date: Thu Sep 21 09:32:31 2000
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Abstract
to: MIKAMI Takehiko <mikami@comp.metro-u.ac.jp>


 Takehiko,
     Here, in haste, is a brief abstract for the meeting.

 Meteorological Observations at Dejima from the viewpoint of diagnosing
 longer timescale climatic changes 

 Phil Jones, CRU, UEA, UK

 During the 20th century the temperature of the world has warmed by 0.6 C.
 Many scientists believe that much of this warming is related to the 
 build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, to place the
 warming in a longer context requires the development of indicators of
 past change, particularly over the last millennium. Evidence of past changes
 is derived from natural (tree ring, ice cores, corals, sediments, glacier
 advances/retreats etc.) and historical (documents, diaries and offical
 accounts) archives. Proxy sources of this kind require calibration against
 instrumental records. In many parts of the world available thermometric
 data only extends back to the late 19th century, but earlier measurements
 for some regions may be hidden in European archives. Early instrumental
 data is the ultimate proxy source as it enables climate variability to be
 assessed for the whole annual cycle, rather than the growing season which
 is generally all that is possible from most natural archives.

 For Japan, China and Korea there is a wealth of historical and natural
 proxy evidence, but calibration against instrumental data is difficult as
 there is often little overlap between the two sources of information.
 Extending the instrumental record (as for Dejima) will enable the potential 
 of the long 'official' Japanese diary sources (which extend back to AD 1600)
 to be realised. 

 The talk will discuss many of the issues and show the results of the latest
 compilations of proxy evidence for the last millennium, work that is
 begining to rewrite our understanding of the period and challenging the
 accepted view (a Medieval Warm Period from AD 900-1200 and a Little Ice
 Age from AD 1450-1850). As we gain more evidence from different proxies
 and diverse regions the 'North Atlantic/European' evidence appears less
 appropriate from a global-scale viewpoint. The new studies show that the
 20th century was both the warmest of the millennium and the warming
 during it unprecedented over the last 1000 years.


  Hope this is OK

 Cheers
 Phil