cc: wigley@ncar.ucar.edu date: Fri, 21 May 1999 16:26:49 -0600 (MDT) from: Tom Wigley subject: Re: use of mag.for to: Mike Hulme Dear Mike, At first blush, I am not happy with your project idea for the Nuffield student. The reason is two-fold. First, Sarah and I have already done a lot of work on this. We have yet to write it up, but it is described in various Progress Reports to USDOE. Second, it is not as easy as one might think. It is not correct to do a straight-forward Monte Carlo analysis. What we did was use a form of Latin Hypercube Sampling that I invented, which I called something like "exhaustive fractile sampling". I wrote a bunch of code to carry out these analyses. Related to these issues is one of "turf". Sarah, in particular, would feel that, by moving into this area, you are encroaching on her territory --- I would feel the same way, but not so sensitively. The point here is that we *do* plan to write this work up eventually. We also would be concerned that it should be done "right" --- i.e., following our methodology. On the other hand, if the subject/idea is approached with tact, this student might be able to help accelerate the publication process, if he/she were properly directed by Sarah. Any publication that arose would, of course, have to have Sarah and me as authors one and two --- but I am perfectly happy to have any number of co-authors provided they contribute substantively to the work. One problem with this is that you'd have to use some of my code. I can track this down and send it to you, but the learning curve for its use might be steep. I will be in CRU from the end of June onwards, but I couldn't really help until then. I suggest, therefore, that you talk this over with Sarah. If she is happy, then I will be too. Cheers, Tom On Fri, 21 May 1999, Mike Hulme wrote: > Tom, > > A very bright 2nd year ENV undergraduate has won a Nuffield summer bursary > to work with me on a climate project. He would like to use your model to > explore the effect of different emissions targets under the 4 SRES worlds, > and express the dT and dSL as distributions following a pseudo-Monte Carlo > analysis varying as inputs - emissions, climate sensitivity and carbon sink > strength. > > He could do this using MAGICC, but it would be more efficient for him to > use the original FORTRAN code. Would you be happy for him to do so? And > can I ask Sarah for a copy? It would be the SAR version and not any later > updates you and Sarah have/will made/make. He would only use it here at > UEA, within the context of this Nuffield project. > > Thanks, > > Mike > > ***************************************************************************** > Dr Mike Hulme > Reader in Climatology tel: +44 1603 593162 > Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 > School of Environmental Science email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk > University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ > Norwich NR4 7TJ > ***************************************************************************** > Annual mean temperature in Central England during 1999 > is about +1.6 deg C above the 1961-90 average > *************************************************** > The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly for 1998 > was +0.57 deg C above the 1961-90 average, the warmest year yet recorded > ***************************************************************************** > ********************************************************** *Tom M.L. Wigley * *Senior Scientist * *National Center for Atmospheric Research * *P.O. Box 3000 * *Boulder, CO 80307-3000 * *USA * *Phone: 303-497-2690 * *Fax: 303-497-2699 * *E-mail: wigley@ucar.edu * **********************************************************