cc: Myles Allen , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, Keith Briffa date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 13:07:13 -0500 (EST) from: hegerl@duke.edu subject: Re: Millenial Temperature Reconstruction Intercomparison and to: Martin Juckes Hi all, WIthout having looked at the proposal (my home day today, so can 't look), I have already looked into scaling various reconstructions with a nonbiased technique (tls), and find that it makes some difference particularly to records that don't correlate magnificently with the target of reconstruction. So my hope is to sell this as part of the plan, and write it up. But there also seems a real difference, Mann and jones for example even if tls scaled has less variance than Esper et al. because in that reconstruction, the early 20th century is probably the strongest excursion, while in Esper et al earlier variability is stronger. So there still is real differences in record. so what I hope to add to the proposal is stuff I have already well started, but needs to be checked more systematically, and written up). Tom and I also have a new reconstruciton taht is submitted for publication (apart from one last iteration with Cos) with tls and is quite similar to Moberg et al Gabi On Wed, 23 Feb 2005, Martin Juckes wrote: > > Hello, > > I've finally got around to sketching a rough plan of objectives and > deliverables. Given the small amount of money and the specific aims > there is not much room for innovative thinking, but hopefully the > work done within the poroject will be helpful to work which people > are already doing. > > Essentially, I'm proposing to assemble/get hold of a representative > proxy database and run a representative set of reconstruction methods > on the same data. > > The proposal has to be submitted before Thursday, March 10, so we have > two weeks to come up with it. > > A rough outline is attached. > > Martin > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- Gabriele Hegerl Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University, Durham NC 27708 phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html ---------------------------------------------------------------------