cc: Francis Zwiers , Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa , "Susan Solomon" date: Fri, 3 Mar 2006 11:09:13 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: gabi's 1500-year reconstruction to: Gabi Hegerl Hi Gabi - I suspect part of their goal is to distract/exhaust the scientists. But, that won't work in the long run, and if they keep making poorly reasoned assertions, the resultonly make the science more clear and strong to the general audience. So, keep up the good work. Best, peck Thanks Peck - as soon as the nature paper comes out, I'll then just reply positively to supporting data requests by the Macs, even though they do strange things to reonstrctions. (Tom just doing Crowley-Lowery without Bristlecone pines since they showed what they think that looks like which was totally uncredible (removing one of ~10 simply averaged stdized records can not dramatically change the appearance of the curve , and definitely not kill the trend at the end if nearly all series show it!) Gabi Jonathan Overpeck wrote: Re: gabi's 1500-year reconstruction Hi Francis (and Gabi when you get back on email) - got your email in the middle of the night, and figured Gabi didn't need a call even later her time. Basically, since it's published in Nature (in press), it seems fine to keep it in our chapter. M&M will have to go to original authors for the supporting material they require - the IPCC isn't set up to do that for the thousands of publications we have to access. Of course, we hope the J.Clim paper is in press soon too. Obviously quite worthy. I have cc'd Susan Solomon too, so she has an inkling of the issues raised. Thanks and hope your final push is going well. At this stage, Chap 6 is pretty much done, except for tidying up those pesky references. Best, peck Hi Peck, I just got a call from Gabi, who spent the day in Washington at that NAS panel on the hockey stick. She doesn't have access to e-mail today, and so asked me to convey a message. McIntyre and McKittrick were there, and seem to have left Gabi with the strong impression that they will be insisting on having access to supporting data, etc., used to build reconstructions. Gabi says that this is making her nervous, wants to make sure that you are aware of the status of her reconstruction, and wants to be sure that you are comfortable with continuing to use it in Ch 6. She says that if you feel it necessary to exclude her reconstruction from your SOD of Ch 6, you should do so. The reconstruction is used in her Nature paper on sensitivity, which has been accepted, but the Nature paper does not describe the reconstruction or the supporting data in any detail. There is a paper under review at J. Climate that does do that (which is cited in the Nature paper), but unfortunately, an editorial decision is still pending. I hope that I've conveyed her message correctly. If you have a few minutes, it might be a good idea to give Gabi a call on her cell at bit later this evening (919 451 2773). Cheers, Francis PS - hope things are progressing with your chapter. Things are a bit hectic here! -- Francis Zwiers, Chief Canadian Ctr for Climate Modelling and Analysis Climate Research Division, Environment Canada c/o University of Victoria PO Box 1700, STN CSC Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2 Phone: (250)363-8229 Fax: (250)363-8247 Web: [1]http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 [2]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ [3]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: [4]hegerl@duke.edu, [5]http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/