date: Mon Nov 8 12:29:56 2004 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: FW: Hurricanes and Global Warming for IPCC to: "Klein Tank, Albert" , "Kevin Trenberth \(E-mail\)" Albert, I take much the same view as you. Kevin was in touch with me about this press briefing a week ago and we're considering a box on tropical storms. I'm trying to get a name from JMA and have been in contact with a couple of Japanese I know. One of these is in India this week as there is an IPCC Bureau meeting there. So, maybe the issue will get discussed there. In the meantime, best to continue with your section and leave this section out if you don't receive anything. We can put a note in that something will be there in the next draft, or Kevin or I will write something - it depends on whether and what we get from Japan. There are 2 sides to the story and we're only getting one at the moment. I'll await Kevin and maybe email him to ask him to still write his bit. Cheers Phil At 11:51 08/11/2004, Klein Tank, Albert wrote: Dear Phil and Kevin, As you have seen from his message (below) there is a problem with the contribution of Chris Landsea to the tropical cyclones section of our chapter. I've been in contact with him a couple of times over the past few weeks and all information I got so far was that he encountered a problem without saying what it actually was. Now that his explanation arived, my response would be fairly simple. Personally, I don't pay too much attention to what individual scientists do state in the media or what the media tells they have stated. I am convinced that as long as these statements are not consensus views in the research community they will not appear in the text of the IPCC report. Only the best possible information based on peer reviewed literature will be included. I could tell him this, but it is probably better that the CLA's or others addressed in his message respond to him directly. Cheers, Albert. -----Original Message----- From: Christopher Landsea [[1]mailto:Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov] Sent: vrijdag 5 november 2004 23:41 To: Susan.Solomon@noaa.gov; Frank.Marks@noaa.gov; Rick.Rosen@noaa.gov; Peter.Ortner@noaa.gov; Thomas.C.Peterson@noaa.gov; Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov; Klein Tank, Albert; dhko@hko.gov.hk; rahim_f@irimet.net; lindam@ucar.edu; pachauri@teri.res.in; p.jones@uea.ac.uk; killeen@ucar.edu; B.J.Hoskins@reading.ac.uk; bubujallow@hotmail.com Cc: trenbert@cgd.ucar.edu Subject: Hurricanes and Global Warming for IPCC Dear Drs. R. Pachauri, S. Solomon, P. Jones, A. Klein-Tank, CY Lam, F. Rahimzadeh, B. Hoskins, B. Jallow, T. Karl, T. Peterson, L. Mearns, R. Rosen, T. Killeen, F. Marks, and P. Ortner (with a cc to K. Trenberth), Recently Dr. Kevin Trenberth participated in a press conference on the topic "Experts to warn global warming likely to continue spurring more outbreaks of intense hurricane activity" along with Drs. Paul Epstein, James McCarthy and Matthias Weber. The result of this media event was widespread coverage like the following from Reuters: Global Warming Effects Faster Than Feared - Experts Thu Oct 21, 3:32 PM ET Science - Reuters By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent [2]http://story.news.yahoo.com/news? tmpl=story&cid=585&e=1&u=/nm/20041021/sc_nm/environment_global_dc WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Recent storms, droughts and heat waves are probably being caused by global warming, which means the effects of climate change are coming faster than anyone had feared, climate experts said on Thursday. The four hurricanes that bashed Florida and the Caribbean within a five-week period over the summer, intense storms over the western Pacific, heat waves that killed tens of thousands of Europeans last year and a continued drought across the U.S. southwest are only the beginning, the experts said. Listening to the whole press conference, available at - [3]http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge/media.html - the media coverage seems to accurately reflect what actually was said by Dr. Trenberth and the panel at this event. Similar statements by Dr. Trenberth are also on the record in his September 24th, 2004 interview with the Living on Earth media program - [4]http://www.loe.org/index.htm. In summary, he is attributing an increase in this year's Atlantic and NW Pacific tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic warming as a result of enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gases. My concerns are: Where is the science, the refereed publications, that substantiate these pronouncements? What studies are being alluded to that have shown a connection between observed warming trends on the earth and long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity? As far as I know there are none. I have been a Contributing Author for both the IPCC in 1995 and 2000, when I wrote the sections on observed changes in tropical cyclones around the world. I also dutifully have provided reviews for both IPCC editions on the observed variability and projection chapters. I was asked just three weeks ago by Dr. Trenberth as Lead Author of the Observations chapter to again provide a writeup on observed Atlantic hurricane activity for the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. I agreed to do so, as I realize that this is an important task and one that I may be able to provide a meaningful contribution toward. However, these press events greatly concern me. The Lead Author of the Observations chapter seems to have already come to the conclusion that global warming has altered hurricane activity and has publicly stated so. This does not reflect the consensus within the hurricane research community. I am concerned that it may not be possible for the IPCC process to proceed objectively at this point, with regards to hurricane activity. Thus I would like assurance that what will be included in the IPCC report will reflect the best available information and the consensus within the scientific community most expert on the specific topic. There are many legitimate scientific reasons to be concerned with global warming, but the evidence just is not there with hurricanes no matter how much it is trumped up for the media and the public. Proceeding with such announcements outside the proper IPCC process taints the credibility of climate change science and will in the longer term diminish our influence over public policy. The sad thing about this is that it did not have to turn out this way. I did try to caution both Dr. Trenberth and Dr. Linda Mearns before the media event (email included below) and provided a summary of the consensus within the hurricane research community. Dr. Mearns decided not to participate in the panel perhaps as a result of my email correspondence. I sincerely wish Dr. Trenberth had made the same decision. Dr. Trenberth wrote back to me that he hoped that this press conference would not "go out of control". I would suggest that it was out of control the minute that he and his fellow panel members decided to forego the peer review scientific process and abuse science in pursuit of a political agenda. Sincerely, Chris Landsea NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division ********************************************************************** Chris Landsea NOAA AOML/Hurricane Research Division Voice: (305) 361-4357 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway Fax: (305) 361-4402 Miami, Florida 33149 Internet: Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov [5]http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea_bio.html ********************************************************************** 21 October 2004 Email to Kevin Trenberth -------------------------------------------- Subject: Today's news conference? Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 11:33:51 -0400 From: CHRIS LANDSEA To: trenbert@cgd.ucar.edu, lindam@ucar.edu Dear Linda and Kevin, I heard that you all are participating in a news conference entitled "EXPERTS TO WARN GLOBAL WARMING LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPURRING MORE OUTBREAKS OF INTENSE HURRICANE ACTIVITY". This is news to me and i am wondering what has led you all to this big conclusion. Are you all announcing a new published paper in the field? (Unless there is a publication that i'm not aware of, i do not believe that i've seen a publication in the field of hurricane climate variability/ change from either of you or your fellow panel members on this topic.) If not, i'm wondering how you all are coming to this conclusion and what work you are citing? If it's helpful, here's my take on hurricanes and global warming (a little synopsis that i helped put together recently). I'd be happy to provide references to support all of this. Hurricanes and Global Warming -------------------------------- -There are no known scientific studies that show a conclusive physical link between global warming and observed hurricane frequency and intensity. Whatever suggested changes in hurricane activity that might result from global warming in the future are quite small in comparison to the large natural variability of hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones. For example, the latest GFDL global warming study suggested about a 5% increase in the winds of hurricanes 80 years in the future. This contrasts with the more than doubling that occur now in numbers of major hurricanes between active and quiet decades in the Atlantic basin. -If global warming is influencing hurricane activity, then we should be seeing a global change in the number and strength of these storms. Yet there is no evidence of a global increase in the strength and frequency of hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones over the past several years. -Beginning in 1995, there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. However, this increase is very likely a manifestation of a natural multi-decadal cycle of Atlantic hurricane activity that has been occurring likely for the last few hundred years. For example, relatively few Atlantic major hurricanes were observed in the 70s, 80s and early 90s, but there was considerable activity during the 40s, 50s and early 60s. Also, the period from 1944 to 1950 was particularly infamous for Florida - with 11 hurricanes hitting the state during those years. -Total U.S. direct damages from Atlantic hurricanes this year will be on the order of $30 billion, making it about equal to the most damaging year on record - 1992 with the landfall of Hurricane Andrew. However, such increased destruction from hurricanes is to be expected because of the massive development and population increases along the U.S. coastline and in countries throughout the Caribbean and Central America. There is no need to invoke global warming to understand both the 10 years of active hurricane seasons and the destruction that occurred both in Florida and in Haiti this season. The former is due to natural cycles driven by the Atlantic Ocean and the latter is due to societal changes, not due to global warming. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I'm all for scientific debate about important issues like how might global warming impact hurricane activity. (I've had some wonderful discussions over the last few years with Tom Knutson about his insightful work.) However, i am concerned that this news conference may stray from science into the realm of hyperbole. Please don't let that happen. Sincerely, chris -------------------------------------------------------------- Zie ook/see also: [6]http://www.knmi.nl/maildisclaimer.html Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------