Covid-19 information

As the vaccination rollout has proceeded in the United States, new Covid-19 case numbers have been declining.

Table of contents

  1. References for Burton op-ed, Washington Times, Dec. 27-28, 2020: “Do the math!”
  2. Vaccine technical information (many links)
  3. WND: Scott Atlas is wrong, by Dave Burton, Sept. 2, 2020
  4. Worldometers tracks Covid-19 case and fatality counts, globally
  5. Vaccine rollout progress at OurWorldInData
  6. CDC Covid Data Tracker
  7. Covid-19 phylogeny
  8. Deseret News: The dysfunctional American regulatory state, by Sally Pipes
  9. LOS: Understanding “comorbidities”
  10. StatNews: “Long Covid” puzzles doctors
  11. The high prevelance of lingering symptoms
  12. Estimated relative risks of various common activities
  13. WaPo: CDC says most infections were via asymptomatic/presymptomatic spread
  14. Beware of the Simone Gold disinformation video
  15. Covid-19 far more deadly than people like Simone Gold claim
  16. The vaccines protect against infection, not just against symptomatic illness
  17. The Facts about the COVID Vaccines and Fetal Cell Lines, by Isaac Schorr, National Review
  18. Investigational Covid-19 treatments
  19. What the Coronavirus Variants Mean for the End of the Pandemic, by Dhruv Khullar, The New Yorker

Burton op-ed references, Washington Times, Dec. 27-28, 2020

Do the math! “Died with covid” means “died from covid” (usually)

These are the references for my Washington Times guest “analysis/opinion” column (Sunday Dec. 27 online, Monday Dec. 28 in print, archived here, pdf here). 

  1. The current U.S. population is about 332 million:
  2. In normal times, the U.S. records an average of about 230,000 deaths per month:
    That is about 230K/332M = 0.07% of the nation's population.
  3. Worldometers U.S. Covid-19 statistics (Mondays):
    Total deaths as of 2020-12-21: 327,448
    Total deaths as of 2020-12-14: 308,298
    Average deaths/day over week of Dec. 15-21: (327,448-308,298)/7=2736
    Total cases as of 2020-12-14: 16,947,548
    Total cases as of 2020-12-07: 15,415,382
    Average cases/day over week of Dec. 8-14: (16,947,548-15,415,382)/7=218,881
    Total cases as of 2020-11-30: 13,965,681
    Average cases/day over week of Dec. 1-7: (15,415,382-13,965,681)/7=207,100
    Average cases/day over two weeks: (16,947,548-13,965,681)/14=212,990
    Daily deaths as a percentage of cases 1 week prior: 2736/218,881=1.25%
    Daily deaths as a percentage of cases 2 weeks prior: 2736/207,100=1.32%
    Daily deaths as a percentage of cases 1 to 2 weeks prior: 2736/212,990=1.3%
    Latest U.S. totals (as of 8:30 a.m., 12/23/2020):
    Cases: 18,687,330
    Deaths: 330,841
    Recovered: 10,948,136
  4. U.S. Covid-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), calculated over entire pandemic = 330,841 deaths / (10,948,136 recoveries + 330,841 deaths) = 2.93%
  5. From CDC data, here's a spreadsheet of seasonal influenza statistics for the last ten flu seasons. The average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) was 0.121%
  6. The U.K. government reports that 88% of Covid-19 deaths occur within 28 days of diagnosis.

 Twitter Twitter        Parler Parler

Vaccine technical information:

● There are hundreds of Covid-19 vaccines under development, in nine broad technology categories. Several dozen of them are in clinical trials, and an early few are now in use. If you want to understand more about them, I highly recommend this in-depth Tweetorial by Florian Krammer

Tweet #1:
Tweet #138 (last tweet):
Unrolled thread, in several formats:
‣ (best, if you block ads)
    (or saved as pdf)

He also has some other, related, tweetstorms, here:

● The Milken Institute has two similar Covid-19 vaccine tracker web sites:
‣ (This site is just about vaccines.)
‣ (This site also has information about non-vaccine treatments being developed and/or tested.)

● Here's a very easy to understand educational “Tweetstorm” about the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna; sorry about the gratuitous foul language:
Tweet #1:
Tweet #37 (last tweet):
Unrolled thread, in several formats:

● RNA biologist Rob Swanda has created a series of excellent educational videos about Covid-19 vaccines, on his YouTube channel. Currently, there are eight videos averaging about 2.5 minutes each, in English, plus versions in several other languages. 

● Belgian biochemist Jan Boddaert has written some very educational Quora answers about Covid-19 and related topics. 

The Telegraph reports on efforts to develop a vaccine which will be invulnerable, or less vulnerable, to being rendered ineffective by virus mutations.

● There is, arguably, an ethical problem with some of the Covid-19 vaccines, because some of them were developed using fetal cells, from aborted babies. National Review has been on top of this issue. Here are two of their articles, reporting that the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines do not use fetal cells (except that both companies used the nearly fifty-year-old HEK 293 cell line for testing; it is very widely used, worldwide, for testing developmental drugs, without endangering patients):
But here's an article reporting that AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson unfortunately did use fetal cells more extensively during the development of their vaccines, albeit from cell lines which are several decades old. However, contrary to some internet rumors, fetal cells are not used for the production of those vaccines:
‣ Science Magazine had some more details in an article in June, 2020. 

● The CDC's Interim Public Health Recommendations for Fully Vaccinated People are imperfect.
1. They recommend that everyone continue to wear masks unless everyone in a gathering has been fully vaccinated. Actually, a gathering in which just ONE person, or in which people from just ONE household, lack immunity, but everyone ELSE is immune, should also be safe to meet without masks or other special precautions.
2. Someone who has fully recovered from Covid-19 at least one month earlier is probably about as safe from reinfection as is someone who was vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine (though it's not known how long the immunity will last). The CDC recommentations do not mention that fact.
3. The CDC says that you're considered fully vaccinated two weeks after the last jab for the two-dose mRNA vaccines (Moderna & Pfizer), which is about right. But they also say that you are considered fully vaccinated two weeks after the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which is wrong. Two weeks after the second jab, Pfizer & Moderna vaccinations are believed to be approximately 95% effective at preventing ANY Covid-19 infection (and nearly 100% effective at preventing the most serious Covid-19 illness). But at only two weeks after the Johnson & Johnson jab, its effectiveness at preventing moderate to severe disease is only around 60%, and its effectiveness at preventing mild but communicable disease is probably even less. Yet the CDC is pretending that it's as effective as Moderna & Pfizer. That's clearly wrong. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has some advantages, but it takes much longer than two weeks for it to reach maximum effectiveness, and even then the protection is not as complete as the protection from the two-dose mRNA vaccines.

WND: Scott Atlas is wrong, Sept. 2, 2020

Scott Atlas could not have been more wrong in his advice to America's leaders.
by Dave Burton 

Worldometers Covid-19 site

Worldometers tracks Covid-19 case and fatality counts, globally and by country

Vaccine rollout progress at OurWorldInData

The vaccination campaign (with Pfizer & Moderna vaccines) began in the U.S. December 20, 2020. OurWorldInData graphs the progress. Compare that graph to the Worldometers graph of Covid-19 case counts, to see the effect. 

CDC Covid Data Tracker

The CDC tracks many Covid-related statistics on their Covid Data Tracker site. 

Covid-19 phylogeny

Nextstrain tracks Covid-19 strains on their “genomic epidemiology” web page. Hover your mouse cursor over the graphic for information about the particular mutations which characterize each strain. 

Deseret News: The dysfunctional American regulatory state

COVID-19 has shown us how dysfunctional the American regulatory state can be
by Sally Pipes   (archived here

LOS: Understanding “comorbidities”

COVID comorbidities are not analogous to car crashes: Debunking the 6% mortality claim 

StatNews: “Long Covid” puzzles doctors

Some Covid-19 patients remain sick for many months, and nobody knows why. In some cases, Covid-19 damages lungs, heart and/or brain. In others, the disease, itself, lingers. Explanations for long Covid remain elusive. 

The high prevelance of lingering symptoms

The Jerusalem Post reports that nearly half of people who have mild or moderate Covid-19 nevertheless still have symptoms six months later. Other studies find that Covid-19 can cause harmful “rogue” immmune system responses (autoimmune disorders), as well as lasting lung damage, and damage to both the brain and the heart

Estimated relative risks of various common activities

Here's some expert opinion about relative risks of catching/spreading Covid-19 through various activities. 

(Unfortunately, they left out a few important high-risk activities out, such as having a plumber or cleaning service in your home, or riding a train, subway or bus.)

Most Covid-19 cases were contracted from a person without symptoms

WaPo: People without symptoms spread virus in more than half of cases, CDC model finds

The tl;dr version is this: a CDC study estimates that more than half of Covid-19 cases were contracted from someone who was asymptomatic or presymptomatic. That's based on a computer model, but it is consistent with anecdotal evidence.

(That's why people without symptoms need to wear masks, and practice “social distancing,” unless they have some means of being certain that they are not infected... e.g., they've already been vaccinated, at least a month ago, and they have no symptoms.)

Beware of a widely circulated disinformation video by Dr. Simone Gold

She has created a small organization she calls “America's Frontline Doctors.” I analyzed her startling claims, in depth, and found that her talk is full of misinformation and terrible advice.

Here's my critique of her video.

Covid-19 far more deadly than people like Simone Gold claim

Scammers & crackpots like Simone Gold, Jon Rappoport, Joe Mercola, Sherri Tenpenny, Andrew Wakefield, Alex Jones, and Robert Kennedy Jr., have been spreading a wide variety of lies to dissuade people from getting life-saving Covid-19 vaccinations. One of those lies is the claim that the overall 2020 U.S. death rate was down, compared to 2018 and 2019. Actually, the overall death rate was dramatically higher in 2020.

Another lie is the claim that the vaccines are killing large numbers of people. Actually, although there have been a handful of deaths which might have been caused by vaccinations, getting vaccinated is provably at least 1000 times safer than getting the Covid-19 illness. Eventually, you will probably acquire SARS-Cov-2 antibodies, one way or another. The question is whether you'll get them from the disease, which has about a 1% infection fatality rate, and a high rate of lasting, severe side-effects, or from vaccination, which is at least 1000× safer.

Another hoax survival rate stats of those lies is the claim that “the CDC” says that Covid-19 “survival rates” are extremely high except for those over the age of seventy: 99.997% for those under age 20, and 99.98% for those aged 20-49. In fact, the CDC has never said any such thing, and the numbers are provably nonsense. I found the source of that lie: it was invented by Mr. Steve Stewart, of Tallahassee, FL, who runs “a commercial marketing and printing business.”

The vaccines protect against infection, not just against symptomatic illness

Another lie sometimes repeated by scammers & crackpots like Simone Gold et al is that the vaccines only prevent symptomatic illness, not the spread of the disease. That's nonsense: although the vaccine trials mainly tested for prevention of symptomatic illness, we have conclusive proof that they prevent most infections, entirely. 

The Facts about the COVID Vaccines and Fetal Cell Lines

National Review: For pro-life Americans, the scientific facts behind the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines production should guide their decisions, By Isaac Schorr, December 20, 2020.

See also the bullet point, above. 

Investigational Covid-19 treatments

• Merck has a new antiviral drug in trials called molnupiravir, which they say looks very promising.

• “Inhaled budesonide (Pulmicort), a steroid generally used to treat asthma, dramatically reduced the need for hospitalization in COVID-19 patients within a week of symptom onset, a small randomized trial in the U.K. found.” (apparently confirming an earlier study).

Detailed information from Prof. Paul Marik, MD, of Eastern Virginia Medical School and the Frontline COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC), on the “MATH+” and “I-MASK+” treatment protocols, incorporating steroids and/or ivermectin, and several other therapeutics. (Note that, despite the similarity of names, the FLCCC is a legitimate, respected organization, nothing at all like Simone Gold's deceptively-named “America's Frontline Doctors” crackpot anti-vaxer group.)

fluvoxamine might be helpful, too.

• A nitric oxide nasal spray called SaNOtize also shows promise. Lucia has a discussion of it.

• Steve Kirsch's article on other investigational Covid-19 treatments is the most comprehensive I've seen:

What the Coronavirus Variants Mean for the End of the Pandemic

This is a very educational article by Dhruv Khullar, in The New Yorker, March 7, 2021