cc: "Caesar, John" , "Thorne, Peter" , p.jones@uea.ac.uk, Keith Haines , Alan@met.reading.ac.uk, "Stott, Peter" , "Folland, Chris" , "Collins, Matthew" date: Wed, 30 May 2007 17:47:47 +0100 from: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk subject: Re: Royal Met Soc meeting on the 17th of October "Observing & to: "Tett, Simon" Dear All, This is a rough summary of the sorts of things I could cover although 20 minutes isn't long. Basically it's us what did it but there's still some things we need to understand. I'm not sure how long the abstract is expected to be or what you're all talking about so I thought I'd send this round now in it's present rough form for iteration. Thanks, Peter The widespread changes detected in temperature observations of the surface, free atmosphere, and ocean, together with consistent evidence of change in other parts of the climate system, strengthens the conclusion that greenhouse gas forcing is the dominant cause of warming during the past several decades. Such evidence led the IPCC AR4 report to conclude that "most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations". Discernible human influences extend beyond mean temperature changes to temperature extremes, wind patterns and changes in the hydrological cycle. The moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere has increased as expected with increasing temperatures, and it is likely that there has been a human influence on sea level rise, northern hemisphere Arctic sea ice decline and the observed widespread retreat of glaciers during the last century. Overall the pattern of observed changes paints a consistent picture of a climate system responding to anthropogenic forcing. For some climate variables, including northern hemisphere sea level pressure changes and Atlantic temperature and salinity changes, further work will be needed to better quantify the relative importance of external forcings of the climate system and natural internal variability in contributing to the observed changes. On Wed, 2007-05-23 at 21:10 +0100, Tett, Simon wrote: > All, > Thank you for all accepting Chris and I's invitation to speak at > this Royal Met Soc meeting. I was asked by the Society if I would be > willing to make this the Margary lecture. For an obituary on him written > by Manley (him of CET) see QJ 1976, vol 102. Margary seems to have been > one of the last of the great amateur met/climate observer. He also > pulled together a lot of Phenological information. After some thought I > agreed as I think the theme of our meeting is appropriate. This suggests > a structure as follows: > > 14:00-17:30 > > 14:00-14:05 Introduction -- Chris Folland. > > 14:05-14:25 Simon Tett:Margary lecture -- "Why observe Climate Change?" > -- I will try and include some Phenological ideas in here and make a > case for observing climate change. > > 14:25-14:55 Phil Jones > 14:55-15:20 Keith Haines > 15:20-15:45 John Caesar > 15:45-16:15 Tea/Coffee break > 16:15-16:40 Peter Thorne > 16:40-17:05 Alan O'Neil > 17:05-17:30 Peter Stott > > The idea is that everyone has 20 minutes to talk and 5 minutes for > questions. Chris chairs before Tea; me after. > > Chris and I would like you all to produce a preliminary abstract, in > particular so we can see how thoughts on detection are shaping up. That > way Peter Stott can get you to adjust your talks or you can him to > adjust his! We might also change the running order based on the > abstracts as well. Titles as well! The RMS would like us to settle > things by the 7th of June. I am on leave from Tuesday the 5th till > Monday the 11th June inclusive. So if you could send me (Simon) your > abstract by Monday the 4th of June I'd be grateful.... > > > Simon & Chris > > --------------- > Dr Simon Tett > Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) > Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB > Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 > Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 > ---------------------------------- > I am leaving the Met Office on the 22nd of June to become, from the 14th > of July, > Chair of Earth System Dynamics at the University of Edinburgh. > My new email address will be simon.tett@ed.ac.uk > and my new postal address is: > Grant Institute, The King's Buildings, > West Mains Road,Edinburgh EH9 3JW, UK > > >