths again before I >> really retire. >> Best >> -Chet >> >> Phil Jones wrote: >>> >>> Chet, >>> I just knew it had to contain Roger Pielke Sr! It also has many >>> authors the same >>> from a paper in JGR that David Parker and others sent in a comment >>> about - >>> that was accepted a few weeks ago. I can guess it will say the >>> same sorts of things. >>> >>> A lot of the things they are saying have been established >>> haven't. They are not >>> as important as this paper will claim! >>> >>> So David would be a good reviewer. I'd just get too stroppy with >>> them, as Roger never >>> listens to anything said to him. >>> >>> David is >>> >>> David Parker Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 >>> 3PB UK >>> E-mail: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk >>> Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 http:www.metoffice.gov.uk >>> >>> Don't tell David I suggested him! >>> >>> Tom Peterson would be another good reviewer, but I can see there is >>> at least >>> one person from NCDC on the list. Another would be Kevin Trenberth, >>> but again >>> there is someone from NCAR in the author list. >>> >>> >>> Cheers >>> Phil >>> >>> >>> >>> At 17:25 17/02/2009, you wrote: >>>> Phil, >>>> Per your request. Abstract below. Auhor list attached. Thanks >>>> for your help. >>>> -Chet >>>> >>>> ABSTRACT >>>> 271 Human activities have modified the environment for thousands of >>>> years. >>>> 272 Significant population increase, migration, and accelerated >>>> socio-economic activities >>>> 273 have intensified these environmental changes over the last >>>> several centuries. The impacts >>>> 274 of these changes have been found in local, regional, and global >>>> trends in modern >>>> 275 atmospheric temperature records and other relevant climatic >>>> indicators. >>>> 276 One of the human influences on atmospheric temperature trends >>>> is extensive >>>> 277 land use land cover change (LULCC) and its climate forcing. >>>> Studies using both >>>> 278 modeled and observed data have documented these impacts (e.g., >>>> Chase et al. 2000; >>>> 279 Kalnay and Cai 2003; Feddema et al. 2005; Christy et al. 2006; >>>> Mahmood et al. 2006b; >>>> 280 Ezber et al. 2007; Nunez et al. 2008). Thus, it is essential >>>> that we detect LULCCs >>>> 281 accurately at appropriate scales and in a timely manner to >>>> better understand the impacts >>>> 282 on climate and provide improved prediction of future climate. >>>> 283 The National Research Council (2005) has recommended the >>>> broadening of the >>>> 284 climate change issue to include LULCC processes as an important >>>> climate forcing. The >>>> 285 findings of this report state: >>>> 286 "Regional variations in radiative forcing may have important >>>> regional and >>>> 287 global climatic implications that are not resolved by the >>>> concept of global mean radiative >>>> 288 forcing. Tropospheric aerosols and landscape changes have >>>> particularly heterogeneous >>>> 289 forcings. To date, there have been only limited studies of >>>> regional radiative forcing and >>>> 290 response. Indeed, it is not clear how best to diagnose a >>>> regional forcing and response in >>>> 291 the observational record; regional forcings can lead to global >>>> climate responses, while >>>> 292 global forcings can be associated with regional climate >>>> responses. Regional diabatic >>>> 293 heating can also cause atmospheric teleconnections that >>>> influence regional climate >>>> 294 thousands of kilometers away from the point of forcing. >>>> Improving societally relevant >>>> 295 projections of regional climate impacts will require a better >>>> understanding of the >>>> 296 magnitudes of regional forcings and the associated climate >>>> responses." >>>> 297 In short, the above discussion clearly identified the >>>> importance of LULCC in the climate >>>> 298 system. >>>> 299 It has also been established in the literature that biases, >>>> inaccuracies, and >>>> 300 imprecision have been introduced to the climate monitoring >>>> systems because of >>>> 301 meteorological station moves, instrument changes, improper >>>> exposure of instruments, and >>>> 302 changes in observation practices (Davey and Pielke 2005; Pielke >>>> et al. 2007a, b; >>>> 303 Mahmood et al. 2006a). Hence, we also need strategies that will >>>> help us to detect and >>>> 304 overcome these biases and thus lead to improved understanding >>>> of the role of land use >>>> 305 forcing within the climate system. >>>> 306 This paper has two main objectives. First, it highlights LULCC >>>> and its role >>>> 307 within the climate system. Examples include both long-term >>>> systematic change (e.g., >>>> 308 agricultural land use change, deforestation) and short-term >>>> abrupt change (e.g., rapid >>>> 309 urbanization). Second, the paper proposes a series of >>>> recommendations related to >>>> 310 detecting LULCC from observed climatic records, as well as >>>> modeling to improve our >>>> 311 understanding of LULCC and its impacts on climate. The latter >>>> also includes discussion >>>> 312 on why and how LULCC needs to be considered as a climate >>>> forcing and why it must be >>>> 313 included as a first-order effect in all climate assessments. >>>> >>>> >>>> Phil Jones wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Chet, >>>>> Bit busy - as always - for the next few weeks. Can you send the >>>>> abstract and the author list, to help me make some suggestions? >>>>> >>>>> Cheers >>>>> Phil >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> At 16:24 17/02/2009, you wrote: >>>>>> Hi Phil, >>>>>> >>>>>> Among the jobs that I can't seem to retire from is Climate >>>>>> Variability/Change Editor of the Bulletin of the American >>>>>> Meteorological Society (BAMS). I'm asking for your help as a >>>>>> reviewer. The submission is "Impacts of Land Use Land Cover >>>>>> Change on Climate and Future Research Priorities" by R. Mahmood >>>>>> and 37 co-authors. Given the number of co-authors and their >>>>>> affiliations it is a challenge to find un-conflicted reviewers >>>>>> who know the subject. >>>>>> The paper is actually a conference summary, fairly broad ranging, >>>>>> running 25 double-space pages. I would need comments in about 4 >>>>>> to 5 weeks. >>>>>> >>>>>> If you are not able to serve as a reviewer I would appreciate >>>>>> suggestions for alternatives, preferably outside the U.S. given >>>>>> the extensive list of authors, almost all of them from the U.S. >>>>>> >>>>>> I hope that all is well with you. I've "retired" after about >>>>>> 10 years at the IRI. I accepted a visiting scientist position >>>>>> at NOAA's Climate Program Office and doing more program >>>>>> management than I'd bargained for. The plan is to go to a >>>>>> reduced schedule about a year from now and perhaps return to more >>>>>> scientific endeavors. >>>>>> >>>>>> Best >>>>>> >>>>>> -Chet Ropelewski >>>>> >>>>> Prof. Phil Jones >>>>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>>>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>>>> University of East Anglia >>>>> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>>>> NR4 7TJ >>>>> UK >>>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>>> >>>> >>> >>> Prof. Phil Jones >>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>> University of East Anglia >>> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>> NR4 7TJ >>> UK >>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>> >> >> Prof. Phil Jones >> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >> University of East Anglia >> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >> NR4 7TJ >> UK >> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >