date: Mon Mar 15 16:01:14 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Global Temperature
to: Jorge Sánchez Sesma <jsanchez@tlaloc.imta.mx>

    Dear Jorge,
        Happy for you to use me in an additional attempt tp get some Mexican support
    to come to CRU next year.  What exactly do you need?  Send me an example of
    what you want?  Life is very busy here at the moment as I'll be away for several
    meetings over the next 6 weeks and I must prepare some material for most of them.
        GKSS is just one model and it is a model, so there is no need for it to be correct.
    I am also aware that Ed Cook is revising the ECS curve in a paper he's submitting
    to Quaternary Science Reviews.
        Remember that if ECS (and GKSS) are correct then the climate is more sensitive
    to external forcing (the factors that cause past changes/variability). If the climate is
    more sensitive then the likely changes in the future will be greater. The curves that
    we've produced here (and also Mike Mann's) suggest a climate sensitivity of about
    2.5 deg C for a CO2 doubling. Getting volcanic forcing right in the past (along with
   solar)
    are crucial in any study.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 12:22 12/03/2004 -0600, you wrote:

     Dear Dr. Jones:
     I am very happy because I went to a Workshop in Kona Hawaii (with support
     of NASA-CRCES after to gain a contest with a review paper about global
     temperature reconstructions, it was a different version of the paper that
     you have read). There I met with Dr. Michael Mann. Mann was very kind with
     me, however when he did know my work he changed his attitude. I met there
     also Dr. Hans von Starch who presented a global temperature reconstructions
     with a AOCGCM with natural and anthropogenic forcings. His results agree
     more or less with ECS, and my results. i am in contact with the GKSS group
     in order to compare and share information.
     However, the key point of my studies, as you have pointed out, is to
     justify that the background Ice Acidity (without volcanic activity) from
     polar caps could be considered as a proxy. I have contacted Dr. Hammer and
     Dr. Crowley to have information and advice.
     In order continue this kind of studies I would like to propose you again
     (as we have tried last year) to ask support the the AMC (Mexican Academy of
     Sciences) to support a visit to CRU-UEA next year to continue my work, with
     your help and advice, about global temperature for the Holocene. I will
     need only an official invitation for my visit. It would be in March 2005
     for 3 or 4 weeks.
     Also, I am asking support to travel to Japan this year (this fall), however
     I would like to stop in England a week, in order to visit CRU-UEA and to
     continue our collaboration.
     I would like to know your oppinion,
     cheers,
     Jorge
     Jorge Sánchez-Sesma
     Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua
     Subcoordinación de Hidrometeorología
     Paseo Cuauhnahuac No. 8532, Col. Progreso
     Jiutepec, Morelos
     62550, México
     telefono:       52+(777)329-3600 x 879
     fax             52+(777)3293683
     email:          jsanchez@tlaloc.imta.mx
     pagina: [1]http://nimbus.imta.mx

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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