date: Thu, 30 Jul 1998 10:14:35 +0000 from: Sari Kovats subject: Re: infectious disease, climate change to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Dear Mike, I am sorry about this -- the document is now pasted in below. Sari *************WELLCOME PROPOSAL********************** 1. Applicant: Anthony J McMichael Co-applicant: Rosalind Stanwell-Smith (CDSC) Co-applicant: Laura Rodrigues (LSHTM) 2. Institution: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT. Source of institution's core funding: Higher Education Funding Council 3. Scientific Outline Proposed start date: March 1999 Period requested: 24 months Title: Assessment of the impact of recent climate change and climate variability on selected infectious diseases in Europe Aims of the project (hypothesis to be tested and experimental objectives): · Hypothesis: Changes in climate over the past two decades have affected the transmission, seasonality, or range of certain infectious diseases in Western Europe. · Main objective: Given that changes in climate within Europe have occurred over the past two decades (with documented regional differences), to determine if there have been accompanying changes in selected infectious diseases (e.g. water- and food-borne infections, including Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium). Two closely-related objectives are: a) to further develop research methods to detect and characterise the impact of climate/weather on selected non-vector-borne infectious diseases in Europe; and b) in light of this research, and recent moves by European agencies to initiate surveillance of the potential health impacts of long-term climate change, to make appropriate recommendations. Work which has led up to the project: Prof. McMichael has played a leading role internationally in defining and developing the research strategies applicable to the assessment of current and future health impacts of climate change. Since 1993, he has chaired the scientific panel assessing this topic for the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He has investigated the relationship between climate and malaria outbreaks in West Rajasthan, and, in a preliminary analysis with Dr Rodrigues, between weather events and cryptosporidiosis cases in the UK. Dr Rodrigues has extensive experience in developing research methods in the study of infectious diseases, and, in particular, food-borne and water-related diarrhoea in England. Dr Stanwell-Smith is an expert on surveillance data and has a particular interest in the surveillance of water-related diseases; she and Prof. McMichael are members of a recently-commissioned WHO Working Group on the early detection of health impacts of climate change in Europe. Experimental design and methods to be used in investigating the problem: Global climate change (for which climate scientists have now adduced "discernible evidence") is a prime manifestation of world population growth, urbanisation, and increasing economic activity. Climate conditions and weather variations are important in the transmission of certain infectious diseases, and changes in climate can affect the seasonality and range of such diseases. This study will use recent and ongoing infectious disease surveillance data to describe climate/health relationships and determine if these have been affected by recent changes in climate within Europe. From existing knowledge of how climatic factors (e.g. temperature) affect transmission, the potential future impacts of climate change on various tropical vector-borne disease patterns have been modelled by scientists elsewhere. However, there is a dearth of empirical evidence, particularly in temperate-zone countries, of how medium-term changes in climate might actually have begun to affect patterns of infection. Design: The composite study will examine relationships between climate factors and infectious disease in the UK and other countries throughout Europe, including Scandinavia. Countries will be selected by the availability of data as well as to maximize contrasts in climates and rates of warming. Time series data of infectious disease cases will be obtained from national disease surveillance centres and regional networks. Appropriate geographical and temporal resolution will be used to aggregate data and link the datasets. Climate data will be obtained from the internationally prominent Climatic Research Unit, Univ. of East Anglia (Dr M Hulme). Observed warming and associated ecological impacts have been greatest at high latitudes, including Europe. Rainfall has increased at higher latitudes and spring is arriving earlier in Europe. Since climate change impacts would amplify, or add to, other ongoing trends that arise out of changes in human ecology and social behaviour, information will be obtained on confounding and interacting factors. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Sari Kovats Research Fellow Epidemiology Unit Department of Epidemiology & Population Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Keppel St London WC1E 7HT UK Tel: +44 (0)171 927 2078 Fax: +44 (0)171 580 6897 email: s.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk +++++++++++++++++++++++++++