date: Mon, 5 Jul 1999 12:03:32 -0400 (EDT) from: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu subject: tNAO recon and data to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Mann tNAO reconstruction. REFERENCE Mann, M.E., Large-scale climate variability and connections with the middle east during the past few centuries, Climatic Change, submitted, 1998. The calibrated quantity is a temperature-based NAO ("tNAO") determined from the optimal statistical relationship between observational gridded surface temperature data in North Atlantic and surrounding regions and the Jones cold-season mean NAO during the twentieth century. The same weighted combination of the Mann et al (1998) reconstructed gridpoint surface temperature anomaly data is used prior to the calibration interval to obtain an reconstruction of the "tNAO" index. The results of the screening calibration used to construct the tNAO index, and the calibration/verification information for the reconstructed tNAO index back to 1750 is discussed there. Quoting the manuscript, "The reconstructed tNAO index is compared with the actual tNAO index, and the SLP-based NAO both calibration and verification periods in Figure 8. The overall agreement is quite good, with $r^2=0.53$ between the instrumental Jones et al (1997) cold-season NAO and the tNAO during the 1902-1980 calibration period. While the calibrated and cross-validated fractions of variances in the reconstructed tNAO index are not excessively large measured relative to the atmospheric cold-season NAO index ($r^2=0.40$ and $r^2=0.29$), they are considerably more impressive ($r^2=0.75$ and $r^2=0.54$ respectively) measured relative to the instrumental tNAO index, which is the target index in this study." DATA: 1st column: annual mean tNAO reconstruction 2nd column: actual instrumental annual-mean tNAO index (1902-1993) 3rd column: actual annual-mean Jones NAO index (1854*-1993) ANNUAL tNAO RECON TNAO inst Jones (slp) NAO inst 1750 0.14176 0.00000 0.00000 1751 -0.55993 0.00000 0.00000 1752 0.29473 0.00000 0.00000 1753 0.58903 0.00000 0.00000 1754 -0.02610 0.00000 0.00000 1755 0.07675 0.00000 0.00000 1756 0.20059 0.00000 0.00000 1757 0.15407 0.00000 0.00000 1758 -0.17162 0.00000 0.00000 1759 0.34838 0.00000 0.00000 1760 0.12331 0.00000 0.00000 1761 1.14798 0.00000 0.00000 1762 0.38259 0.00000 0.00000 1763 0.35308 0.00000 0.00000 1764 0.89957 0.00000 0.00000 1765 0.33837 0.00000 0.00000 1766 0.66299 0.00000 0.00000 1767 -0.16222 0.00000 0.00000 1768 -0.35400 0.00000 0.00000 1769 0.13774 0.00000 0.00000 1770 -0.06498 0.00000 0.00000 1771 -0.29506 0.00000 0.00000 1772 -0.02758 0.00000 0.00000 1773 0.64106 0.00000 0.00000 1774 0.26168 0.00000 0.00000 1775 0.63726 0.00000 0.00000 1776 0.51277 0.00000 0.00000 1777 -0.12872 0.00000 0.00000 1778 0.28142 0.00000 0.00000 1779 1.40375 0.00000 0.00000 1780 0.52074 0.00000 0.00000 1781 0.74622 0.00000 0.00000 1782 0.11659 0.00000 0.00000 1783 0.26162 0.00000 0.00000 1784 -0.68748 0.00000 0.00000 1785 -0.71176 0.00000 0.00000 1786 -0.31084 0.00000 0.00000 1787 0.41823 0.00000 0.00000 1788 -0.14299 0.00000 0.00000 1789 0.22276 0.00000 0.00000 1790 0.73534 0.00000 0.00000 1791 0.74327 0.00000 0.00000 1792 -0.11956 0.00000 0.00000 1793 0.60050 0.00000 0.00000 1794 0.57357 0.00000 0.00000 1795 -0.32694 0.00000 0.00000 1796 0.39667 0.00000 0.00000 1797 1.08438 0.00000 0.00000 1798 0.79545 0.00000 0.00000 1799 -0.06745 0.00000 0.00000 1800 0.25792 0.00000 0.00000 1801 0.33682 0.00000 0.00000 1802 0.58066 0.00000 0.00000 1803 0.13816 0.00000 0.00000 1804 -0.04729 0.00000 0.00000 1805 -0.69224 0.00000 0.00000 1806 0.62541 0.00000 0.00000 1807 0.69934 0.00000 0.00000 1808 -0.23674 0.00000 0.00000 1809 -0.24335 0.00000 0.00000 1810 -0.04371 0.00000 0.00000 1811 0.89010 0.00000 0.00000 1812 -0.66221 0.00000 0.00000 1813 0.07365 0.00000 0.00000 1814 -0.43740 0.00000 0.00000 1815 0.28897 0.00000 0.00000 1816 -0.28855 0.00000 0.00000 1817 0.56590 0.00000 0.00000 1818 1.02243 0.00000 0.00000 1819 0.99791 0.00000 0.00000 1820 0.33153 0.00000 0.00000 1821 0.14325 0.00000 0.00000 1822 1.25788 0.00000 0.00000 1823 0.13527 0.00000 0.00000 1824 0.70008 0.00000 0.00000 1825 0.76263 0.00000 0.00000 1826 0.38691 0.00000 0.00000 1827 0.30104 0.00000 0.00000 1828 -0.06241 0.00000 0.00000 1829 -1.08817 0.00000 0.00000 1830 -0.23391 0.00000 0.00000 1831 0.19402 0.00000 0.00000 1832 0.16451 0.00000 0.00000 1833 -0.02167 0.00000 0.00000 1834 0.38684 0.00000 0.00000 1835 -0.23131 0.00000 0.00000 1836 -0.23939 0.00000 0.00000 1837 -0.34855 0.00000 0.00000 1838 -0.74261 0.00000 0.00000 1839 -0.25189 0.00000 0.00000 1840 -0.52431 0.00000 0.00000 1841 0.04475 0.00000 0.00000 1842 0.33180 0.00000 0.00000 1843 0.13988 0.00000 0.00000 1844 -0.60117 0.00000 0.00000 1845 -0.07912 0.00000 0.00000 1846 0.54966 0.00000 0.00000 1847 0.07647 0.00000 0.00000 1848 0.09936 0.00000 0.00000 1849 -0.20062 0.00000 0.00000 1850 -0.10334 0.00000 0.00000 1851 0.18795 0.00000 0.00000 1852 0.04230 0.00000 0.00000 1853 -0.25791 0.00000 0.00000 1854 0.39734 0.00000 0.02478 1855 -0.81398 0.00000 -1.09952 1856 -0.64572 0.00000 -1.72292 1857 0.13339 0.00000 -0.11442 1858 0.13267 0.00000 0.11148 1859 0.67379 0.00000 0.57318 1860 -0.56479 0.00000 -0.32022 1861 0.33512 0.00000 -0.52652 1862 -0.02281 0.00000 -1.28402 1863 0.87780 0.00000 1.43248 1864 -0.19698 0.00000 0.17118 1865 -0.01557 0.00000 -1.45412 1866 0.47039 0.00000 -0.12852 1867 -0.64080 0.00000 -0.08442 1868 0.77793 0.00000 0.95138 1869 0.19859 0.00000 1.15908 1870 -0.05183 0.00000 -1.14542 1871 -0.47315 0.00000 -0.38872 1872 0.79464 0.00000 -0.92092 1873 0.53687 0.00000 -0.14862 1874 0.37211 0.00000 0.56388 1875 -0.36963 0.00000 -0.62362 1876 -0.26865 0.00000 -0.51092 1877 -0.43146 0.00000 -0.38342 1878 0.28096 0.00000 1.14588 1879 -0.45346 0.00000 -1.57402 1880 0.18490 0.00000 -0.53252 1881 -0.66477 0.00000 -1.58562 1882 0.57250 0.00000 2.30298 1883 0.21137 0.00000 0.30888 1884 0.30078 0.00000 1.22288 1885 0.03114 0.00000 -0.46502 1886 -0.02033 0.00000 -0.78322 1887 -0.02044 0.00000 0.29988 1888 -0.65230 0.00000 -1.63262 1889 -0.10629 0.00000 0.26688 1890 0.37219 0.00000 0.87208 1891 -0.18311 0.00000 -0.08112 1892 -0.13680 0.00000 -0.93132 1893 0.17798 0.00000 -0.73982 1894 0.44481 0.00000 0.84268 1895 -0.20426 0.00000 -1.54212 1896 -0.10787 0.00000 0.20528 1897 0.03687 0.00000 0.14838 1898 0.92794 0.00000 0.09918 1899 0.59136 0.00000 -0.28172 1900 0.10185 0.00000 -0.92962 1901 0.18074 0.00000 -0.16462 1902 -0.38233 -0.83270 -0.81072 1903 0.41406 0.69683 1.70558 1904 0.42569 0.26729 0.02348 1905 0.54357 0.43444 0.96628 1906 0.27364 0.36064 0.24878 1907 0.12422 0.26113 0.74058 1908 -0.07913 0.13539 0.47508 1909 -0.15538 -0.35168 -0.20452 1910 0.37880 0.55594 0.66528 1911 0.46313 0.53462 -0.39092 1912 -0.08025 -0.22657 0.07858 1913 0.48818 0.68899 1.41448 1914 0.56284 0.62093 1.16748 1915 -0.71652 -0.75092 -0.25992 1916 0.01178 -0.30713 -0.49512 1917 -0.33280 -0.53866 -1.38652 1918 0.44018 0.16839 0.24368 1919 -0.35341 -0.19024 0.06288 1920 0.49524 0.89784 0.88528 1921 0.44479 0.51017 0.69968 1922 -0.12566 -0.25237 0.44268 1923 -0.16490 -0.17349 0.21848 1924 -0.45374 -0.33710 -0.69002 1925 0.27275 0.23004 1.16068 1926 -0.39794 -0.11132 -0.17182 1927 -0.22630 -0.38692 0.15078 1928 -0.35481 -0.46441 -0.22492 1929 -0.07026 -0.31244 -0.30952 1930 0.53794 0.35559 0.71228 1931 -0.35003 -0.38102 0.02598 1932 0.02342 0.04019 0.04828 1933 0.23459 0.00835 0.25258 1934 0.81476 0.54473 -0.47332 1935 -0.01491 0.01447 0.34358 1936 0.14880 -0.05047 -1.15892 1937 0.22869 0.21434 0.62598 1938 0.41879 0.68283 0.23758 1939 -0.21006 0.01154 0.71688 1940 -1.31063 -0.77397 -1.30932 1941 -1.42272 -1.33816 -1.04232 1942 -1.22673 -0.90647 -0.79562 1943 0.26868 0.61055 0.39708 1944 -0.42456 0.21965 0.00208 1945 0.00434 0.18902 0.71638 1946 0.10657 -0.09871 -0.17852 1947 -0.48172 -0.69717 -1.48802 1948 0.17514 0.54173 0.57328 1949 1.02612 1.06120 1.19458 1950 0.37482 0.49100 0.87508 1951 0.56252 -0.03291 -0.42622 1952 -0.30035 -0.46245 0.03178 1953 0.58405 0.19238 -0.12632 1954 -0.20494 -0.01447 0.29898 1955 -0.63155 -0.54908 -0.69562 1956 -0.56763 -0.56166 -1.49062 1957 0.48600 0.25362 1.28818 1958 -0.38803 -0.57478 -0.48042 1959 0.70051 0.62188 0.22428 1960 -0.31039 -0.26181 -0.23272 1961 0.67695 0.53232 1.04478 1962 -0.61948 -0.50032 -0.69912 1963 -0.84530 -0.68886 -1.39772 1964 -0.05353 0.23762 -0.45982 1965 -0.62755 -0.37410 -0.66472 1966 -0.77343 -0.65802 -0.53142 1967 0.34799 0.57844 0.44818 1968 -0.58298 -0.08854 -0.24752 1969 -0.77394 -0.57676 -2.08122 1970 -0.46112 -0.23361 -0.69602 1971 0.47955 0.11800 -0.54462 1972 0.81408 0.60920 -0.11802 1973 0.63801 0.12489 0.77898 1974 1.09538 0.54592 0.10668 1975 1.04766 0.90333 0.72158 1976 0.49648 0.20340 0.45128 1977 0.14528 -0.14107 -0.72282 1978 -0.58039 -0.27100 0.19868 1979 -0.30189 -0.40751 -0.59292 1980 -0.41864 -0.38993 -0.06722 1981 0.00000 -0.13121 0.11268 1982 0.00000 0.48794 0.10888 1983 0.00000 0.65418 1.65958 1984 0.00000 0.44454 0.43368 1985 0.00000 -0.57564 -0.36012 1986 0.00000 -0.14964 -0.54012 1987 0.00000 -0.66642 0.84098 1988 0.00000 -0.03837 -0.18192 1989 0.00000 0.94762 1.48698 1990 0.00000 0.60873 1.37588 1991 0.00000 0.36672 -0.24672 1992 0.00000 0.75709 1.11108 1993 0.00000 0.06914 1.15478