From: Keith Briffa To: Edward Cook Subject: Re: Review- confidential REALLY URGENT Date: Wed Jun 4 16:02:09 2003 Hi Big Boy You just caught me as I was about to slope off after a brutal day - we spent all day yesterday interviewing for a job we have and then someone accepted it - and now Janice tells us we don't have the money to pay at therate the job was advertised for! This attack sounds like the last straw- from what you say it is a waste of time my looking at it but send a copy anyway. The file you have is an old version of a reconstruction output for one Tornetrask reconstruction - if it was labelled something like 990 it is the original Nature one , but 997 (i Think//1) would make it the Climate Dynamics one . Trouble is I will have to go back and find out which . Please ring if I haven't my tomorrow to remind me - and concentrate on the review for now. I will also talk about an extended nearby data set (temp) that might allow a longer more rigorous validation . Kirsten has just done Math GCSE and Amy her driving test so I have to go and picjk them up. I will looke at the file and be ready with an answer by midday my time. the best and a beer til then Keith At 09:50 AM 6/4/03 -0400, you wrote: Hi Keith, Okay, today. Promise! Now something to ask from you. Actually somewhat important too. I got a paper to review (submitted to the Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Sciences), written by a Korean guy and someone from Berkeley, that claims that the method of reconstruction that we use in dendroclimatology (reverse regression) is wrong, biased, lousy, horrible, etc. They use your Tornetrask recon as the main whipping boy. I have a file that you gave me in 1993 that comes from your 1992 paper. Below is part of that file. Is this the right one? Also, is it possible to resurrect the column headings? I would like to play with it in an effort to refute their claims. If published as is, this paper could really do some damage. It is also an ugly paper to review because it is rather mathematical, with a lot of Box-Jenkins stuff in it. It won't be easy to dismiss out of hand as the math appears to be correct theoretically, but it suffers from the classic problem of pointing out theoretical deficiencies, without showing that their improved inverse regression method is actually better in a practical sense. So they do lots of monte carlo stuff that shows the superiority of their method and the deficiencies of our way of doing things, but NEVER actually show how their method would change the Tornetrask reconstruction from what you produced. Your assistance here is greatly appreciated. Otherwise, I will let Tornetrask sink into the melting permafrost of northern Sweden (just kidding of course). Cheers, Ed TORNETRASK RECONSTRUCTION 500 1.24 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.81 0.31 501 0.38 -9.99 0.00 0.25 0.81 0.39 502 0.51 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.81 0.25 503 0.14 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.81 0.34 504 -1.32 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.81 0.34 505 -0.65 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.81 0.25 506 -0.19 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.81 0.24 507 0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.81 0.33 508 0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.81 0.31 509 0.93 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.81 0.27 510 0.02 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.81 0.29 511 -1.62 -9.99 0.00 0.20 0.81 0.35 512 -0.01 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.81 0.28 513 1.00 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.81 0.27 514 0.10 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.81 0.29 515 -0.96 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.81 0.26 516 -0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.81 0.27 517 0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.85 0.25 518 0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.26 519 0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.26 520 -0.19 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.26 521 -0.84 -9.99 0.00 0.23 0.85 0.38 522 -0.83 -9.99 0.00 0.23 0.85 0.37 523 0.05 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.85 0.24 524 -0.27 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.85 0.25 525 0.14 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.85 0.24 526 0.01 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.25 527 -0.31 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.85 0.28 528 0.46 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.85 0.25 529 0.01 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.85 0.25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1848 0.10 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.24 1849 -0.39 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.28 1850 0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.29 1851 0.04 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.27 1.92 0.96 -1.98 -1.24 -1.41 -0.35 1852 0.68 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 -2.82 0.59 1.66 1.95 2.12 0.70 1853 0.67 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.28 -2.23 0.24 2.27 1.64 -0.33 0.32 1854 1.13 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.27 0.21 1.57 0.89 2.47 2.11 1.45 1855 0.05 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.29 -0.74 -0.80 0.24 4.19 -0.16 0.55 1856 -1.41 -9.99 0.00 0.19 1.00 0.33 -0.48 -1.24 -1.37 -0.34 -2.55 -1.20 1857 -0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.19 1.00 0.32 -1.13 -0.78 -1.39 -0.23 2.44 -0.22 1858 0.81 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.28 -0.63 0.48 1.37 2.74 2.72 1.34 1859 -0.60 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.25 -1.28 0.73 1.04 0.10 0.16 0.15 1860 0.49 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 -0.41 -1.37 0.62 0.42 0.17 -0.11 1861 0.73 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 -1.19 -2.59 1.54 2.27 0.33 0.07 1862 -0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.06 1.00 0.22 -0.06 0.50 -1.16 -2.08 -1.95 -0.95 1863 0.03 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.00 -0.79 0.18 -1.72 -0.60 -0.39 1864 -0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.25 -0.49 -3.34 0.26 0.74 -2.40 -1.05 1865 -0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.22 0.10 0.14 -2.96 1.61 -1.31 -0.48 1866 -0.37 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 0.29 -1.99 0.67 -1.17 0.67 -0.31 1867 -1.03 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 -2.83 -5.37 -2.59 -0.62 -0.31 -2.34 1868 -0.28 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.29 -0.02 1.04 -0.36 1.72 2.78 1.03 1869 -0.84 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.25 1.21 -1.14 -1.40 0.53 -0.63 -0.29 1870 -0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 1.33 -0.70 -0.27 1.12 -0.36 0.22 1871 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 -2.34 -2.32 -2.34 1.12 -0.09 -1.19 1872 0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.25 0.80 0.57 1.16 1.32 -0.34 0.70 1873 0.52 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.28 -1.97 -2.50 0.82 1.38 0.12 -0.43 1874 -0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.25 0.25 -2.24 -1.15 0.15 -1.06 -0.81 1875 0.36 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.24 -1.96 0.36 0.00 0.87 -0.33 -0.21 1876 0.46 -0.15 0.61 0.12 1.00 0.25 -0.70 -3.06 1.93 0.74 0.34 -0.15 1877 -0.98 -1.74 0.76 0.14 1.00 0.28 -3.31 -2.70 -1.18 0.26 -1.76 -1.74 1878 -0.04 -0.19 0.15 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.02 -0.30 0.16 -1.71 -0.12 -0.19 1879 0.20 -0.41 0.62 0.10 1.00 0.25 -1.24 -0.19 -1.09 -0.64 1.09 -0.41 1880 -1.05 0.14 -1.19 0.17 1.00 0.31 0.17 -0.53 -0.70 -0.20 1.94 0.14 1881 -1.34 -1.88 0.54 0.17 1.00 0.30 -3.66 -2.02 -1.35 -1.07 -1.32 -1.88 1882 0.30 0.37 -0.08 0.16 1.00 0.30 -0.32 0.21 -0.36 0.56 1.78 0.37 1883 1.13 0.24 0.89 0.13 1.00 0.26 0.49 -0.08 0.99 0.52 -0.70 0.24 1884 0.00 -0.80 0.80 0.14 1.00 0.27 -0.80 -1.99 -1.15 0.32 -0.39 -0.80 1885 -1.26 -1.25 -0.01 0.14 1.00 0.28 -0.29 -2.26 -2.34 0.42 -1.76 -1.25 1886 -0.24 0.10 -0.34 0.15 1.00 0.28 0.69 -0.55 -0.01 0.13 0.24 0.10 1887 -0.83 -0.40 -0.43 0.14 1.00 0.27 -0.10 0.23 -1.01 -0.12 -1.02 -0.40 1888 -0.79 -1.69 0.90 0.12 1.00 0.26 -2.95 -1.85 -1.37 -1.05 -1.25 -1.69 1889 0.28 0.71 -0.43 0.08 1.00 0.23 -0.46 2.98 2.28 -0.40 -0.84 0.71 1890 0.47 0.22 0.25 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.06 2.04 -0.58 -1.18 -0.26 0.22 1891 -0.55 -0.49 -0.06 0.16 1.00 0.30 -0.43 -0.38 -1.74 1.24 -1.12 -0.49 1892 -1.58 -1.46 -0.12 0.16 1.00 0.29 -0.95 -1.55 -2.20 -1.24 -1.36 -1.46 1893 -0.61 -0.60 -0.01 0.10 1.00 0.24 -0.46 -1.17 -0.48 -0.07 -0.80 -0.60 1894 0.53 0.79 -0.26 0.09 1.00 0.24 2.61 0.07 0.50 1.18 -0.40 0.79 1895 0.68 0.38 0.30 0.09 1.00 0.24 -0.15 2.19 0.78 -0.66 -0.24 0.38 1896 0.06 0.47 -0.41 0.11 1.00 0.25 -0.04 -0.30 1.40 2.02 -0.73 0.47 1897 0.71 1.01 -0.30 0.13 1.00 0.27 0.90 2.20 -0.20 1.10 1.05 1.01 1898 0.10 -0.61 0.71 0.12 1.00 0.25 -1.06 -0.20 -0.16 -1.03 -0.60 -0.61 1899 -1.36 -0.84 -0.53 0.17 1.00 0.31 -0.98 -1.95 -1.85 2.38 -1.79 -0.84 1900 -0.38 -0.89 0.51 0.18 1.00 0.31 -1.31 -2.02 -0.02 -1.11 -0.01 -0.89 1901 0.85 1.32 -0.47 0.17 1.00 0.30 0.76 0.56 1.05 3.24 1.00 1.32 1902 -1.59 -2.44 0.85 0.19 1.00 0.33 -2.71 -2.33 -2.44 -2.52 -2.22 -2.44 1903 -1.27 -0.42 -0.85 0.20 1.00 0.33 0.36 0.14 -0.37 -1.02 -1.22 -0.42 1904 -1.52 -1.11 -0.42 0.15 1.00 0.29 0.77 -1.61 -1.73 -1.64 -1.32 -1.11 1905 -0.45 -0.06 -0.39 0.08 1.00 0.23 -1.29 0.69 1.41 0.05 -1.16 -0.06 1906 -0.44 0.55 -0.98 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.44 1.74 0.34 0.69 -1.47 0.55 1907 -0.40 -1.10 0.69 0.07 1.00 0.23 0.24 -2.05 -0.31 -0.70 -2.67 -1.10 1908 -0.15 -0.55 0.41 0.11 1.00 0.25 0.36 -1.22 -1.31 -0.22 -0.38 -0.55 1909 -0.77 -1.71 0.94 0.09 1.00 0.24 -2.54 -3.21 -1.26 -0.51 -1.03 -1.71 1910 -0.16 0.00 -0.16 0.09 1.00 0.24 1.18 0.91 -0.19 -0.60 -1.32 0.00 1911 -0.38 0.02 -0.40 0.09 1.00 0.24 -0.37 1.25 -1.34 -0.55 1.12 0.02 1912 0.06 -0.23 0.29 0.06 1.00 0.22 -1.32 -0.99 0.16 0.79 0.20 -0.23 1913 0.08 0.29 -0.21 0.07 1.00 0.22 1.68 0.02 -1.15 0.99 -0.07 0.29 1914 0.09 0.84 -0.75 0.07 1.00 0.22 1.51 -0.37 0.47 3.50 -0.93 0.84 1915 0.11 -0.91 1.01 0.06 1.00 0.22 -0.20 -1.59 -2.40 0.61 -0.95 -0.91 1916 -0.35 -0.51 0.16 0.13 1.00 0.26 0.46 -1.26 -1.37 1.65 -2.04 -0.51 1917 0.18 -0.02 0.20 0.11 1.00 0.25 -1.95 -1.60 1.89 -0.78 2.35 -0.02 1918 0.71 -0.39 1.10 0.10 1.00 0.24 1.11 -0.49 -1.73 0.68 -1.52 -0.39 1919 -0.09 0.12 -0.21 0.07 1.00 0.22 -0.88 1.29 0.09 1.87 -1.79 0.12 1920 0.33 0.85 -0.52 0.07 1.00 0.22 2.05 2.16 -0.36 0.93 -0.51 0.85 1921 0.29 0.75 -0.46 0.10 1.00 0.24 3.97 2.43 -0.68 -1.35 -0.62 0.75 1922 0.66 -0.23 0.89 0.12 1.00 0.26 -0.60 0.22 0.00 0.12 -0.88 -0.23 1923 -0.66 -1.84 1.19 0.12 1.00 0.26 -1.53 -1.74 -3.76 0.02 -2.20 -1.84 1924 0.49 -0.46 0.95 0.08 1.00 0.23 -1.60 -0.68 -1.93 0.64 1.25 -0.46 1925 0.30 1.10 -0.80 0.12 1.00 0.26 1.66 0.70 -0.63 3.49 0.30 1.10 1926 0.47 0.06 0.41 0.10 1.00 0.24 -0.06 -0.51 0.02 0.75 0.12 0.06 1927 0.23 0.10 0.14 0.11 1.00 0.25 -0.58 -2.17 -1.54 3.18 1.60 0.10 1928 -0.82 -1.21 0.39 0.11 1.00 0.25 0.42 -0.20 -3.05 -2.14 -1.09 -1.21 1929 0.00 -1.25 1.26 0.15 1.00 0.28 -3.24 0.57 -1.51 -1.02 -1.06 -1.25 1930 1.00 1.42 -0.42 0.16 1.00 0.29 1.78 1.81 0.59 1.58 1.34 1.42 1931 -0.67 -0.21 -0.46 0.08 1.00 0.23 -0.29 1.18 -2.95 1.21 -0.20 -0.21 1932 -0.32 0.27 -0.59 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.54 0.03 -1.68 1.74 0.74 0.27 1933 0.65 0.36 0.29 0.12 1.00 0.26 -0.33 -0.86 1.64 1.77 -0.43 0.36 1934 0.56 0.98 -0.42 0.12 1.00 0.26 0.37 1.88 -0.48 1.88 1.27 0.98 1935 -0.56 -0.37 -0.20 0.09 1.00 0.24 0.30 -1.94 0.11 -0.05 -0.25 -0.37 1936 -0.09 1.48 -1.57 0.19 1.00 0.33 0.03 1.84 2.96 1.86 0.71 1.48 1937 1.77 2.39 -0.62 0.19 1.00 0.32 2.82 2.55 1.32 2.26 3.01 2.39 1938 0.58 0.91 -0.33 0.09 1.00 0.24 0.59 -0.07 -0.60 2.49 2.14 0.91 1939 0.31 0.71 -0.40 0.08 1.00 0.23 -0.22 -0.15 0.04 0.99 2.88 0.71 1940 0.20 0.42 -0.22 0.15 1.00 0.28 -0.95 2.26 0.72 0.67 -0.60 0.42 1941 -0.03 -0.20 0.17 0.14 1.00 0.28 -2.00 -1.34 -1.20 3.70 -0.17 -0.20 1942 0.11 -0.50 0.61 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.14 -1.04 -1.47 -0.32 0.20 -0.50 1943 0.36 0.69 -0.33 0.07 1.00 0.22 1.55 0.88 0.99 0.69 -0.64 0.69 1944 0.12 -0.50 0.62 0.10 1.00 0.24 -1.67 -1.25 -1.58 1.18 0.83 -0.50 1945 0.57 0.71 -0.14 0.10 1.00 0.25 1.21 -0.53 -0.86 1.81 1.91 0.71 1946 0.48 0.64 -0.16 0.09 1.00 0.24 1.17 0.28 -0.18 1.62 0.31 0.64 1947 0.69 1.20 -0.51 0.10 1.00 0.24 0.18 1.48 1.69 1.43 1.20 1.20 1948 0.00 0.67 -0.67 0.08 1.00 0.23 2.10 1.66 0.03 0.74 -1.18 0.67 1949 -0.21 0.11 -0.32 0.14 1.00 0.27 1.26 1.76 -1.34 -0.14 -1.01 0.11 1950 0.83 0.73 0.09 0.10 1.00 0.24 2.24 0.91 -0.14 -0.52 1.18 0.73 1951 -0.13 -0.34 0.21 0.07 1.00 0.22 0.78 -1.83 -1.25 -1.23 1.84 -0.34 1952 -0.13 -0.38 0.25 0.12 1.00 0.26 1.78 -0.91 -1.17 -0.26 -1.34 -0.38 1953 0.95 1.11 -0.16 0.11 1.00 0.25 1.80 0.21 3.01 0.37 0.16 1.11 1954 0.12 0.32 -0.20 0.10 1.00 0.24 -0.60 2.11 -0.57 0.70 -0.05 0.32 1955 0.02 -0.76 0.77 0.09 1.00 0.24 -2.65 -2.42 -2.22 1.42 2.09 -0.76 1956 -0.26 -0.94 0.68 0.07 1.00 0.22 -2.32 0.39 0.12 -0.73 -2.15 -0.94 1957 -0.15 -0.31 0.16 0.07 1.00 0.22 -0.09 -0.53 -2.06 1.32 -0.19 -0.31 1958 -0.08 -0.90 0.82 0.09 1.00 0.24 -1.29 -1.07 -1.05 -0.77 -0.31 -0.90 1959 0.83 0.98 -0.16 0.15 1.00 0.28 1.03 0.66 0.44 1.32 1.47 0.98 1960 1.13 1.02 0.11 0.13 1.00 0.27 0.63 1.88 0.92 1.39 0.29 1.02 1961 0.05 0.17 -0.11 0.10 1.00 0.25 -0.12 0.10 1.47 0.19 -0.81 0.17 1962 -0.45 -1.01 0.56 0.09 1.00 0.24 1.27 -0.52 -2.15 -1.65 -2.00 -1.01 1963 0.11 0.79 -0.68 0.18 1.00 0.31 0.43 3.15 -0.33 -0.07 0.77 0.79 1964 -0.21 -0.09 -0.13 0.15 1.00 0.28 0.64 1.02 -0.78 -0.42 -0.90 -0.09 1965 -0.82 -0.82 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 0.62 -1.64 -0.03 -1.74 -1.30 -0.82 1966 0.07 -0.13 0.20 0.06 1.00 0.22 -2.47 0.26 1.97 0.46 -0.87 -0.13 1967 -0.22 0.21 -0.44 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.69 0.29 -0.80 0.13 0.75 0.21 1968 -0.57 0.10 -0.67 0.13 1.00 0.27 1.18 -1.20 1.37 -1.07 0.22 0.10 1969 0.55 0.54 0.01 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.21 -0.61 0.90 0.37 1.82 0.54 1970 0.37 0.40 -0.04 0.10 1.00 0.24 -1.25 0.51 2.27 0.05 0.44 0.40 1971 -0.31 -0.12 -0.19 0.07 1.00 0.22 -0.71 0.81 -0.64 0.03 -0.07 -0.12 1972 0.25 1.18 -0.94 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.18 0.44 1.62 3.00 0.68 1.18 1973 0.30 0.85 -0.55 0.10 0.99 0.25 -0.02 0.76 1.31 2.85 -0.66 0.85 1974 0.07 0.12 -0.05 0.11 0.99 0.25 0.86 -0.41 0.62 -0.30 -0.18 0.12 1975 -0.49 0.51 -1.00 0.08 0.99 0.23 0.45 1.72 -1.09 0.62 0.84 0.51 1976 0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.22 -0.28 1.72 -1.36 -0.23 0.05 -0.02 1977 -0.33 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.23 -1.05 -0.01 -0.50 -0.90 -0.65 -0.62 1978 -0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.96 0.23 -0.98 0.92 0.14 -0.48 -1.07 -0.29 1979 0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.95 0.26 -0.73 0.75 1.02 -0.83 0.07 0.06 1980 0.93 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.95 0.26 1.42 -0.37 1.23 1.02 -0.36 0.59 I am really sorry but I have to nag about that review - Confidentially I now need a hard and if required extensive case for rejecting - to support Dave Stahle's and really as soon as you can. Please Keith At 08:00 AM 5/28/03 -0400, you wrote: Hi Keith, Okay, here is a zipped archive containing Jan's ring-width measurement series. The directory names are: random all slope flat "All" contains files with "all" series; "slope" has those series Jan reckoned had curvilinear growth trends; "flat" has those series with linear growth trends; "random" are those series that Jan chose not to use. Note that I had to pull out the Mongolia data set. I would love to give you it, but Gordon would go nuts if he found out. I don't know any way around this problem. The file names are: 01ath Athabasca 02bor Boreal 03cam Camphill 04que Quebec 05upp Upper Wright 06got Gotland 07jae Jaemtland 08lau Lauenen (site not used in paper) 09tir Tirol 10tor Tornestrask 11man Mangazeja 13pol Polar Urals 14tay Taymir 15zha Zhaschiviersk I can't put my hands on the derived RCS indices for these sites just now, but I can find them if you want them. This at least gives you the basic data and how it was partitioned by Jan. I did not participate in this stage of the analysis, so any questions about it should be directed to Jan. Cheers, Ed -- ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ================================== -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ================================== -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa[3]/ References 1. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 2. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 3. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/